Will BMC polls be the perfect storm for Uddhav Thackeray’s tottering Sena?

Since the BMC came under the state government administrator in March 2022 after the end of the previous civic body leadership’s tenure, the Shiv Sena has vertically split, with 43 of the undivided party’s corporators siding with Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, whose party has the rights to the Sena name and symbol. Among the notable names to have defected to the Shiv Sena are prominent corporators such as Ameya Ghole, Samadhan Sarvankar, Sheetal Mhatre, Yashvant Jadhav, Raju Pednekar, Suvarna Karanje, and Snehal Shinde.

“Rebuilding this lost ground-level connection is perhaps the biggest hurdle now,” said Mumbai University researcher Dr Sanjay Patil, an expert on the Sena. “The loss of corporators isn’t just symbolic, it cripples the party’s infrastructure at the ward level. Without a strong local base, even the most charismatic leadership struggles to translate popularity into votes. And access to power is crucial in civic politics. Many in the Sena (UBT) are considering switching sides to remain relevant.”

The Sena (UBT), which is a part of the Mahayuti, took a hit in the Assembly elections, with all of its 10 MLAs from seats in Mumbai. However, the desertion by corporators is proving to be damaging, hollowing out the organisation on the ground. This has left the party’s structure in disarray, right from shakha pramukhs to local booth-level workers, and the party is finding it difficult to find suitable replacements.

“It is difficult for corporators to stay relevant without being in power and without strong leaders on the ground, it is nearly impossible to motivate workers and voters,” said a former corporator who continues to be associated with the Sena (UBT).

A former shakha pramukh in the city’s Dadar area agreed with this view, saying, “Many of us feel abandoned. The leadership is distant and the party’s direction remains unclear. Without firm guidance or local support, it’s hard to keep the cadre motivated.”

The Sena (UBT)’s struggles also extend to its youth wing Yuva Sena, once the party’s vibrant engine. The outfit’s president is Aaditya Thackeray. “The Yuva Sena leadership is charismatic but distant. They rarely engage with workers unless elections loom. Meanwhile, the rival camp attends every local function, building networks,” said a party worker who did not wish to be identified.

Walking the ideological tightrope

The party’s ideological positioning in an attempt to broaden its voter base has also not gone down well with several party workers and leaders, with several questioning the effect it has had on the party’s traditional Marathi-Hindutva voter base.

“The core voter of the Sena is the urban middle-class Marathi who follows Hindutva ideology. With the party’s stance on several issues, people are confused about whom to support, Shinde or Thackeray,” said a Sena voter in Mumbai’s Parel area.

However, despite its many problems, several Sena (UBT) workers are drawing a sense of optimism from the belief that their party still commands significant emotional support among parts of Mumbai’s electorate, especially Marathi voters, because of the way the party was split and how the Election Commission (EC) awarded the party name and symbols to Shinde. These leaders hope it may translate into votes.

“All those who have switched sides had no work to show and were lured by the other side. But the Mumbaikar and Shiv Sainiks are still Uddhav Saheb and they have seen how Uddhav ji has worked during Covid when he was CM and in the past 25 years in Mumbai. All this will reflect in the BMC polls,” said former BMC corporator Anil Kokil who is now with the party.

There is also a feeling in a section of the party that its vocal opposition to projects it deems a threat to the city’s character — the Aarey car shed and Dharavi redevelopment project — plays well with the traditional Marathi constituency. “This is about the soul of Mumbai, not just infrastructure,” said a senior Sena (UBT) leader.

However, some party insiders cautioned that “sympathy” was not a sound political strategy. “It must be backed by local presence, credible candidates, and real voter engagement,” said a local leader.

Some Sena (UBT) functionaries said that if Uddhav Thackeray and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray, his estranged cousin, came together his estranged cousin Raj, their combined force could consolidate the Marathi vote and become a game-changer. The MNS, though not a significant political factor statewide, had a 7.73% vote share in the last BMC election and won seven seats.

“If the two cousins come together, there will be rejuvenation in the party ranks, and we will be victorious. Knowing this, serious efforts are underway behind the scenes to facilitate a patch-up. We know we are in a weakened position and can’t afford vote splits among Marathi voters,” said a Sena (UBT) functionary.

However, reconciliation may be tricky as key MNS leaders, including Sandip Deshpande, are opposed to the idea. The Sena (UBT) also has to consider that while reunification may consolidate Marathi votes, it risks alienating minority communities and others whom it has assiduously reached out to in the past few years to broaden its base. This complex task of simultaneously appealing to Marathi Hindutva voters and Muslims complicates electoral calculations.

“The question is not just about winning the polls, it is whether the Sena (UBT) can stand up to the current political challenge with its weakened identity, credibility, and political future,” said Patil.