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Journalism of Courage
Messages celebrating the Bharat Ratna for Chaudhary Charan Singh flank roads all through Baghpat. Some have been put up by the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a reincarnation of the party Charan Singh founded; others by the BJP. What it means for Uttar Pradesh’s newest allies, though, is not as clear.
Voters of the RLD, whose base is restricted to this Jat belt in western Uttar Pradesh, are waiting and watching as to how much space Charan Singh’s grandson and the party’s leader, Jayant Chaudhary, gets in the alliance with the domineering BJP.
And, it may all come down to Baghpat, the traditional Lok Sabha seat of “the Chaudhary family”. With the specifics of the RLD-BJP alliance not clear yet, it has not escaped the notice of voters that hoardings have come up at several strategic points in Baghpat declaring: “Lehar badi karari hai, hamara Satya Pal sab par bhari hai. (There is a strong wave, our Satya Pal is stronger than all the others).”
The reference is to Satya Pal Singh, the two-time sitting BJP MP from Baghpat, and a local hero, having retired as Mumbai Police Commissioner.
Satya Pal’s two wins have both come against the Chaudhary family – against Jayant in 2019 by 23,000-plus votes; and a more comprehensive win against Jayant’s father Ajit Singh in 2014, relegating him to the third position.
“Our claim is strong because Satya Palji is the sitting MP. He has got development works done here — from highways to Railways. If he gets the Baghpat ticket, he will certainly win with a big margin after the support of the RLD. There will be no division of Jat votes,” says a local BJP leader.
Counters RLD district president Rampal Dhama: “If Satya Pal is a two-time MP, Bade Chaudhary (Ajit Singh) was a six-term MP from Baghpat. Charan Singh was also an MP from here… If not here, where will the RLD contest from?”
Making a case for Jayant, Dhama adds: “We are sure that the RLD will get the Baghpat Lok Sabha seat.”
The uncertainty
However, while Jayant indicated a change in loyalty from the Samajwadi Party (which is in the INDIA bloc) to the NDA within hours of the Bharat Ratna announcement, he is still waiting for that photo-op with BJP big leaders sealing the deal. Rumours of the RLD being promised two seats have not been confirmed by either side, neither is it clear if these would be Baghpat and Bijnor.
The SP had promised the RLD seven Lok Sabha seats, before Jayant ended that tie-up.
The RLD ranks are clearly anxious. A leader says the party was strong without the BJP as well. “A change happened here in social alignment after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, with the gap between the Muslims and Jats increasing. That was a big reason behind our losses in 2014. But both are together again,” the leader says, pointing out that the party’s vote share had risen in 2019, when it contested the Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the SP and BSP.
The Baghpat constituency has nearly 16 lakh voters, with Jats the largest chunk at 4.5 lakh of the population, followed by Muslims (3.5 lakh), Gujjars (1.5 lakh) and Brahmins (1.5 lakh). Upper castes, OBCs and Dalits form the rest of the numbers.
Other Lok Sabha seats in the region – Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bijnore, Ghaziabad, Nagina, Bulandshahr, Mathura, Aligarh, Hathras, Agra and Moradabad – are almost similar in the dominance of Jats and Muslims.
This is why the RLD’s move could hurt the INDIA coalition more, splitting the Jat-Muslim consolidation, than help the BJP, which has been getting the support of Gujjars as well as other background groups, apart from upper castes.
In the 2022 Assembly polls, when the RLD-SP had an alliance, for example, of the five Assembly segments in the Baghpat Lok Sabha seat – Chhaprauli, Baraut, Baghpat, Siwalkhas and Modi Nagar – the RLD had won only Chhaprauli and Siwalkhas, with the BJP winning the other three.
In fact, in only three Lok Sabha elections, 2009, 2004 and 1999, has the RLD won any seat. Currently, the party’s sole member in Parliament is Jayant, who was elected to the Rajya Sabha in May 2023 as a joint SP-RLD candidate.
In the 2022 Assembly polls, when the SP and RLD fought as allies, the RLD won 8 of the 33 seats it contested. In the 25 seats that the RLD lost, the BJP was by far the dominant party, winning all of them.
BJP western UP region spokesperson Gajendra Sharma suggests there is still an “if” about the RLD. “Any comment can be made only after our party leadership gives a confirmation on the alliance. As of now, we are preparing for Lok Sabha elections on every seat, including Baghpat.”
The Charan Singh effect
Given the late farmer leader’s hold across western UP, and extending to Rajasthan and poll-bound Haryana, BJP leaders describe the Modi government’s Bharat Ratna to Charan Singh as a “masterstroke”.
BJP posters on the same make it a point to thank PM Modi. The RLD’s are careful to express gratitude to “Bharat Sarkar”, making no mention of Modi.
Jaiveer Singh, a Jat farmer from Badoli village in Baraut, dismisses Bharat Ratna as a factor. “Chaudhary Charan Singhji has always been our stalwart leader. Why did the BJP not recognise his contribution for the past 10 years? Doing this just before the elections shows their objective is political,” he says.
RLD Baghpat district president Rampal Dhama is more nuanced: “This honour for Charan Singh was due for a long time… People across all castes and communities distributed gud (jaggery) to celebrate the Bharat Ratna.”
BJP spokesperson Gajendra Sharma denies the honour had political intent, accusing past Congress governments of ignoring Charan Singh.
‘Dishaheen’ Muslim vote
In the wake of the 2022 Assembly poll results, returning the BJP to power, Jayant had organised a ‘Samrasta Abhiyan’ in western UP in May-June 2023, to foster “social harmony” as well as a “Dalit-Muslim-Jat amalgamation”.
His decision to go with the BJP is particularly shocking for the Muslim community, which backed the RLD in both the 2022 Assembly and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
“RLD-BJP gathbandhan ke baad Muslim dishaheen ho gaya hai (The Muslims are directionless after the RLD-BJP alliance),” says Haroon Pradhan, a Muslim Jat of Baghpat’s Osikka village, three-fourth of whose population is Muslim, adding that he won’t vote for the alliance even if the RLD gets the Baghpat seat. “Giving vote to the RLD means voting for the BJP.”
Acknowledging that the RLD has allied with the BJP in the past too (the 2009 Lok Sabha polls), Haroon says things have changed. “The BJP was different then. After 2014, the gap has widened between Hindus and Muslims… interaction has decreased. Earlier there was the issue of only one masjid in Ayodhya, now there are conflicts on several mosques.”
The RLD had not lasted long with the BJP at the time, despite winning five seats, its best Lok Sabha tally ever. It had crossed sides and joined the Manmohan Singh-led UPA II government.
Contrary to Haroon, Mohd Yaseen, who also belongs to Osikka, says he may vote for the RLD if the Baghpat seat goes to the party. “I am a supporter of the Chaudhary family. If Jayant or an RLD leader contests, I will vote for the nalka (the RLD election symbol ‘hand pump’). But if the seat goes to the BJP and Jayant campaigns for it, I will vote for the SP,” Yaseen says.
Mohd Shakeel of Idrasipur village says: “BJP leaders do not address our problems. If the MP is of the BJP, RLD leaders too can’t help us.”
RLD district leader Dhama says the concerns are misplaced. “Is PM Modi not working for the Muslims? Everyone is getting benefits under ‘Sabka saath, sabka vikas and sabka viswas‘. The RLD is a party of all communities,” he says.
Rajendra Dhama of Gayatripuram in the Baghpat Assembly segment, who is an ex-Army man, has another theory. He says with the anti-BJP vote now consolidating behind the SP and Congress, the INDIA bloc could gain.
Harpal Singh, a Jat farmer belonging to Halalpur village in Chhaprauli, is not impressed with the RLD-BJP alliance either, his anger directed at the Modi government’s Agniveer Army recruitment scheme.
Traditionally an RLD supporter, Harpal says: “I voted for the BJP in 2014 to remove the corrupt Congress from power. In 2019, I voted for it following the Pulwama attack (on CRPF personnel, in Kashmir). But enough now. The BJP is splitting Opposition parties. The RLD did anti-BJP politics for 10 years and has now joined it… I will vote for the SP.”
Post-farmers’ protest
As far as timing goes, the RLD and BJP couldn’t have had it worse. Days after Jayant announced he was joining the NDA, Punjab farmers started their protest demanding that MSP be legalised, and came under heavy crackdown by the BJP-led Haryana government, with Central forces providing back-up.
While there is sympathy in the largely agrarian western UP region for the protest, so far there is no monetary or physical rallying behind the agitation. Locals say no meetings have been held calling farmers to move towards Delhi or to raise funds. BKU leader Naresh Tikait backed the Grameen Bharat Bandh called by farm unions on Friday, but said he would take a call later on whether to participate in the protest held by Punjab farmers or not.
Silent this time, the RLD had participated in the 2020-21 agitation against the three Central farm laws, which were later repealed.
Waiting with his sugarcane stock outside Baghpat Cooperative Sugar Mills Limited in the Baghpat Assembly area, Mahesh Sharma says the timing of the farmers’ agitation, just before the polls, makes it appear “politically motivated”. While Sharma, a Brahmin, believes Jayant is sure to gain from tying up with the BJP, he questions his silence on the issue. “Jayant should speak in support of the farmers,” he says.
Devendra Gurjar of Santoshpur village, who is also in the queue outside the mill, says that the Punjab protesters are rich farmers. “I am a small farmer. I support them, but I don’t have time for an agitation. This is the sugarcane sale season.”
Rajendra Singh, a Jat farmer of Halalpur village, says: “The demand for MSP is genuine, but since no leader from UP is taking a stand in support of the agitation, we are waiting and watching.”
The RLD’s Dhama is also counting on this. “As of now, there is no strong support in Baghpat for the current agitation.”
