Maharashtra Exit Polls 2024 Live Updates: In Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti coalition will face off against the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). (Express Photos by Deepak Joshi and Pradip Das)Maharashtra Exit Polls 2024: Soon after the Maharashtra polling ended on Wednesday, pollsters were quick to publish their exit poll results. An analysis of nine exit polls shows Mahayuti is leading the charge with pollsters giving it 118 to 175 seats, while MVA struggles with numbers as low as 69. Three polls suggest a hung house, indicating no clear majority. With Mahayuti showing promise but MVA still in the mix, the political landscape remains uncertain.
While most surveys showed the Mahayuti crossing the halfway-mark in the 288-member Assembly, the MVA are expected to get between 90 and 150 seats. However, one needs to always remember that this is just an indication and in 2019, too, most polls had missed the mark, predicting a landslide victory for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Here’s how the surveys stack up this time:
Also Read: Maharashtra records 45.53% turnout, 61.47% voting in Jharkhand in Phase 2 till 3 pm
| Survey | Mahayuti | MVA | Others |
| P-MARQ | 137-157 | 126-146 | 02-08 |
| People’s Pulse | 175-195 | 85-112 | 7-12 |
| Matrize | 150-170 | 110-130 | 8-10 |
| Lokshahi-Marathi Rudra | 128-142 | 125-140 | 18-23 |
| JVC | 150-167 | 107-125 | 13-14 |
| Chanakya | 152-160 | 130-138 | 6-8 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 125-140 | 135-150 | 20-25 |
| Electoral Edge | 118 | 150 | 20 |
| Poll Diary | 122-186 | 69-121 | 10-27 |
Women votes to play a crucial role in the Maharashtra election results tomorrow. While overall voter turnout increased by 4.7 percentage points to 66.05, women voter turnout for the state rose by almost 6 percentage points to 65.21.
The local administration on Thursday said all arrangements, including a robust three-tier security system, have been made for Saturday's counting of votes polled in the 21 Maharashtra assembly constituencies in Pune district.
Voting for the 288-member assembly concluded on November 20.
"We have a total of 21 constituencies in Pune district. Of these, the counting of votes for eight constituencies in Pune city will take place at Food Corporation of India (FCI) godown in the Koregaon Park area.
Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole's remark that a Congress-led Maha Vikas Agahdi government will be formed in the state has not gone down well with ally Shiv Sena (UBT), whose leader Sanjay Raut on Thursday said the chief ministerial face will be decided by the alliance partners.
“A Maha Vikas Aghadi government will be formed in Maharashtra under the leadership of the Congress. The trends suggest that Congress will get the maximum number of seats,” Patole had said Wednesday, after polling in the state assembly elections.
Raut said the Maha Vikas Aghadi will form the government, but the chief ministerial face will be decided jointly by the MVA alliance partners.
All EVMs and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) devices used in Mumbai during the Maharashtra polls have been stored in strong rooms, one each in the city's 36 constituencies, the civic body said on Thursday. Elections to the 288-member state assembly were held in a single phase on Wednesday and votes will be counted on Saturday. (PTI)
As Maharashtra votes Wednesday, some ripples are still being felt in distant Punjab. The Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), whose problems have been mounting proportional to its election losses, has been left wringing its hands over the fact that the influential religious group Damdami Taksal backed its former ally BJP in the Maharashtra elections.
While top SAD leaders did not foray into the row, its general secretary and spokesperson Parambans Singh Romana commented: “Damdami Taksal Mukhi Baba Harnam Singh Dhuma extends support to BJP in Maharashtra. Just look at the level to which BJP has penetrated Sikh institutions. What a fall!”
Damdami Taksal head Harnam Singh Dhuma announced the organisation’s support for the ‘Sikh Samaj Maharashtra’ body, which appealed to Sikhs to vote for the BJP in the state.
Mumbai recorded an overall voter turnout of 54.52 per cent in the November 20 assembly polls, up from the 52.79 per cent recorded in the 2019 edition, as per data made available by Election Commission of India on Thursday.
The voting percentage in the island city was 52.65 per cent, up from 48.40 per cent in 2019, while it was 56.39 per cent in the suburban district, a dip from 57.19 per cent in 2019.
The country's financial capital has 36 assembly constituencies, of which 10 are in the island city and the remaining in the suburban district.
As per EC data, Bhandup West led with a polling percentage of 62.88 per cent, while Colaba was last with 44.44 per cent of the registered voters making their way to the booths on Wednesday.
The EC data highlighted that in the 2019 assembly elections, six of the 10 constituencies in the island city had recorded less than 50 per cent voter turnout, with Colaba once again at the bottom with 40.13 per cent. - PTI
The Mumbai police on Thursday issued an order prohibiting any assembly of people in 300-metre radius of all the 36 counting centres in the city.
Elections to the 288-member Maharashtra assembly were held on Wednesday and votes will be counted on Saturday.
Mumbai comprises 36 assembly constituencies.
No person, other than an official engaged with the election process or public servant engaged in duty, shall loiter or form any assembly within 300 metres radius from any counting centre, a police official said.
The order is effective from 6 am on November 21 till midnight on November 24, the police said.
Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis credited the increased voter turnout in the assembly polls to pro-incumbency and voter affinity towards the BJP-led Mahayuti government.
Fadnavis expressed confidence in the alliance's ability to retain power, citing schemes like Ladki Bahin for boosting women’s participation.
Talking to reporters at the Nagpur airport, Fadnavis said, "The voting percentage in Maharashtra has increased, and whenever this happens, it favours BJP and alliance parties. We expect that it will benefit us and we will form a government." When asked about the possible reasons behind the rise in the voter turnout, he said, "I feel the percentage of voting increased due to pro-incumbency and the feeling of affinity that voters have for the government." Also, it cannot be ignored that the rise in the turnout of women voters was possibly due to the Ladki Bahin scheme, he added.
According to figures released by the Election Commission of India (ECI), Pune district achieved an overall voting percentage of 61.05 in Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024, which is higher than the 57.10 per cent recorded in 2019.
However, this figure is slightly lower than the 61.9 per cent registered in 2014. Almost all Assembly constituencies in Pune marked an increase in voting percentage, demonstrating the enthusiasm of the people to participate in the electoral process, said Collector Suhas Diwase.
“We carried out massive drives to enrol voters. Over 7 lakh voters were added to the rolls from January 23. The increased voting percentage is also a result of the same,” he said... Continue reading
State Minister Deepak Kesarkar, addressing exit poll predictions for the Maharashtra elections on Thursday, stated, "my prediction is that we will cross 160 (seats) and 10-15 independents may join us...CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis along with Ajit dada took a lot of effort to see that we could win. The kind of welfare measures we have approved made a great impact. Ajit dada went to all regions of Maharashtra...."
Police have registered a case against around 40 individuals for allegedly vandalising three polling booths in Ghatnandur, Beed district, during Maharashtra assembly polls. Armed with sticks and sharp weapons, the accused injured police personnel and damaged EVMs.
"A video of Madhav Jadhav, a local leader of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), being beaten up at Kanherwadi village in the constituency had earlier gone viral. Following that, 50 to 60 persons came with wooden sticks and weapons, and vandalised the polling booths set up in Someshwar School, a Zilla Parishad (ZP) school and another ZP school for girls around 1.30 pm on Wednesday," the official said.
Charges include attempt to murder, causing hurt, and using criminal force against public servants under the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita and election laws. (PTI)
A day after the Maharashtra assembly polls, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut expressed confidence that the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will secure a majority with 160-165 seats out of 288.
"We and our allies, including smaller parties like the PWP, Samajwadi Party, the Left parties are crossing the majority mark. We are winning 160-165 seats. There will be a stable government in the state. I can say it very confidently," Raut told reporters. (PTI)
With voting set to be completed on Wednesday across all 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra and the 38 remaining of Jharkhand’s total 81 seats, all eyes are now on the forthcoming exit polls.
In 2019, the exit polls had missed the mark in the Maharashtra Assembly polls, predicting a landslide win for the then BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, but accurately predicted that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance would make the most of then ruling BJP’s anti-incumbency and coming to power.
In Maharashtra, an average of seven exit polls put the BJP-led NDA’s tally at 207, well clear of the 145-seat majority mark in the Assembly, and the Congress-NCP alliance’s tally at 65, with the remaining 16 seats predicted to go to Independents and other parties.
On average, these polls overestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena’s combined performance by 46 seats, while underestimating the Congress-NCP’s outcome by 33 seats.
The NDA ended up with 161 seats, but was unable to form a government after the alliance could not reach a power-sharing agreement. The Shiv Sena then joined forces with the Congress and NCP, whose combined tally was 98, to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. Reported by Anjishnu Das
It’s neck-and-neck between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra this time as exit polls showed a gripping contest between the parties. Although most surveys gave the ruling Shiv Sena-BJP-NCP alliance an edge, the Opposition is not too far away.
In the highly competitive and intensely fought Maharashtra assembly elections of 2024, politicians from the ruling coalition are trying their best to gather the support of the ladki behenas (beloved sisters), while their opponents are trying equally hard to reach out to their own versions of the ladka voters.
We tried to focus on the ladka netas, or the political elites in the state of Maharashtra. Much of the media glare is on popular leaders like Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, or former CM Uddhav Thackeray, veteran Maratha leader Sharad Pawar, his rebellious nephew Ajit “Dada” Pawar, Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, and others who are all playing a crucial role in these elections.
However, our focus is on the political elites, who have been able to hold on to their bastions or constituencies for a long period, becoming entrenched in local politics, so much so that they tend to dominate politics at the local level, creating their own pockets of influence or what could be called their respective fiefdoms, emerging as the ladka netas in their respective regions. Continue reading...Opinion piece by Sarthak Bagchi, Firasha Shaikh, Ashish Ranjan
A major political controversy hit Maharashtra just hours before the state voted in the Assembly elections on Wednesday. Former IPS officer Ravindranath Patil claimed to possess voice recordings, allegedly of NCP (SP) MP Supriya Sule and Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole, showing that cash converted from Bitcoins seized by the Pune police in a cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme investigation was used to fund the election campaign.
Both Sule and Patole strongly denied the allegations, calling them baseless, while the BJP, which was itself embroiled in cash-for-votes allegations involving senior leader Vinod Tawde on Tuesday, demanded a thorough investigation into the matter.
At the heart of this controversy are two cryptocurrency investigations by the Pune police: the Ponzi scheme case, in which Patil worked as an expert forensic auditor in 2018; and the 2022 Bitcoin misappropriation case, in which Patil himself was accused of embezzling Bitcoins seized during the Ponzi scheme probe. Read
Voters came out in huge numbers in Maharashtra’s battle of the alliances Wednesday where the turnout, according to data available at 11.45 pm, crossed 65.1 per cent — the first time since 1995 when the state witnessed a turnout of 71.69 per cent.
The turnout was way above the 61.39 per cent recorded in Maharashtra during the Lok Sabha elections this year, and the 61.4 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections.
In Jharkhand, where the JMM-led alliance is battling the BJP-led NDA bloc, the turnout was 68.45 per cent. Read
After the polling for the 288 constituencies in the state assembly elections closed on Wednesday evening, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis met RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat in Nagpur. Sources speculate that the meeting could have been to offer his gratitude for helping the BJP with its door-to-door campaigns.
Highly placed sources in the party confirmed the fact, saying, “Fadnavis personally visited RSS headquarters at Mahal area in Nagpur. He held a brief meeting with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat.”
What exactly transpired between the two has been kept closely under wraps. But insiders in the RSS indicated, “ Fadnavis’ visit should be seen as a courtesy visit to express gratitude to the RSS for its significant role in campaigning for the BJP in the assembly elections.”
Voters came out in huge numbers in Maharashtra’s battle of the alliances Wednesday where the turnout, according to data available at 11.45 pm, crossed 65.1 per cent — the first time since 1995 when the state witnessed a turnout of 71.69 per cent.
The turnout was way above the 61.39 per cent recorded in Maharashtra during the Lok Sabha elections this year, and the 61.4 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections.
In Jharkhand, where the JMM-led alliance is battling the BJP-led NDA bloc, the turnout was 68.45 per cent.
The rise in voter turnout in Maharashtra is being attributed to the fierce campaign undertaken by the ruling Mahayuti and Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and could become a key factor in a close contest. During the Lok Sabha elections, the three parties in the Mahayuti — BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP — polled an aggregate of 42.71 per cent votes, while the three key partners in the Maha Vikas Aghadi — Congress, Shiv Sena UBT and NCP SP — together polled 43.91 per cent votes. Read Full Report
In the last sixty years the highest ever polling in Maharashtra took place in the 1995, recording 71.69 per cent.
The mandate clearly altered the permutation and combination resulting in the ouster of Congress, with an undivided Shiv Sena and BJP comfortably coming to power, with chief minister Manohar Joshi and deputy chief minister Gopinath Munde. While Joshi belonged to Shiv Sena, Munde was the mass leader of BJP.
After the creation of Maharashtra on May 1, 1960 through the linguistic state reorganisation act, the first assembly elections took place in 1962. The Congress was then the unchallenged dominant political force under then veteran chief minister Yashwantrao Balwantrao Chavan.
From 1962 to 2024, fourteen assembly elections have taken place in Maharashtra. Read Full Report
The Maharashtra assembly elections on Wednesday saw significant improvements in polling station facilities, reducing wait times and enhancing the overall voting experience, especially for senior citizens and persons with disabilities. Compared to the Lok Sabha elections in May, where voters faced long queues and inadequate facilities, this time the process was notably smoother, with better management of queues and more efficient polling setups across Mumbai.
The Election Commission (EC) had instructed polling authorities to ensure assured minimum facilities (AMF) at all voting centres, including ramps, handrails, drinking water, waiting areas, and clear signage. In most centres across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, voters reported better arrangements, which contributed to a generally positive experience. However, some voters did note issues with the condition of ramps, the lack of facilities to deposit mobile phones, and in certain cases, inadequate access for disabled voters to reach the polling booths.
Voters across Mumbai’s western suburbs, central, and South Mumbai areas expressed satisfaction with the smoother process this time around. “The queues were much shorter compared to the May elections. I was in and out of the booth within five minutes,” said Jinita Shroff, a Dadar resident. During the May polls, many voters had to wait for over two hours under the harsh sun, with some complaining about the lack of shade and seating. Read Full Report
Mumbai seems to have fared better than the 2019 assembly polls on the voter turnout front with Mumbai city and its suburbs on Wednesday recording an estimated 49.07 and 51.92 per cent polling respectively till 5 pm.
Colaba assembly segment recorded the lowest turnout in the city with 41.64 per cent till 5pm, while Borivali recorded the highest at 60.50 per cent, followed by Bhandup west segment, where the turnout stood at 60.18 per cent.
Even though Mumbai’s turnout was low compared to the state’s average polling, the voter turnout here improved slightly this time from the 2019 polls, when the final voter turnout in Mumbai city and suburbs district stood at 48.22 and 51.28 per cent respectively.
During the recent Lok Sabha polls, Mumbai’s six LS constituencies had recorded 52.38 per cent. Read More
CONTRARY to expectations and the visible enthusiasm among voters, the three seats of Pimpri-Chinchwad registered a slight increase in voting percentage in the 2024 assembly polls compared to the 2019 assembly polls.
According to election officials, Bhosari which was racing ahead in polling through the day, registered around 61 per cent voting by the deadline of 6 pm. In 2019, Bhosari had registered just 59. 71 per cent voting. Chinchwad which was trailing Bhosari in terms of voting percentage finished with around 56 per cent voting compared to 53.55 per cent registered in 2019. The reserved seat of Pimpri, which witnessed a slow pace of voting compared to the other two seats, ended up with 51.29 per cent voting compared to around 50.21 per cent voting in the 2019 assembly elections. Read Full Report
Congress in-charge for Maharashtra, Ramesh Chennithala, expressed confidence in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming the government in Maharashtra. He stated, "The people in the state are against the current governments at both the state and central levels. Exit polls do not reflect the ground reality. People's sentiments are with us because we are addressing real issues, while the BJP has always relied on divisive, communal politics. I believe the people of Maharashtra have voted for the MVA, and we will form the government. The exit polls are not showing the truth." ANI
On the exit polls for the Maharashtra Assembly Election, NCP-SCP leader Clyde Crasto commented from Mumbai: "These are just exit polls. We have seen what happened in Haryana—exit polls often predict one thing, but the final results tell a different story. The ground reality is different. We are grassroots people and understand what is happening here. Based on what we've observed, it is an even fight, but we have an edge. People have voted, and now we must wait for November 23rd to see the results."
"The country wants to move forward with PM Modi and the BJP-led NDA. People (of Maharashtra and Jharkhand) have seen the work done by the Uddhav Thackeray government and Hemant Soren government. Those who used to say that PM Modi has lost, have received a reply from the people," says BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad on exit poll predictions for Maharashtra and Jharkhand. PTI
"BJP always gains an advantage whenever there is an increase in voter turnout. Even now, the data shows that the voting percentage has risen in the state, and I am confident that Mahayuti and BJP will benefit from this," says Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis on exit poll predictions. - PTI
Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson Anand Dubey commented on several exit polls predicting an edge for the BJP-led NDA in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. "Some exit polls are favoring the Maha Vikas Aghadi, while others are giving an edge to the Mahayuti. We don’t want to question the exit polls, but we’ve also seen exit polls predicting a decisive majority for Congress in Haryana, yet the BJP came to power there. You must have seen exit polls predicting a victory for Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, but the BJP came to power there as well. There were also exit polls projecting 300+ and 400+ seats, but the BJP stopped at 240. So, how much trust can be placed in exit polls? I leave it to the people's wisdom. But one thing is clear in Maharashtra: the Maha Vikas Aghadi is coming to power."
"The results will be in favour of Mahayuti because in the past 10 years, we have worked for all people. Efforts were made to mislead people during Lok Sabha elections, but now people have understood that no one can change the Constitution," said Union Minister Ramdas Athawale. PTI
P-MARQ Survey:
📌 Mahayuti: 137–157 seats
📌MVA: 126–146 seats
📌Others: 2–8 seats
People's Pulse Survey:
📌 Mahayuti: 175–195 seats
📌 MVA: 85–112 seats
📌Others: 7–12 seats
Matrize Survey
📌Mahayuti: 150–170 seats
📌MVA: 110–130 seats
📌Others
The Mahayuti alliance is projected to secure an edge in the elections held today with an estimated seat count ranging from 137 to 157, according to P-MARQ. Meanwhile, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition is expected to fall behind, with the forecast suggesting a total of 126 to 146 seats.
The ruling Mahayuti is set for a strong victory in Maharashtra, with projections showing 182 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 145. In contrast, the MVA is expected to secure 97 seats, as per the People's Pulse exit poll.
Both Mahayuti and MVA leaders express confidence in forming the next government. NCP leader Sharad Pawar predicts that the MVA will comfortably cross the halfway mark, securing 145 seats out of the 288. Conversely, Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis from the Mahayuti alliance believes that their coalition will achieve the same result. Despite the significant number of rebels and independents contesting in up to 35 constituencies, these leaders maintain optimism. The assembly polls, therefore, are expected to be a closely contested battle, with a narrow margin of victory likely determining the final outcome.
Inflation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) remain key issues, resonating strongly with both rural and urban voters in Maharashtra. Farmers, particularly in regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada, continue to express frustration over rising costs and the lack of price support for crops. The BJP’s focus on Hindutva and welfare schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojna has not been enough to counter voter concerns about economic challenges. The MVA, capitalizing on these issues, has framed the election as a choice between economic reform and continued hardship under the current government, making inflation and GST central to voter decision-making.
The Ladki Bahin Yojna, which offers a Rs 1,500 monthly allowance to women, has become a focal point in the Maharashtra Assembly polls. With over 2.22 crore women voters receiving this benefit, its impact on voter sentiment is being closely observed. While some beneficiaries appreciate the scheme, like Sangeeta Sayamkar from Borgaon, others feel it does not offset their economic struggles, especially in rural areas. Sayamkar, for instance, reported losses in her soybean production despite receiving the allowance. The scheme’s influence on the election outcome will hinge on how it resonates with voters facing economic hardships.
Muslim voters, who make up 11.56% of Maharashtra’s population, are expected to consolidate against the BJP-led Mahayuti, as seen in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In this election, the Congress has promised reservation for Muslims if it comes to power, while the BJP argues that its policies focus on the overall development of all communities, including Muslims. Muslim organizations have largely maintained their stance from previous elections, and their decisive vote in key constituencies will be crucial in determining the final electoral outcome, particularly in urban areas where their influence is substantial.
Farmers’ unrest remains a significant issue, especially in Marathwada and Vidarbha, where crop prices fall below the MSP, leading to widespread frustration. Despite promises of economic support in party manifestos, farmers continue to struggle with debt and low returns on key crops like soybean and cotton. Leaders like Vijay Jawandia argue that without adequate price support, farmers remain in a cycle of debt. This ongoing dissatisfaction has been a rallying cry for opposition parties, particularly in rural areas, and could influence the election results by galvanizing voters seeking better agricultural policies.
Women voters, comprising a significant portion of Maharashtra’s electorate, will play a crucial role. The Shinde government’s Ladki Bahin Yojna, which offers Rs 1,500 per month to women, has been a pivotal promise aimed at securing their support. While some beneficiaries have praised the scheme, others, like Sangeeta Sayamkar from Wardha, have voiced dissatisfaction due to economic hardships, such as losses in agriculture. The success or failure of such welfare schemes could have a substantial impact on the voting outcome, especially in rural constituencies where women form a major part of the voter base.
Dalits, who make up around 10.8% of Maharashtra’s population, are a significant voting bloc, especially in reserved constituencies. Their support is crucial for both the BJP-led Mahayuti and the MVA. The BJP has promoted schemes like Mudra loans to empower Dalit entrepreneurs, while the MVA emphasizes constitutional safeguards and social justice. Despite BJP’s efforts to address Dalit concerns, some feel that the party’s focus on caste and religion in politics undermines the unity of Dalits and their broader constitutional rights, making their vote a highly contested factor.
Maratha reservation has been a critical issue, especially in the Marathwada region, where it has spurred significant political debate. Activist Manoj Jarange Patil’s fluctuating stance on the issue has targeted the BJP’s handling of the reservation. The MVA, which has capitalised on anti-BJP sentiments regarding this issue, expects to secure gains in the region’s 46 seats. The matter also ties into broader concerns about economic inequality, with farmers and Maratha communities questioning the effectiveness of BJP-led policies in addressing their needs, particularly in drought-prone areas.
Hindutva has been a prominent theme, with the BJP leaning on it to galvanise its base. The party’s strategy involves fostering unity among various Hindu communities, although this has sparked controversy. Some voters feel the emphasis on Hindutva detracts from other key issues like development and economic stability. Despite these polarising strategies, reports suggest that Hindutva rhetoric has not significantly resonated with either rural or urban voters. While some see it as a tool for political consolidation, others feel it undermines national unity and the spirit of the Indian Constitution.
Key issues include the BJP’s Hindutva agenda, with emphasis on Maratha and OBC reservations, and farmer unrest due to low crop prices, particularly in soybean and cotton. The Shinde government’s Ladki Bahin Yojna, offering financial support to women, is also a key factor. The Congress and MVA have been vocal about safeguarding the Constitution and addressing communal divisions. The Marathwada region's anti-BJP sentiments, especially concerning Maratha reservation, and issues of economic empowerment for Dalits through government schemes like Mudra loans are central to the election discourse.
BJP: 102 candidates (68% of party’s total candidates)
Congress: 59 (58%)
Shiv Sena (UBT): 63 (66%)
NCP (SP): 51 (61%)
Shiv Sena: 52 (54%)
NCP: 32 (54%)
Exit polls are surveys conducted right after voters have cast their ballots. They gauge how citizens have voted and observe the voting patterns as well. These polls provide estimates of the likely outcome of elections but are not the official results.
In India, exit polls are eagerly awaited, often regarded with as much anticipation as the results themselves. They are typically released only after all phases of voting are complete, as mandated by the Election Commission of India (ECI), to ensure that no voter is influenced by pre-poll predictions.
Pollster Pradeep Gupta announced that his firm, Axis My India, will release independent exit poll results for the Jharkhand and Maharashtra assembly elections. Gupta, said in a post on social media platform X, that the firm has significantly increased its on-ground deployment in both states to ensure accuracy in its exit poll surveys. This step was taken after analysing the discrepancies in their predictions for the Lok Sabha and Haryana elections.
In Maharashtra, voters will witness a tussle between the ruling Mahayuti — consisting of the BJP, Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and the opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP). The exit polls will begin to air after 6 pm on November 20. While exit polls will offer initial insights into the likely winners, it’s important to note that these results are based on surveys conducted after voting ends, not the official outcome.
For both Maharashtra and Jharkhand, exit polls will be released shortly after polling ends at 6 pm. These early predictions will provide an important indication of the voting patterns in both states. However, it’s important to keep in mind that exit polls are based on estimates and are not official results.
The final results of Maharashtra’s 2024 elections are scheduled to be announced on November 24. Following a period of intense campaigning and speculation, the exit polls will give an early indication of the possible outcomes, but the official tally will only come after counting is completed. Voters are anxiously awaiting the results, as the outcome will determine the political direction of the state. The process will be closely monitored, with political analysts and media outlets providing continuous updates as the counting process unfolds, especially considering Maharashtra’s importance in national politics.
Several key issues have dominated the 2024 Maharashtra election. Economic challenges such as rising inflation and unemployment have been top concerns for voters, particularly in urban centers. The state’s agricultural sector has also been a major focal point, with farmers demanding better prices for their produce and improved irrigation systems. Additionally, the issue of regional autonomy and the ongoing dispute between factions of Shiv Sena has sparked intense debate. Infrastructure development, especially in Mumbai, and handling of the Covid-19 aftermath were also significant topics that shaped public opinion during the campaign.
The key players in Maharashtra’s 2024 election are the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, is aiming to retain its hold on the state. The Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray is working to reassert its influence. The NCP and Congress are fighting to reclaim lost ground after their fall from power. Their respective alliances have significantly shaped campaign strategies, with issues such as regional autonomy, farmer welfare, and employment being central to their platforms. -PTI
Nana Patole expressed optimism, stating that initial trends show strong voter support for Congress, with hopes that 75-80 party candidates will secure victories. "The initial trends show that people are voting for Congress candidates in large numbers. Congress has the support of people, and according to trends, we are hoping that 75-80 of our candidates will win," said Maharashtra Congress President Nana Patole.
Among major parties, BJP, Congress, Shiv Sena, and NCP have fielded candidates with pending cases. Crorepati candidates dominate, with BJP’s Parag Shah leading with assets worth ₹3,383 crore.
Key battles include Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis in Nagpur South West, CM Eknath Shinde in Kopri-Pachpakhadi, and Aaditya Thackeray in Worli against Milind Deora.
The BJP suffered setbacks in 2019, forming a short-lived government with Ajit Pawar. The splits in Shiv Sena and NCP and recent Lok Sabha losses have put pressure on the BJP in these polls.
The MVA led in 153 Assembly segments, surpassing the 145-seat majority mark. However, the alliance had a marginal edge in vote share, with 43.71% compared to the Mahayuti’s 43.55%.
Maharashtra’s politics is dominated by influential families in nearly every district, such as the Pawars, Thackerays, and Mundes. These families gained prominence through cooperatives, banks, and educational institutions, creating patronage networks that rival government support. Voters often prefer political heirs, believing they can continue accessing these networks. Party allegiance is secondary, with families frequently switching parties. While dynasties consolidate power, this trend mirrors other states, where regional and national parties alike feature family dominance. Critics argue this undermines democracy, with India potentially evolving into a system controlled by a few hundred political families. - Neerja Chowdhury
As the voting for the single-phase assembly polls in Maharashtra is underway, Congress leader Sachin Pilot on Wednesday exuded confidence in winning the elections and said that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will form government in the state.
"The election trends are nice. People are voting in large numbers. Voting will conclude peacefully. MVA will form a government," Pilot told ANI.
The 2019 polls resulted in a hung Assembly, with the BJP winning 105 seats (25.75% vote share), the Shiv Sena securing 56 seats (16.41%), the NCP 54 seats (16.71%), and the Congress 44 seats (15.87%).
Smaller parties and Independents accounted for the remaining 29 seats.
The contest is shaping up as a rematch of the Lok Sabha elections.
The ruling Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena Shinde faction-NCP Ajit faction) faces the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (Congress-Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena-NCP (SP) faction).
In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the MVA had outperformed the Mahayuti.
Maharashtra will see voting across all 288 Assembly seats in a single phase on Wednesday.
The state has 29 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 25 for Scheduled Tribes (ST).
Following losses, the BJP has enhanced coordination with the RSS to mobilise cadres and consolidate Hindu votes.
Campaigns emphasise Hindu unity, welfare, and countering caste census rhetoric, with leaders like PM Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath advocating unity to address divisive politics and farm distress concerns.
Voters in regions like Vidarbha, marked by glaring inequalities, express scepticism towards party politics.
Local issues and candidates dominate over ideological alignments, making outcomes harder to predict.
These sentiments could benefit alliances like Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or Mahayuti, depending on the way localised strategies resonate with the voters.
The 2024 Maharashtra elections reflect a fractured political landscape, stemming from splits within major parties like the Shiv Sena and the NCP.
Traditional alliances have dissolved, creating six main contenders instead of four.
This fragmentation has intensified voter disillusionment, focusing attention on individual candidates rather than party ideologies.
Despite securing 161 seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance failed to form a government due to disagreements over power-sharing.
The Shiv Sena then joined forces with the Congress and NCP, whose combined tally of 98 enabled the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.
In 2019, exit polls in Maharashtra overestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena (undivided) alliance's performance, predicting an average of 207 seats, whereas they secured 161.
The Congress-NCP combine's strength was underestimated, with polls forecasting 65 seats compared to the 98 they achieved.
News18-IPSOS was the least accurate, predicting 243 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena, while India Today-Axis My India came closest with a lower-bound estimate of 166 seats.
As of 3 PM, Maharashtra recorded a voter turnout of 45.53%, according to the Election Commission of India. The highest turnout was in Gadchiroli at 62.99%, while Thane saw the lowest at 38.94%. Mumbai City and Suburbs registered below-average turnouts of 39.34% and 40.89%, respectively. Kolhapur emerged as one of the top-performing districts with a turnout of 54.06%.
Challenges include the diversity of voters, over- or under-representation of certain groups, and complexities introduced by multi-party systems and changing political alliances. Experts say the count method and selective polling in swing constituencies can enhance accuracy. However, traditional methods are still crucial for estimating vote shares and analysing voting behavior.
Exit polls can vary in accuracy and often show erratic results. Accuracy depends on factors such as the representativeness of the sample, the methodology used, and the ability to address challenges like diverse voter profiles and changes in party alliances.
The Election Commission of India mandates that exit polls be released after polling concludes in all phases to avoid influencing voters who have yet to cast their votes.
Exit polls are estimates of how people voted in an election, based on interviews conducted with voters as they leave polling stations and other voter data analyses.
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