Jammu and Kashmir Exit Poll Results Live: People queueing up to cast their votes in the Assembly elections, at Anantnag district. (Express file photo by Shuaib Masoodi)J&K Assembly Election Exit Polls 2024 Highlights: With the exit poll numbers trickling in, pollsters predict that Jammu and Kashmir may witness a hung assembly. However, four pollsters — Dainik Bhaskar, India Today – C Voter, Peoples Pulse and Axis My India — are giving the edge to the Congress-National Conference, projecting at least 35 seats for the alliance. This is followed by the BJP, which is expected to win at least 20 seats, and the PDP with 4-7 seats. This election holds great significance as it is the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which bifurcated the former state into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Congress jointly fought the electoral battle, while the People’s Democratic Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party contested independently.
What was the overall voter turnout? The elections held in three phases recorded an overall voter turnout of 63.45%, settling just under the 2014 mark – 65.8%. The third phase held on October 1 recorded a voter turnout of 68.72% while the second phase had recorded a voter turnout of 57.31% – lower than the phase one turnout of 61.38 percent. The traditional boycott bastions – Sopore and Baramulla logged the highest turnout in Assembly elections in the last 30 years.
Here’s what the exit polls say:
| Pollster | BJP | Cong-NC | PDP | Oth |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 20 – 25 | 35 – 40 | 4 – 7 | 12 – 18 |
| India Today-C Voter | 27 – 32 | 40 – 48 | 6 – 12 | 6 – 11 |
| Peoples Pulse | 23 – 27 | 46 – 50 | 7 – 11 | 4 – 6 |
| Axis My India | 24 – 34 | 35 – 45 | 4 – 6 | 8 – 23 |
What exit polls predicted in 2014? In the last Assembly election held in 2014, exit polls had predicted a hung Assembly while the people’s verdict gave an edge to the PDP, ahead of the BJP, NC and Congress. The CVoter exit poll had predicted that no party would clear the 44-seat majority mark in the then 87-member House. The tally was as follows – the PDP on top with 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP at 27-33, the NC at 8-14, and the Congress at 4-10. When the election results were announced the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15, and the Congress 12.
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