Propelled by surging support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP did well in the parliamentary elections in Bihar last year. In fact, it did exceedingly well, sweeping certain parts in the state that it could otherwise have never hoped to win. One glance at the constituency-wise map in the state will reveal large patches of saffron (indicating BJP-led NDA) across the western and south-central parts. The map spoke volumes about the gains the BJP made in the elections, notching up almost 30 per cent vote share on its own and increasing its tally by 10 seats compared to the 2009 elections. Overall, the BJP and its allies grabbed 31 of the state's 40 seats leaving all other opposition parties in single digits. Watch Video But the map also revealed the BJP's prime weaknesses, in the state's eastern belt, in which it lost almost all the seats including districts like Katihar and Purnia where it had enjoyed massive success in the 2010 elections in the company of its now estranged partner the JD(U). While in some seats, the vote difference extended to a few lakhs, in others, the difference was in thousands. More than a year after that landslide election, the hunky-dory scenario has dissipated leaving the BJP no longer feeling safe under the protective wings of PM Modi. Moreover, much to the dissatisfaction of the saffron party, the RJD, JD(U), Congress have aligned, thus ruling out any chances of a drastic split of anti-BJP votes. The BJP may have confidence in its partners in Ram Vilas Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi, leaders who command substantial Dalit votes in the state, but intense bickering in seat-sharing can squander opportunities. In this new political climate, we take a look at some of the key constituencies and regions that the BJP must win in order to have any shot at government formation in Bihar. In the intense caste-inflicted parts of Bihar, it is difficult to arrive at conclusions, but these points have been made after general assessment of the results of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 Assembly election. Kishanganj The western-most district in the state, Kishanganj is one area where the BJP has to make gains in the forthcoming elections. In 2014, the Congress mopped up the seat defeating the BJP candidate by nearly 2 lakh votes. Even in 2010, the BJP-JD(U) alliance stood little chance, winning almost no seats in the region. The presence of sizeable number of Muslim votes is also something not going in BJP's favour. Kishanganj is one of 250 most economically backward districts in the country. Araria-Katihar Araria and Katihar are again two Lok Sabha constituencies that did not go the way of the BJP in 2014. While it was RJD which emerged victorious in Araria beating the BJP candidate by more than 1.5 lakh votes, Katihar was the lone seat which went to NCP's Tariq Anwar who has a sizeable influence here. But if one were to go by the 2010 trends, these were two districts which handed the BJP handsome gains on a platter. In Araria, the BJP won 4 out of the six seats and in Katihar, it won 5 out of 9 seats. It must be noted however that the BJP's gains had come in the company of the JD(U) and its popular leader Nitish Kumar. But since the split between the parties, the BJP's vote-share has gone for a toss. Nalanda belt This belt comprising of districts like Nalanda, Munger, Gaya and Nawada must be a priority for the BJP if it harbours any hope of winning the state. Nalanda, a backyard of sorts for CM Nitish Kumar, is a region in which the JD(U) has been consistently successful and it would not be easy to throw it off its perch. In 2010, the JD(U)-BJP combine had virtually swept this region, garnering most of its seats. Last year, even though the NDA had won constituencies like Nawada, Munger and Gaya, its victories were by slender margins. This is also a region where Amit Shah would do a lot of head-scratching to place its allies carefully.
