The Dalit vote, with Athawale on board

In the 2009 polls, the Shiv Shakti-Bhim Shakti slogan coined by late Bal Thackeray worked to the advantage of the Sena, which bagged nine out of 29 seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes. The Congress won the same number of seats while the BJP won seven and NCP bagged four. Although the 29 reserved SC seats account for just 10 per cent of the 288 Assembly seats, Dalit votes play a decisive role in the electoral outcome of at least 60 seats across Vidarbha, Marathwada and Mumbai.

The RPI’s move to distance itself from the Sena may have an impact in its stronghold in parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha.

Dalit writer-activist Arjun Dangle says, “In the real sense there is not a single constituency in the state where you will find a Dalit population less than 15,000 to 95,000. These do not include the reserved seats, which are Dalit-dominated with populations over 1.25 lakh. There is a marked shift in the Dalit voters of today. They are looking for a strong alternative in the political system. If change is the mantra it is unlikely they would consolidate in favour of Congress or NCP. Dalits will not completely desert Sena.”

But Athawale argues, “The decision to join BJP was taken after formal consultations within the organisation. And everybody believed that current mood is for development.
So the preference was BJP, which has the government at the Centre.” The BJP expects the Dalit support would help them in at least 30 to 35 seats across Vidarbha, Marathwada and Mumbai.

The Congress and NCP have made concerted efforts to hold on to their Dalit turf through local leaders such as former minister Nitin Raut (Nagpur) who was never projected across the state or even the Vidarbha region. The Congress has also got Yogendra Kawada, who has a following in the Nagpur region.

However, both parties have failed to get established leaders like Ambedkar’s grandson Prakash on board. Prakash Ambedkar, who heads the Bharip Bahujan Mahasang, has a strong following in Amravati, Akola and Bulshana in Vidarbha region. Although he has not been able to win a sizeable number of seats, his stand has been anti-Congress and anti-BJP.

Ambedkar says, “We are battling the mainstream parties. We don’t make a distinction among these four parties.”

In this elections, the BJP has played its cards well to retain Athawale’s support. To begin with, it went the extra mile to give him a Rajya Sabha seat.

This sent a positive message to the Dalits across the state.

In a candid admission, Athawale said, “After their split I was unsure whether I should remain with Sena or BJP. The overall consensus in the party was to be with the BJP.”