Adding to the existing delay in the monsoon onset over Kerala, a cyclone is all set to form in the Arabian Sea on Wednesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. Its intensity, location of formation in the Arabian Sea and subsequent movement are likely to affect the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala. The prevailing system rapidly intensified from a cyclonic circulation to a low pressure by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, it further strengthened into a depression and lay over the southeast Arabian Sea. It is currently located 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan. As per the cyclone track forecast, it is headed northwards to Pakistan and will not affect India’s west coast. According to the latest updates from the IMD, this system is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. Once intensified into a storm, the cyclone will be identified as Cyclone Biparjoy, a name given by Bangladesh. In 2021, Cyclone Yaas had formed at the time of the monsoon onset. This will be the second cyclone to form within three weeks in the North Indian Ocean. Cyclone Mocha, which formed in the Bay of Bengal, barrelled into Bangladesh and Myanmar causing massive destruction. Even though several favourable factors brought the monsoon to Kerala’s doorstep, the monsoon winds have not gained enough strength yet propelling its progress to mainland India, IMD officials said on Monday. “Since a week, the conditions for the monsoon progress have remained favourable. The satellite images have consistently shown cloud formation off the Kerala coast and the monsoon strengthening,” a senior IMD official said. While the normal date for the monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1, this year, the IMD had said that the onset was likely on June 4 with a standard deviation of four days. “As of now, the monsoon is still within the acceptable onset date, but there are several uncertainties involved. Development of a cyclone will not be good for the monsoon progress,” the official added. One of the possible reasons for the monsoon winds to remain weak, even while the first week of June comes to an end, is the inadequate land heating during the ongoing summer season. “There were fewer heatwaves last month as there were several rainfall spells influenced by the western disturbances. The required land heating favouring the monsoons was not recorded,” the weather expert said. Since 2005, the most delayed monsoon onset over Kerala was June 8, the IMD’s monsoon onset data revealed.
