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Journalism of Courage
Sri Lanka will vote to elect a new president on Saturday (September 21) in the country’s first election since the mass protests of 2022 that led to the ouster of the unpopular Rajapaksas from power. (Brothers Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa were prime minister and president respectively).
The protests were sparked by Sri Lanka’s worst ever economic crisis that saw inflation touch 70%, and a crippling scarcity of basic necessities such as food, cooking gas, and medicines. Things are better now but a full recovery is still a while away.
For most Sri Lankans, thus, the economy is the primary issue in the elections. India too, is watching the election closely; New Delhi has deep strategic stakes in Sri Lanka.
In total, 38 candidates, all men, are in fray to be the next president of Sri Lanka. The country’s 17 million eligible voters can vote for up to three candidates, and the person securing more than 50% of the total vote share is declared the winner.
In case no candidate passes this mark in the first round, there is a legal provision for a run-off election between the two frontrunners. Given how close this year’s race has been, a run-off — which would be the first ever since this system was introduced some four decades ago — is very much on the cards.
As things stand, one of the following three candidates is likely to become the next president.
The six-time former prime minister became president after Gotabaya’s 2022 ouster. Under his leadership, Sri Lanka’s teetering economy has shown signs of recovery — this was central to his pitch to voters.
“I have shown the people that when I take up a task I complete it. Now it’s up to you to decide what kind of path we should take from Sunday,” Wickremesinghe said in his final rally on Thursday, in reference to his debt-restructuring efforts and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout.
However, Wickremsinghe does not enjoy a solid base of his own, and he has been accused of protecting the Rajapaksa family by shielding them from prosecution — allegations he has denied. He is contesting the polls as an Independent.
The Marxist Dissanayake is leading the race, according to a latest opinion poll, Reuters reported. The member of parliament from the Colombo district has promised to reduce poverty and fight corruption.
“Hundreds of thousands of people have gathered with us because they hope for a better future. The first step of that journey will begin on 22 September,” he told a gathering in Galle on Thursday.
Dissanayake’s party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has never come close to power nationally. It has twice led Marxist insurrections, and played a pivotal role in the 2022 protests that propelled it to national relevance.
There are concerns about the JVP’s stance on Tamil separatism, and Dissanayake’s continuing opposition to any investigation into alleged war crimes perpetrated especially during the last phase of the Sri Lankan civil war (1983-2009). Some commentators like the political columnist Kusal Perera, have said that Dissanayake and JVP have “absolutely no democratic stance other than covering their Sinhala Buddhist racism by saying they stand for unity”, Al Jazeera reported.
The son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, Sajith is the leader of Sri Lanka’s main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). He finished runner-up to Gotabaya in the previous election in 2019.
He has pledged to reduce the cost of living for Sri Lankans and promote tourism and agriculture exports.
“We will build a country that will give prosperity to everyone and give the millions who are now struggling a decent life,” Premadasa said at a rally last week. Earlier this week, he told The Associated Press that if he were to be elected, the rich would pay more taxes and the lives of the poor would improve.
Premadasa is considered to be the other frontrunner (alongside Dissanayake) in the election, and some previous polls suggested he was most likely to win. However, in a country yearning for radical change, Premadasa’s political background may be a liability.
Namal is the other political blue blood in the fray. He is the son of former President and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, and scion of the powerful Rajapaksa clan that has long dominated Sri Lankan politics. Namal has repeatedly invoked the legacy of his father, who is still seen as a hero in some circles for finishing the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and ending the civil war.
At the moment, however, the Rajapaksas are viewed as the prime culprits for the economic mess that Sri Lanka finds itself in. Almost no one thinks Namal stands a chance in the election.
View from New Delhi
India’s vital concern in recent years has been to counter Beijing’s increasing influence in Sri Lanka.
Back in 2010, New Delhi had unofficially backed the anti-China retired army chief Sarath Fonseca against the incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa who had brought Sri Lanka closer to Beijing than ever before. Fonseca lost, but in 2015, New Delhi’s “preferred” candidate Maithripala Sirisena beat Rajapaksa to the presidency.
Premadasa’s SJB has been historically suspicious of the Chinese, and has often criticised Beijing’s “debt trap diplomacy”, which involves gaining political leverage by extending credit and infrastructure support to developing nations who often struggle to repay.
Premadasa is also the only candidate to support the full implementation of the 13th Amendment, something that India has long demanded. Passed in 1987 as a precondition for Indian intervention in the Civil War, the legislation mandates the devolution of power to provincial councils of Sri Lanka’s nine provinces. But no government has implemented its provisions fully for fear of being accused of allowing Tamil separatists to form their own state in the north.
All major Tamil parties are backing Premadasa.
On the other hand is Dissanayake, whose JVP traces its origins to the pro-China faction of the Sri Lanka Communist Party in the 1960s. The leftist leader has been highly critical of the Adani Group and its influence over multiple sectors of the Lankan economy, from ports and airports to energy. Dissanayake said last week that if elected, he would cancel Adani’s 450 MW wind power project in northern Sri Lanka, which he said was a “corrupt deal”, and against the interests of Sri Lanka.
Dissanayake has also promised to keep Indian fishermen away from Sri Lankan waters. Speaking in Jaffna on September 5, he said that his government would ensure that Indian fishermen stopped “brazenly poaching” in the country’s territorial waters.
However, Dissanayake made a high-profile visit to New Delhi in February, during which he met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. Following the meeting, Jaishankar posted on X that he had a “good discussion” on India’s bilateral relationship with Sri Lanka and the “mutual benefits from its further deepening”.
With the loss of a pro-India regime in Maldives, and more recently, in Bangladesh, India would want to ensure that it maintains healthy relations with whoever comes to power in Sri Lanka — even if he were not New Delhi’s “preferred” candidate.
