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Journalism of Courage
As the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, India is a crucial player in the global fight against climate change. Commensurate to its rising influence in international economic and geopolitical affairs, India has, in the last few years, become increasingly proactive at the annual climate change conference, also known as the Conference of Parties (to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), or simply COP.
It is not very well-known that India had hosted one of these conferences — COP8, way back in 2008. COPs used to be much simpler affairs at that time, attended only by climate negotiators and some environment ministers. They were very different from the extremely high-profile events that recent COPs have become. At least three of these, COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, COP21 in Paris in 2015 and COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, saw over 100 heads of states or governments flying in, making them the largest congregation of world leaders ever.
India’s emissions
Owing to its size and population, India has always been one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. Its emissions have grown almost four-fold between 1970 and now, data from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, an independent initiative, shows. Nearly 40% of India’s emissions come from the electricity production sector, while land transport contributes about 10%.
But in per capita terms, India’s emissions are low, less than half of the global average even now. Low levels of per capita emissions indicate lower access to energy, lower consumption and relatively lower standards of living. India cites its low per capita emissions to counter any international demand to cap its overall emissions, arguing that it needs to lift its people to similar standards of living as in the developed countries.
India at COPs historically
Right from the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, which gave rise to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India has been trying to ensure that the burden of climate action does not disproportionately fall on the developing countries.
One of the foundations of UNFCCC has been the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), which emphasises the point that while fighting climate change is everyone’s job, the rich and developed countries must bear the bulk of that responsibility, not just because they have caused most of the emissions but also because they have greater resources and capacity to act.
Indian negotiators played a lead role in the Kyoto Protocol at COP3 in 1997, which was based strongly on the principle CBDR-RC. A group of rich and developed countries were allotted specific emission cut targets, to be implemented in the 2008-2012 period, while the developing countries, including India and China, were free to take whatever “nationally appropriate” climate actions they deemed fit.
The Kyoto Protocol was inherently unstable because of the restrictions placed on the rich countries. The CBDR-RC principle was gradually eroded in every COP decision. In this period — between 2008 and 2015, when the Paris Agreement was finalised — India’s main effort at the COPs was to prevent this erosion as much as possible.
The Paris Agreement allows every country, including those developed, to decide and implement its climate actions. Everyone is supposed to have a climate action plan (called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), but no mandatory targets. Only a marginal distinction between the developed and developing countries has been retained, that too informally.
India at the recent COPs
In the past, India played its role largely in the background. This has changed in the recent years, and New Delhi has become more assertive and more forthcoming in offering its own narrative. Also, after the Paris Agreement, as one of the fastest growing economies, India’s conduct is tracked much more keenly.
At the 2021 Glasgow meeting, India blocked the final draft outcome at the last minute and got the “phase-out” of coal changed to “phase-down”. At the Sharm el-Shaikh meeting last year, India campaigned for a phase-down of all fossil fuels, not just coal, a proposal that is still too hot to handle for many countries. India has also been energetically talking about the need for lifestyle changes to bring down energy consumption and emissions.
India’s climate commitments
New Delhi has submitted two NDCs till now. The first NDC contained three targeted promises: India will reduce its emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP, by 33 to 35% from 2005 levels by 2030; it will ensure that at least 40% of its installed electricity capacity in 2030 comprises of non fossil-fuel sources; it will create at least 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of additional carbon sink through tree and forest cover.
Several other measures were listed, without specific targets.
In its updated NDC, announced last year, India raised the targets of the first two promises, having already achieved the previous targets eight years in advance. It raised the emission intensity reduction target to 4 %, and the non fossil fuel-based electricity target to 50%.
Indian Initiatives
India has also launched some global initiatives on climate change that have received the backing of many countries. These initiatives are not part of the formal COP discussions but have been an important input.
The International Solar Alliance (ISA), which seeks to promote the installation of solar energy across the world, was launched at the 2015 Paris meeting. The ISA has now evolved into a full-fledged UN-affiliated multilateral agency. A similar model is being followed for the Coalition of Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), which seeks to become the global knowledge centre for creation of more resilient infrastructure. The CDRI has been receiving a lot of interest from developing countries, especially the small island states at maximum risk from climate disasters.
India also got the International Energy Agency (IEA) to do an analysis of its proposals. The IEA analysis shows that simple lifestyle changes had the capability to reduce annual global carbon dioxide emissions by about 2 billion tonnes by 2030. It also said that nearly 60% of these savings could be directly mandated by the governments. India’s LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) Mission is now much more acceptable to other countries, and found its way in the final outcome of the G20 summit in New Delhi earlier this year.
India’s Groups
Since it is difficult to have all 190-plus countries present their individual points of view, negotiations at COPs happen mostly through formal and informal negotiating groups. Members of these groups finalise their common positions on different items, and these are presented at the formal negotiations.
India has been one of the original members of what is known as the G77 group, of the developing countries. The name is a misnomer because the group has over 130 members now, almost the entire developing world.
In more recent times, Brazil, South Africa, India and China formed the BASIC group, which has emerged as a powerful voice. India is also part of what is known as the Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) bloc, which has about 20 large developing countries.
India, like other countries, also becomes part of tactical groups that get together on specific issues from time to time.
India’s red lines
Negotiations are all about give and take, but every country has a few non-negotiatble red lines. For long, any attempt to dilute or do away with the CBDR-RC principle was a big red line for India. In practice, however, the principle of CBDR-RC has eroded considerably. India’s new red lines are now more individualistic.
Any proposal that asks India to reduce its emissions is a strict no for New Delhi. India’s climate actions are framed in terms of emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP, and not on emissions directly. It means that while India’s emissions would continue to grow, in the short and medium term, emissions as a proportion to the GDP would decline. As a corollary, India also rejects any suggestions to define a peak, or a peak-year, for its emissions.
India finds unacceptable demands of an immediate shut-down of coal-fired power plants. It insists that it will have to rely on coal for power production for at least a decade-and-a-half.
Emissions cuts in the agriculture sector is another no-go area. The agriculture sector, along with animal husbandry, accounts for close to 15% of India’s annual emissions. These are mainly methane, which is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide but remains in the atmosphere for a smaller period. Agreeing to emission cuts from agriculture could mean changes in cropping patterns and has huge implications for India’s food security.
