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Days after the unprecedented televised showdown in the White House between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump and Vice President J D Vance, the United States has paused all military aid to Ukraine.
American media quoted an unnamed US government official as saying that Trump was focused on peace, and the White House expected its partners to be committed to that goal as well.
“We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution,” the official said.
On Monday, Zelenskyy said in London that “an agreement to end the war is still very, very far away”. Trump attacked the statement as “the worst that could have been made”, and said “America will not put up with it for much longer!”
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had told CNN earlier that Zelenskyy was being a “troublemaker” rather than a “peacemaker”.
Since the Russian invasion began three years ago, the US, alongside Europe, has been the biggest source of military aid to Ukraine, including weapon systems, equipment, and financial support.
What could the suspension of US aid mean?
What is the current situation in terms of aid to Ukraine?
A pause to American aid was always on the cards after the February 28 verbal clash in the Oval Office.
Charles Kupchan, a former director with the US National Security Council under the Obama administration, told BBC News that the announcement pausing aid “is bold arm twisting coercive diplomacy” – the message from the Trump White House is that if the Ukrainians want US weapons, they have to agree to head to the negotiating table with Russia.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom had announced a four-point plan to work with Ukraine to end the war, but after their summit in London on Sunday, European leaders suggested that they could not guarantee peace in Ukraine without US help.
According to the Washington-based nonprofit US Global Leadership Coalition, over 2023 and 2024, European allies and partner countries significantly increased investments in assistance to Ukraine, and now account for more than 47% of the global aid.
US assistance accounts for close to 40% of the total aid, although the American share in military aid could be relatively higher.
The US support to Ukraine covers everything from anti-tank Javelin missiles to long-range strike missiles and air defence capabilities. Heavy weapons include tanks to munitions (artillery shells and air defence missiles). Supplies and provisions also include medical equipment, ambulances, and cold-weather gear.
Around a dozen High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) light multiple rocket launchers were supplied last year to boost Ukrainian firepower. And National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for air defence that were contracted in 2022 are slated to be delivered to the battlefield soon.
US service members have been training Ukrainian forces in Europe and the US. America has been providing a lot of intelligence support, which is vital for the Ukrainian military, especially for strategising defensive manoeuvres on the eastern flank, where Russia is pushing hard. Plus, Elon Musk’s Starlink project has been instrumental in keeping parts of Ukraine connected to the communications grid.
All this aid has been key to helping Ukrainian forces take on and, in many areas, repel the invading Russians. While Europe has committed to backing Ukraine, Kyiv needs a steady flow of weapons, munitions, and supplies to continue its resistance. That could be tough without American support.
At what stage is American aid to Ukraine now?
According to the policy research think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), all military aid funds announced by the Joe Biden administration “have been committed”, and the equipment is currently at various stages along the delivery pipeline.
| Status of military aid funds | billion USD |
| Committed | 28.6 |
| Obligated | 34.2 |
| Dispensed | 20.2 |
| Expired | 2.7 |
Source: Special Inspector General for Operation Atlantic Resolve.
Congress had appropriated $86 billion for Ukraine military aid in five supplemental appropriations and the Department of Defense base budget. The last aid package was passed in April 2024. The Trump administration is now unlikely to request more.
The US has been sending equipment to Ukraine through three primary routes: the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and Foreign Military Financing.
The PDA and the USAI account for almost 90% of the funding. The Department of Defense has committed all PDA and USAI funds, but not all funds have been dispensed yet. What is left could face varying degrees of restrictions now.
Aid takes some time to be delivered on the ground, and quite a lot of it is still in the pipeline. According to CSIS, some systems have shipped quickly: four HIMARS that were announced in early June 2022 arrived in Ukraine later that month. Others, such as Patriot missile systems, took longer – with a December 2022 commitment to draw down, the first units were delivered only in April 2023.
Analysis by CSIS indicates that drawdowns take about eight months on average from announcement to complete delivery. And drawdown equipment is still being shipped.
Has something like this happened earlier with Ukraine?
This is not the first time that President Trump has used a squeeze on US aid to exert pressure on President Zelenskyy.
Five years ago, during his first term in the White House, Trump had held up congressionally authorised assistance to Ukraine, in an attempt to force Zelenskyy to furnish details about an alleged corruption deal involving Joe Biden’s son Hunter. Zelenskyy had refused to toe the line then.
Can Ukraine hold out even without American aid?
When it comes to military aid for Ukraine, European assistance has been comparable to that from the US, at roughly $1.8 billion per month, according to calculations by Germany’s Kiel Institute. Aid from Europe was especially critical in late 2023 and early 2024, as Congress debated the next US aid package. That was the time when Europe also approved using frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s military needs.
The bad news, according to CSIS, is that the Europeans are already supplying as much as they possibly can – and if the US ceases aid, many European countries that are already up to capacity in terms of utilising their military production will likely scale back.
Adding to the bad news for Ukraine is the fact that Russia has ramped up domestic production of military supplies, and is securing weapons through foreign partners such as North Korea and Belarus.
Now that President Vladimir Putin senses that the war could be close to its end with the US tightening the screws on Ukraine, the Kremlin can be expected to step harder on the gas.
