The result of the much-heated election to the Pune Lok Sabha seat will be out on Tuesday with almost a straight fight between the BJP and Congress which fielded fresh faces this time. While the Bharatiya Janata Party is fighting to retain the seat which it won in the previous two Lok Sabha elections, the Congress put in efforts to regain its lost bastion. Here are a few factors that would decide the outcome of the Pune Lok Sabha seat. Rise in voter turnout The Pune Lok Sabha went for polling on May 13 and registered an increase of 69,854 votes than that in 2019. In the Pune Lok Sabha seats, 11,03,678 votes were cast this year as against 10,33,824 in the Lok Sabha election 2019. The voting percentage was 53.54 per cent in the Lok Sabha election 2024 compared to 49.87 per cent in the 2019 elections — despite complaints of missing names in electoral rolls. Thus, the swing of increased voting will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome. Assembly-wise voting There are six assembly segments under the Pune Lok Sabha constituency with four being represented by BJP leaders in the Maharashtra Assembly and one each by those of the NCP and Congress. Incidentally, the Shivajinagar Assembly segment represented by BJP legislators saw a decrease in voting and those segments where Congress has a good presence have shown an increase in voting. Modi impact Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to hold sway among the voters and it could have an impact on the Pune Lok Sabha seat. The two Lok Sabha elections won by Anil Shirole and the late Girish Bapat of the BJP, respectively in 2014 and 2019, were during the Modi wave. This election outcome will decide on the intensity of PM Modi’s hold in the constituency. Congress trying to encash anti-incumbency The BJP has held control over politics in Pune while holding power in the country and the state and was at the helm of affairs at all levels of decision-making in the city. There ought to be anti-incumbency against the BJP and its extent would reflect in the election outcome. Citizens have been complaining about civic issues in Pune and civil society members have been openly taking on authorities over environmental degradation in the name of infrastructure development in the city. The Congress and other Opposition parties have been aggressive in taking up the interest of the public at large. The strong network of Murlidhar Mohol BJP candidate Murlidhar Mohol is a fresh face taking a big plunge into national politics. Mohol was the mayor of the city for two and half years from 2019 to 2022 after being chairperson of the standing committee of Pune civic body for a year. He took advantage of the posts he held to establish his networking across the city and create an image among citizens with his active participation in civic body management during the pandemic. It helped him reach out to every part of the city and his use of social media established him as a leader. His popularity would help in getting him votes from across the city. Rise of Ravindra Dhangekar Congress candidate Ravindra Dhangekar has been the most popular political face in the city after his victory in a bypoll of the Kasba Assembly seat last year where he defeated the ruling BJP candidate in the party bastion. Dhangekar grabbed public attention and instantly garnered fame which also helped him get a party ticket to contest the Lok Sabha election 2024. The Congress candidate emerged as a leader for the needy and marginalised section of society by raising issues of the common man which might benefit him in the election. Factionalism in BJP There was no factionalism in the BJP in the city unit till the party declared its candidature for the Pune Lok Sabha seat. The BJP has always claimed to be a disciplined party with everyone abiding by party decisions. However, the Pune Lok Sabha election showed that the situation in the BJP is not as it claims as many of its leaders deliberately stayed away from the campaigning events of Mohol. Maharashtra party leaders had to take cognizance of the factionalism in the city unit and warned of action against those not actively campaigning for the party candidates. United Congress and alliance partners The Congress has been a broken house for a long time but this Lok Sabha election was a different picture altogether as local party leaders showed a united face. Party leaders kept aside their differences and were active during the campaign of party candidate Dhangekar. The Maharashtra Congress unit had roped in leaders from other districts to coordinate Dhangekar’s election campaign. The local units of alliance partners NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT), too, were equally active while campaigning for Dhangekar.
