What has kept Shinde and Fadnavis from carrying out cabinet expansion for almost a year?

After Shinde and Fadnavis took the oath of office as CM and Deputy CM, respectively, on June 30, 2022, the two of them ran the government by themselves for almost 41 days. In the first cabinet expansion, they inducted 18 MLAs—nine each from the BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde). With that, the total strength of the state cabinet, including the CM and Deputy CM, came up to 20, which was less than the maximum permissible strength of 43 ministers. There are 23 vacant berths in the council of ministers which have remained unfilled in the last year.

Avoiding revolts, keeping the house intact

Fadnavis has said more than a dozen times they want to expand the cabinet and that will be done at an appropriate time. “And it will be soon,” he has said.

With the number of aspirants outnumbering the quota, Shinde and Fadnavis took the decision to tread cautiously. Party leaders have said the purpose of putting the next cabinet expansion on hold was to avoid an in-house revolt that had the potential to destabilise the newly formed government. Keeping the aspirants’ hope alive was also a strategy Shinde and Fadnavis adopted to avoid cracks within their own parties.

A senior BJP functionary said, “The BJP is a cadre-based party which is governed by [Prime Minister Narendra Modi] Modi and [Amit] Shah. If Fadnavis had shortlisted the candidates and got approval from the centre everybody would have accepted it. Whether it was to one’s liking or not nobody would challenge or revolt”. Whereas, he explained, “In the Shinde faction, every individual who has pledged loyalty to him believes has the right to a cabinet berth. Those left out would be unhappy. It was then feared they would threaten to quit the party triggering political unrest.”

The Shinde faction has 40 MLAs who turned rebels and left the Uddhav Thackeray-led party to join the chief minister. Apart from these, there are Independents in the Shinde faction. However, Shinde cannot make all the MLAs ministers and a majority of them want nothing less than a ministerial berth. On several occasions, individual MLAs like Sanjay Shirsat and Bharat Gogawale have voiced their aspirations. “We have been promised a ministerial berth in the next cabinet expansion.”

At other times, angry MLAs have even expressed displeasure for being kept on wait.

An insider in the Shinde camp revealed, “For one year we were given to understand that we should wait until the Supreme Court verdict, as the court verdict was crucial for the continuation of government. Now, we are told that the SC has referred the decision regarding the disqualification of 16 MLAs of Shiv Sena (UBT), chief whip’s legality, and Shiv Sena party status to Speaker of Assembly Rahul Narwekar”.

That Supreme Court verdict had come on May 11.

On his part, Fadnavis, who is overburdened with half a dozen crucial portfolios including home, finance, water resources, and power sector, also had to ensure coalition stability. At the BJP state executive meet held in Pune last month, Fadnavis categorically told party workers, MLAs, and office bearers to work selflessly towards the organisation. “Don’t seek any post, position or power. Keep in mind sacrifice and selfless service. Devote your one year to the party.”

With that statement, Fadnavis aimed to put across a message to MLAs that they should not strive for cabinet berths.

Matter of numbers

Despite being the larger party, BJP with 105 MLAs settled for just nine ministerial posts. And, Shinde, who has the support of 50 MLAs, also got nine ministers in the first cabinet expansion.

In private, BJP leaders have been expressing the party’s right to a greater representation compared to Shiv Sena (Shinde) in the state cabinet. They argue the BJP should get two-thirds of the posts and the Shinde camp one-third keeping in mind an individual party’s strength.

Currently, nine BJP ministers are Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, Sudhir Mungantiwar, Chandrakant Patil, Vijaykumar Gavit, Girish Mahajan, Suresh Khade, Ravindra Chavan, Atul Save and Mangal Prabhat Lodha. From the Shinde Sena are Gulabrao Patil, Dada Bhuse, Sanjay Rathod, Sandipan Bhumre, Uday Samant, Tanaji Sawant, Abdul Sattar, Deepak Kesarkar, and Shambhuraj Desai.

There are no ministers of state (MoS) and no woman minister in the cabinet.

A case of too little too late

Cabinet minister and spokesperson Deepak Kesarkar said, “The cabinet expansion is high on the agenda”. According to a BJP office bearer, “Shinde and Fadnavis are keen on having a full-fledged cabinet. They plan to do it this month.”

To substantiate their claims, they pointed to the meeting Shinde and Fadnavis had with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi Sunday night.

Even if the state gets a full-fledged council of ministers in June-July, it will be a case of too little too late. An election year is looming large and the code of conduct will come into force once the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls date are announced, after which new policies and programmes cannot be taken up. Moreover, everyone including ministers’ focus will be to consolidate their electoral base in their respective districts and constituencies.

While the Lok Sabha polls are scheduled for April-May 2024, the Assembly elections are likely to be held in November.

When Shinde and Fadnavis took over the state’s reins last year they knew they had just 2.5 years left before these crucial polls. While Fadnavis was forced to accept the post of deputy CM against his wishes to ensure “good governance”, Shinde was entrusted with the task of finishing off Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.

After a year, they seem to have faltered to some extent on both accounts. The reason is the weak and incomplete council of ministers and the Opposition has been quick to launch an attack over the issue. State NCP chief Jayant Patil said, “The cabinet expansion was on hold to avoid unrest coming to the fore. It shows the helplessness of the coalition government and its leaders.”