In Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri Lok Sabha seat, a likely power tussle between BJP and Shinde Sena

Kiran Samant posted on X, “Rokega Kaun ( who can stop)”.

The coastal Konkan region, under which the Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri Lok Sabha seat comes, has always been the bastion of the Shiv Sena led by the Thackerays. A fierce contest is also likely to erupt between the Shinde Sena, which is keen on contesting from Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri, and the Shiv Sena (UBT). Currently, Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri is represented in the Lok Sabha by Vinayak Raut of Shiv Sena (UBT).

Even though the Shinde-led Shiv Sena has staked claim over the Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri Lok Sabha seat from the beginning, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is keen on making inroads in the region, is considering the candidature of Public Works Department Minister Ravindra Chavan.

Shinde Sena candidates Deepak Kesarkar (Sawantwadi) and Uday Samant (Ratnagiri) are the school education minister and industries minister, respectively, in Maharashtra Cabinets.

BJP’s campaign in Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri

With the party pledging to win 45-plus seats out of the 48 in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, BJP Maharashtra unit president Chandrashekhar Bawankule has embarked on an aggressive outreach campaign across the state.

In October 2022, Bawankule had held meetings and rallies as part of the outreach campaign. The local BJP unit had been putting up posters, saying ‘Saksham, shatpratishat (capable, 100 per cent), to show its strength.

The local BJP unit’s aggression was to essentially counter its rival Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray in the Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri district and to also convey the message to alliance partners about its right over the seat.

Bawankule said, “All decisions related to seat sharing and candidates will be made at the central leadership level. We are confident that under PM Narendra Modi’s leadership at the Centre and the parties coalition led by CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, we will achieve our political target of 45 plus”.

“The BJP is working hard in each and every constituency. Every candidate’s victory whether they belong to the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) or Ajit Pawar-led NCP is our responsibility. The three parties are working together,” he added.

‘Pulls and pressures on a handful of seats’

A senior BJP vice-president, requesting anonymity said the BJP is the largest party both in Lok Sabha and Assembly.

“If it feels it has a better candidate who will ensure victory, it will surely stake a claim. When you have a three-party alliance there is bound to be some pulls and pressures on a handful of seats. But it will get resolved over time,” the BJP leader said.

“Every party has drawn its list of seats and candidates. Ultimately, there will be some give and take. But the BJP is not going to compromise on winnability criteria,” the leader added.

A political strategist also said being a larger party, the BJP is going to have a larger share of 28 seats. “The 20 remaining seats will be divided between Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction),” said the strategist.

Rane home turf

Narayan Rane, the Union MSME minister who started his political career in the Shiv Sena, had a strong hold over the district. Following differences with Uddhav Thackeray, he left the Shiv Sena to join Congress in 2005. In 2017-18, Rane formed his party Maharashtra Swabhiman Paksha. In 2019, he formally joined the BJP and was made the Union MSME Minister in July 2021.

In 2019, undivided Shiv Sena candidate Vinayak Raut and Maharashtra Swabhiman Paksha candidate and the son of senior Rane, Nilesh Rane, contested the Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri Lok Sabha seat. Raut won with 4.58 lakh votes to defeat Nilesh Rane, who polled 2.79 lakh votes. Nilesh is now in the BJP.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the fight was between Nilesh Rane who had contested as the Congress candidate against Raut and lost. In 2009, Nilesh Rane had won the seat as the Congress candidate against former Union minister Suresh Prabhu of the Shiv Sena, handing a major blow to the Thackeray-led party.

A BJP insider said, “The party is unlikely to give Nilesh Rane a ticket in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. If the BJP contests the elections it may consider fielding Union minister Narayan Rane, who currently is Rajya Sabha MP”.

The Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri Lok Sabha comprises six Assembly seats — two seats are held by the Shiv Sena (UBT), two by the Shinde Sena, and one seat each by the BJP and NCP.

While the BJP holds Kankavli, Kuala is with the Shiv Sena (UBT), and the Shinde Sena has Sawantwadi. The other three Assembly seats in Ratnagiri district are Chiplum (NCP), Ratnagiri (Shinde Sena), and Rajapur (Shiv Sena UBT).