First civic polls since split: As two Senas eye BMC, victory margin in state polls show a neck-to-neck race

The ward-wise performance across the 67 wards (of the total 227 wards in Mumbai) covering these assembly constituencies also show a stiff contest. While Shinde Sena led in 35 wards, Sena UBT was ahead in 32 wards.

The numbers, however, reveal a very close contest with lead margins across majority of the wards remaining in the range of few 100s with some as low as 2, 4, 52 and 69 votes.

The lead margin in some of the key wards were — Kalina (ward 90): 5; Chandivali (ward 164):13; Mahim (ward 194):44; Dindoshi(ward 39): 2.

Political observers say that as the elections get more localised during the civic polls, these thin margins may play a key role as a swing of a few hundred votes may change the outcome. The results reveal some clear patterns.

As for Sena UBT, it not only retained its traditional base in South and Central Mumbai but also expanded into areas or wards from where it had not historically garnered votes such as Muslim-majority pockets in Byculla, Mahim and Kurla, and Dalit-influenced areas. Analysts say this reflects a shift in voter behaviour, influenced by Uddhav’s alliance with Congress and NCP, combined with promises of local development and a redefined ideological appeal.

On the other hand, Shinde Sena garnered votes from from the north-western suburbs — Chembur, Bhandup, Magathane, Andheri East — benefiting from the BJP’s organisational network and a strong base among North Indian, Gujarati, and Marwadi voters along with the existing Marathi and candidate’s voters. “Sena UBT’s performance marks a shift from past elections when the undivided Shiv Sena’s core support largely came from Marathi-speaking voters,” an observer said. In Kurla, Mahim, Worli and Byculla, for example, while BJP machinery consolidated Shinde’s Marathi voters, Sena UBT made inroads among minorities and Dalits, creating a near-even contest.

“Uddhav Thackeray has attempted to soften his party’s image post-split and present itself as inclusive, especially in mixed-population areas,” said a senior political observer. “In contrast, the Shinde-led Sena continues to rely on the BJP’s suburban base and its appeal among middle-class Marathi voters,” he said.

Why BMC matters

The BMC, Asia’s richest municipal body with a budget exceeding Rs 70,000 crore in n 2025-2026 , has been Shiv Sena’s traditional power base since 1997.

With the city now evenly divided between two Sena and even the BJP and smaller parties playing a key role, the civic polls will test which Sena party can truly claim late Sena founder Bal Thackeray’s legacy. For Uddhav, the civic polls represent a chance to regain identity and credibility in Mumbai, whereas for Shinde, victory would cement control over the party’s original machinery and strengthen his Mahayuti alliance. The BJP aims to expand its foothold across suburbs, making margins even tighter.

The Sena split

The two Sena parties emerged in 2022, after Eknath Shinde rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray and broke away with 40 MLAs, toppling the Uddhav-led MVA government, and became CM with BJP support.

Shinde, eventually, secured the official Shiv Sena name and the bow-and-arrow symbol following recognition by the Election Commission and the state Assembly Speaker. Uddhav’s party was renamed Sena UBT, with the Mashaal as its election symbol.

The split in Sena did hamper Sena UBT significantly in all ways and it was seen in the Assembly polls, where the Sena UBT came down to 20 down from 56. The BMC elections, in that sense, is a fight for survival for the party.

Experts say that for Uddhav, good performance in BMC elections is not just about power; it is about regaining public validation for his claim over the party and Bal Thackeray’s legacy.

For Shinde, controlling the BMC would consolidate his authority and validate his 2022 rebellion. Political observers believe that while the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls gave early hints of this balance, the BMC elections will be the real and final test for both Senas.

“The Assembly results make one thing clear — Mumbai’s Sena strong holds have been divided between the two Senas, and the fight for the BMC will be about which Sena inherits Bal Thackeray’s legacy in the city politics,” said a senior political analyst.

“This is no longer just a fight for seats; it’s a fight for identity and legitimacy within Mumbai,” said Sanjay Patil, a researcher at Mumbai University and has a research thesis on Shiv Sena politics during his PhD. “The Assembly results show how neither faction can take any ward for granted,” Patil added.

Role of MNS, smaller parties

With the undivided Sena’s turf so evenly divided, smaller parties could be decisive.

The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), with concentrated support in in Marathi areas like Dadar, Worli, Vikhroli, Bhandup and Girgaon, can swing multiple wards. Similarly, VBA and AIMIM, strong in Muslim and Dalit-majority areas for instance as in Byculla, Mahim, Mankhurd, Shivaji Nagar, Versova, Malad, and others can influence razor-thin results. “This is also why Uddhav has been approaching Raj Thackeray for a pre-poll alliance… In an evenly divided Mumbai, the MNS is decisive — not by the seats it wins, but by how it influences which Sena controls the ward.”observer said

The razor-thin margins in several wards, some under 100 votes, mean every booth-level strategy, turnout management and local alliance will count, making the upcoming BMC polls a test of both strategy and voter sentiment.