Mahayuti or MVA? Which alliance will Jarange-Patil’s entry affect in Maharashtra elections?

From a little-known village activist to a prominent leader with significant support among the Maratha community, Patil had always claimed he was not interested in politics. His primary focus has been to secure reservation for the Maratha community under the Other Backward Classes category, advocating the welfare of poor Marathas.

Leaders from both the Mahayuti and MVA are closely monitoring Patil’s plans. On both sides, leaders have held personal discussions to ensure he does not undermine their electoral prospects. In the Lok Sabha 2024 polls, Patil’s Maratha agitation significantly affected the BJP, which saw its seats drop from 23 to just nine. In Marathwada, the epicentre of his agitation, the party failed to win any of the eight seats.

In a clear departure from his stated position of avoiding politics, Patil addressed a gathering in his Antarwali Sarathi village in Jalna district on Sunday. “I am not interested in contesting elections,” He said. “We will draw up a strategy to ensure we have our say on many fronts. We will field candidates in those constituencies where permutations and combinations work in favour of candidates’ winnability. We will support SC/ST candidates. In some constituencies, we will lend support to candidates who have stood by our cause and ensure the defeat of all those who are against us.”

Patil’s quota agitation

An analysis of his agitation from August 2023 to October 2024 reveals that Patil has remained focused on one issue: Maratha reservation. However, his proposal on how this reservation should be implemented has evolved. Initially, during his first hunger strike in August 2023, he demanded Kunbi certificates and reservation for Marathas in the Marathwada region. Later, he expanded his demand to include Marathas across Maharashtra. As his movement gained momentum, he proposed the more complex request for reservation for Marathas within the OBC category, adding “sage soyre,” which means that Maratha blood relatives should also be eligible for Kunbi certificates to avail of OBC reservation.

Patil’s six hunger strikes from August 2023 to October 2024 have kept the Eknath Shinde-led government on edge, despite the government’s commitment to consider his demands positively.

As Patil has presented his electoral challenge, Shinde and Deputy Chief Ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar are adopting a wait-and-watch approach. Shinde said, “Mahayuti is committed to Maratha reservation. I have taken the pledge of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj to give Marathas reservation. In February 2024, we passed legislation giving ten per cent to Marathas in education and jobs under SEBC.” He added that the matter was currently in court.

Patil and Fadnavis

Patil’s sharp criticism of Fadnavis, also the home minister, over the past year has raised questions about whether he is following a hidden agenda from the MVA’s political leaders. If not, why is he singling out the senior BJP leader?

A senior BJP official said, “In the Lok Sabha polls, Maratha reservation was an issue that worked against us in Marathwada. However, people know it was the BJP-led government from 2014 to 2019 that first provided a 12 and 13 per cent quota for Marathas in jobs and education.” He added that targeting an individual leader often leads to public discontent.

With Patil rallying Marathas against the BJP, OBC consolidation is beginning to take shape across the state, with many OBC leaders in the right-wing asserting that the benefits will ultimately favour the BJP.

Mahayuti’s OBC strategy

The National Commission for Backward Classes’ recommendation of seven communities within the OBC list is viewed as a strategy to enhance the BJP-led Mahayuti’s reach to micro-segments within the OBCs. The OBCs, comprising 291 castes and subcastes, are dispersed but represent a significant portion of the population, accounting for up to 50 per cent.

NCP minister Chhagan Bhujbal said, “I have always said Manoj Jarange Patil should take to the battlefield by contesting the polls. If he is fielding candidates, it is good.”

It remains to be seen how much impact smaller outfits can make in the Assembly polls fought between two major fronts comprising three parties each—the Mahayuti (Shiv Sena, BJP and NCP) and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP)).

Patil’s support base is primarily among Marathas, who make up 33 per cent of the population. Every mainstream party is expected to field strong Maratha candidates in the elections.

Out of the 288 Assembly constituencies, there are 160 where the Maratha vote bank is a decisive factor. In the Vidarbha region, which has 62 seats, Marathas have historically availed of Kunbi certificates to access OBC reservation since the early 1990s. In this region, a cotton belt, Patil’s reservation issue is less significant, as the contest will primarily be between the Congress and the BJP.

A Maratha Kranti Morcha coordinator who requested anonymity said, “Jarange Patil’s impact will be restricted to the Marathwada region, which has 46 Assembly seats. To some extent, it will spill over to parts of north and western Maharashtra.” He added, “It looks like Jarange Patil will work systematically to ensure he gets at least a handful of candidates elected. He will thus scout for winning constituencies.”

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the vote shares were as follows: the BJP secured 105 seats (25.75 per cent), undivided Shiv Sena 54 (16.41 per cent), Congress 44 (15.87 per cent), and undivided NCP 54 (16.71 per cent). Together, these four mainstream parties accounted for 74.74 per cent of the vote share, leaving the smaller parties and independents with 29 seats and a combined vote share of 25.26 per cent.

The smaller parties included BVA with three seats (0.67 per cent), AIMIM with two (1.34 per cent), PJS with two (0.48 per cent), CPM with 1 (0.37 per cent), MNS with 1 (2.25%); PWP with 1 (0.97 per cent), SP with 2 (0.40 per cent), JSS with 1 (0.36 per cent), KSP with 1 (0.21 per cent), RSP with 1 (0.15 per cent), VBA with 0 (4.58 per cent) and independents with 13 (9.93 per cent).