Lok Sabha polls: Will issue impact-based weather forecasts well in advance, says IMD director

Heatwave days are also likely to increase this summer season. Instead of the usual 3-4 days of heatwave in a month, we are expecting a few more days. Our conclusions and extended range forecast, which provides weather forecasts for 15-20 days, have been derived on the basis of a lot of research, modelling and climatological studies.

In light of the increased heatwaves and upcoming elections during summer, how is the IMD planning to coordinate with the district level planners and voters?

During the elections, in case of any rise in temperatures or heatwave, the IMD will issue impact-based weather forecasts well in advance and inform the district collectors.

This forecast will provide all information such as how the weather will likely be, and what precautions should be taken by the officials. It will also have information on the impact on the human body during increased temperatures.

Accordingly, the district administration can make arrangements.

Voters and officials on duty must take adequate precautions as the overall forecast is that of above normal temperatures. They must avoid moving out between 11 am and 4 pm, and if they do, they should remain hydrated and stay under shade.

Besides, if there is any likelihood of thunderstorm or hailstorm, we send bulletins to the district collectors, disaster management cells, chief secretaries, etc., through emails or WhatsApp.

What are the causes of warmer summer this year? Is it owing to the El Nino impact?

Global warming is one of the reasons for this rise. We also study the rainfall activity during pre-monsoon summer months, on the basis of which we give our long range forecast. We also look at the climatological normals over the past 30 years, and how much deviation is taking place based on the model outputs. El Nino mostly has a direct impact on the monsoons and not so much on the temperatures.

In April 2023, after 14 persons died due to heatstroke while attending an event at an open ground in Kharghar, the IMD had set up an Automatic Weather Station (AWS). Is the IMD planning any new AWS this year to avoid such mishaps?

As per the IMD projected plans, we typically introduce new stations and observatories in remote places or areas that are inaccessible. Last year, we introduced one observatory in Kharghar, near Panvel, where we didn’t have a station.
As of now, we have automatic weather stations across Mumbai region, including Palghar, and we are taking into consideration all the data and observations from these stations.

Owing to the unseasonal rain in Marathwada and Vidarbha, there have been reports of crop damage. Amid the increased heatwaves, is the region also staring at the possibility of a drought?

Yes, owing to hailstorms and strong winds, a lot of crops get damaged along with tree falls. Drought mostly depends on the monsoon. Even if the temperatures are higher this summer, if the monsoon is sufficient then the likelihood of drought is reduced. If the monsoon is deficient, we will see a drought-like situation.

For the upcoming monsoon, we will declare the long range forecast in the next week .