Changed caste dynamics with non-Muslim Maratha candidate: Akola in a triangular fight

One: Congress’ decision to field Dr Abhay Patil, a non-Muslim Maratha candidate, unlike in 2014 and 2019 elections, has considerably disrupted the well-established voting pattern. Maratha candidates from Congress and the BJP joined by Prakash Ambedkar has turned Akola’s parliamentary election into a triangular fight.

Two: A decision to field Dhotre, son of sitting BJP MP Sanjay Dhotre has led to infighting within the BJP. A section within the BJP had opposed his candidature stating his electoral inexperience and nepotism.

Three: The BJP is facing flak over neglect towards agriculture and farmers that has been raised in the constituency by Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, forcing the BJP candidate to keep on counting the achievements of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Caste equations

The BJP first won the Akola Lok Sabha seat in 1989. Since then, except for 1998 and 1999 — when Prakash Ambedkar won the election — the party never lost it. A strong network of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a strong presence of Dalit and Muslim voters which leads to consolidation of Hindu votes and Congress’ neglect towards organisational strengthening helped BJP score victories without fail since 2004. Despite being the underdeveloped region, a careful consolidation of Maratha-Kunbi force from the BJP has ensured that the seat remains with the party.

In 2014 and 2019, Congress fielded Hidayat Patel from Akola. Riding high on Modi wave and Muslim and Dalit votes getting split between Congress and Ambedkar, BJP’s Sanjay Dhotre scored comfortable victories both the times. In 2019, he polled almost 50 per cent votes, more than the compiled votes of Congress and the VBA.

“This is the first time in the last several elections that a strong, well-known Maratha candidate from Congress is making a difference for sure,” said Kishore Bondre, former sarpanch of Shivpur from Akot assembly segment.

Out of around 18.50 lakh voters, Maratha-Kunbi constitute around six lakh while Muslim and Dalit votes are around 3 and 3.50 lakh respectively. With Patil’s candidature, Congress hopes to dent the Maratha-Kunbi votebank of the BJP and consolidate Dalit and Muslim votes to score a victory.

But according to Ambedkar, the Muslim votes will switch to his side. “Why would they vote for Congress? MVA is a compromised front. Muslims will come to us and we will go above 5 lakh,” he said. Interestingly, Ambedkar has been winning only 2.5 to 3 lakh votes in successive elections.

According to Shagur Bhai in Akola, the Muslim votes will consolidate behind one particular party only. “Anyone with a winning chance will get the Muslim votes and no division is possible,” he said, without naming a party.

Fight from within

Both the BJP and the Congress are troubled by infighting in Akola. Problem of plenty is BJP’s problem while challenge to the almost defunct organisational structure of the Congress in the form of Patil’s candidature is a problem of the Opposition.

“I was elected after majority of local leaders suggested my name. It is obvious that some may not have suggested my name. But that does not mean there is infighting,” said Dhotre, when asked whether his candidature was forced by BJP MLA and his cousin Randhir Savarkar while it was opposed by the group led by former minister Ranjit Patil.

A virtually defunct organisational structure of the Congress has put limitations on party’s campaign and made it dependent on the Thackeray-led Shiv Sena. Congress candidate’s RSS and VHP connection from the past is being raised none other than party leaders themselves in private and Ambedkar’s workers openly.

“I am not associated with that ideology for more than 15 years now. I am working towards the Congress ideology and under the leadership of my party leaders. I don’t want to comment on any distraction,” said Patil.

Farmers’ woes

At a campaign rally in Kutasa village on Akola-Akot road, Thackeray-led Shiv Sena leaders narrated how it was Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray who brought water in Akola’s village and how the ruling BJP dispension was not even able to construct a single Akola-Akot road for eight years.

Balapur MLA Nitin Deshmukh of the Sena is spearheading the party campaign in support of Congress and highlighting how farmers in this regime aren’t getting rate for soyabean and cotton, the main crops in this region. Patil apart from Congress’ votebank is also banking on Sena’s 1.25 to 1.5 lakh votes in the region. Deshmukh recently launched a Farmer Sangharsh Yatra, highlighting the problems in region.

The BJP is forced to reply. Dhotre narrates how Narendra Modi government has extended schemes and benefits to farmers. “From farmers to women, this government has schemes for all sections of the society. We are confident that the people of this constituency would know the importance of a strong leadership like that of Narendra Modi,” Dhotre said.

Apart from the BJP, the Network of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been working for Dhotre in the hinterlands. “We are not telling anyone whom to vote. But we are telling all to vote for a strong leadership. Ultimately, everyone will realise it is important to vote for a stable government and everything will be normalised,” said a senior RSS functionary from Akola.