Are Shiv Sena and BJP driving NCP to walls?
Having realized alliance with NCP proved futile, BJP has reverted to its true and trusted vote bank RSS and its frontal organisations for Assembly polls. The BJP under Devendra Fadnavis leadership is going extra mile to overcome challenges with the help of RSS.
7 min read
According to political observers the Shiv Sena's growing criticism against NCP could be a ploy to force them out of alliance. (File photo)The Shiv Sena and BJP’s increasing unease with their third alliance partner, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), has sparked political upheaval within the Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra. This indicates that all is not well within the three-party ruling coalition as the state prepares for Assembly polls later this year.
The developments over the last month clearly show that the NCP, which is slowly being pushed to the walls by Shiv Sena and the BJP, is charting its independent path. At least, this is evident from its act. The big question is whether it will stay with them amid the widening of differences or exit the alliance close to polls.
Multiple pieces of evidence indicate this. Recently, the NCP, led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, unilaterally decided to protest against the collapse of the Shivaji statue in Rajkot in the Malvan taluka in Sindhudurg district. The ruling constituent’s street protest against its government left both Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy Devendra Fadnavis embarrassed.
Sources said that ideally, Shinde, Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar should have come forward, taken collective responsibility, and apologised to the people of Maharashtra. However, instead of doing so, the Ajit Pawar faction surprised everyone by staging its protest on the streets following the statue’s collapse.
The justification from the NCP MP and its state president Sunil Tatkare further angered many. Tatkare said, “In a democracy, everybody has the right to agitate. Shivaji statue collapse has hurt public sentiments. We seek strong action against culprits.”
If the NCP agitation had been an isolated incident, it could have been dismissed as a spontaneous reaction to a shocking event in Maharashtra. However, there are signs that the NCP, which has ideologies and politics different from those of its saffron partners, is shaping its own path.
A BJP leader said, “What explains Ajit Pawar and his party’s decision to distance themselves from Union home minister Amit Shah’s controversial remark against NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar at the BJP conclave held in Pune last month?
Shah had called Pawar Sr. “brashtachar ke sardar” (master of corruption), a statement that Ajit Pawar and his party strongly disapproved of.
On Saturday, CM Shinde called Shiv Sena cabinet minister Tanaji Sawant to seek an explanation for his controversial remark against Ajit Pawar. A couple of days ago, Sawant said, “If I sit in the cabinet with NCP, I vomit after coming out. I can’t stand it.” The minister explained that he has never got along with NCP throughout his life.
The unprovoked statement from a Shiv Sena cabinet minister has taken everybody by surprise. While the NCP has been demanding Sawant’s removal from the state cabinet, Shiv Sena has not taken any action against its minister, and it has not even publicly admonished it.
Seat division in mind of Shiv Sena and BJP
According to political observers, the Shiv Sena’s growing criticism of the NCP could be a ploy to force it out of the alliance. A Mahayuti leader said, “It is not difficult to explain why each party is behaving like this. When it comes to running a government, the coalition works despite differences, but when it comes to electoral politics every party will strive for more seats.”
There are 288 seats to be contested in the Assembly, and seat division poses a challenge. Sources said that when you have to accommodate a third partner, it becomes a crowd, especially when the third partner in this case is the NCP, whose performance in Lok Sabha was poor. The source said it contested four seats, won only one, and even lost the home turf Baramati.
On the other hand, Mahayuti fighting the Assembly polls under Shinde’s leadership has given Shiv Sena reasons to believe that it can assert itself within Mahayuti. Also, within the alliance partners, compared to both the BJP and NCP, Sena’s strike rate in Lok Sabha polls was much better, as it won seven out of 15 seats it contested. The BJP contested 28 seats and won nine.
Having realised that an alliance with the NCP proved futile, the BJP has reverted to its true and trusted vote bank, RSS, and its frontal organisations for Assembly polls. Under Fadnavis’s leadership, the BJP is going the extra mile to overcome challenges with the help of the RSS.
Within a year, it has become clear that NCP cannot be relied upon to boost the overall count. BJP leaders face a difficult situation after forming an alliance with NCP, and the party’s members have openly expressed their opinions.
A senior BJP functionary said, “The alliance between the BJP and NCP has helped neither. It has neither helped them transfer each other’s votes nor win seats.”
Secondly, he explained, “The stated objective to finish Sharad Pawar’s leadership, which was one of the agenda, also remained unaccomplished.”
On the contrary, the division within the NCP benefitted Pawar Sr by gaining sympathy and making him stronger. This has put both the BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) on the defensive. Officially, BJP leaders maintain that Mahayuti will remain intact. State BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP are alliance partners in government. We will go to polls together as Mahayuti.”
What remains unexplained is how it will manage the differences at party levels. The attempt to appoint a coordinator to oversee the alliance’s smooth functioning across 288 constituencies has failed.
Senior BJP leader Harshvardhan Patil on Saturday said, “If the NCP insists on fielding its candidate from the Indapur seat, I will have to look for an alternative.”
Former minister Patil, who is keen on contesting the Indapur seat in the Pune district, is hobnobbing with Sharad Pawar. What has upset Patil is Ajit Pawar’s decision to unilaterally declare sitting MLA Dattatrey Bha the candidate for the Indapur seat.
Patil said, “When you are in alliance, it should be a collective decision. Is Ajit Pawar NCP an exception? I want to take up these matters, but BJP leaders are busy.”
Insiders in the BJP admitted that a power struggle within the alliance within limited numbers is acceptable, but if it grows, it will be a challenge. The murmur within the BJP against Ajit Pawar is continuing and gaining momentum. Earlier, right-wing weekly Vivek questioned the BJP’s wisdom to ally with the NCP.
A section within Mahayuti revealed, “In 2014, undivided Shiv Sena and the BJP, which had been allies for two decades, parted because there was a dispute for just three seats. The BJP agreed to give Shiv Sena 147 seats, while Uddhav Thackeray wanted 150 seats.” They broke their alliance and contested separately.
With three parties involved, seat division will be challenging for the BJP. The BJP currently has 105 sitting MLAs, and during its core committee meeting, members demanded 160 seats. With 40 MLAs, the Shiv Sena seeks at least 85 to 90 seats. Ajit Pawar, with 41 MLAs, also aims for 60 to 65 seats. The seat-sharing negotiations within the alliance are expected to be tough.
You May Like
