Maharashtra polls: Amit Shah to hold pre-election meeting on Oct 1 as seat-sharing talks intensify

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said that the seat-sharing talks between Shiv Sena, BJP and NCP of the Mahayuti “is progressing well”. “Almost 80 per cent of the seats have been discussed and decided… just 20 per cent remains,” said Fadnavis.

A senior BJP functionary said, “In principle, we have decided that each party will retain their sitting constituencies. The remaining seats will be driven on merit with the criteria being winnability factor.”

At present, the BJP has 105 MLAs, Shiv Sena 40 MLAs and NCP 41 MLAs. Together they make up for 186 seats. So, essentially the decision has been taken on 186 out of 288 seats. In the remaining 102 seats, discussions are under way.

In June 2022 when Eknath Shinde took the reins of Maharashtra government, he claimed the support of 40 Shiv Sena MLAs and 10 independents. Cut to September 2024, majority of these 10 MLAs are nolonger supporting Shinde Sena.

Instead, they are exploring options, including contesting as third front.

A case in point the Prahar Janashakti Party led by Bacchu Kadu who announced to contest separately under the banner of Maha Shakti. The other partners in this third front includes Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana led by Raju Shetti and former BJP MP Sambhaji Chhatrapati.

According to BJP strategists, Shinde, Fadnavis and NCP chief Ajit Pawar already held two marathon meetings last week “but talks are still inconclusive”.

Senior NCP minister Chhagan Bhujbal said, “On merit, we deserve at least 85 to 90 seats. In the Lok Sabha, we settled for less on assurance that it will be adequately compensated in the Assembly polls.”

Another NCP leader who is part of discussions said on the condition of anonymity, “Till final decision is arrived, it would be inappropriate to make any comment. We don’t want things to go wrong.”

With the Maha Vikas Aghadi, comprising Shiv Sena UBT, NCP (SP) and the Congress, determined to contest together as a united block, BJP reckons any misadventure would be detrimental for the party.

Although there is growing pressure from the party karyakartas not to buckle under pressure from Shinde and Ajit Pawar, BJP top leadership has decided to adopt a pragmatic approach. The party is working to ensure it gets atleadt 155 to 160 seats to contest as it knows settling for lower numbers would result in greater unrest within the organisation.

Supporters of senior party leader Harshvardhan Patil, who is keen to contest from Indapur, said that he is exploring to contest as independent or join NCP ( SP) led by Sharad Pawar. At Indapur constituency, sitting MLA Dattatrey Bharne is from Ajit Pawar’s party. Ajit Pawar is unwilling to relent on seats where he has sitting MLAs.

For the BJP, the challenge is not Ajit Pawar alone. The Shiv Sena is asserting itself in Mumbai with 36 seats and Thane with 24 seats, which together make up for 60 constituencies. The Konkan region, including Mumbai and Thane, make up for 75 seats, where Shinde wants an upper hand.

A Shiv Sena cabinet minister, requesting anonymity, said, “Konkan region is our identity and strength. The Lok Sabha battle was between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT). In Assembly polls, it will be replayed.”

Another argument by Sena minister is, that if the BJP claims upper hand in Vidarbha because of its strong electoral base, “why should they not support us in Konkan?”

For 62 seats in Vidarbha region, the BJP has already set the target of mission 45 plus. In 2014, the BJP won 44 seats, which reduced to 29 in the 2019 Assembly polls.

With Union minister Nitin Gadkari, Fadnavis, Bawankule and cabinet minister Sudhir Mungantiwar, the BJP is hoping to retain maximum seats in the cotton belt of Vidarbha.

The BJP also finds itself competing with the Shiv Sena in Marathwada, which has 46 seats and with NCP in Western Maharashtra that has 70 seats. In North Maharashtra, BJP has staked higher claim as it is party’s bastion.