Delhi: AAP hopes for a turnaround in high-stakes MCD polls

Despite the hyper-local nature of the elections — where the issues may range from how the candidate handled the problem of stray dogs to whether she turned up for a wedding or funeral in her constituency – the stakes are high for the BJP, AAP and Congress.

The BJP has been ruling all the three corporations since 2012 while this will be the second civic body election for the AAP. The BJP had swept the 2017 elections, winning 181 out of 270 wards and an absolute majority in each of the corporations.

The AAP came a distant second with 48 seats while the Congress, which won 30 seats, made significant gains compared to the 2015 Assembly polls, when it drew a blank.

For the AAP that has been in a constant state of confrontation with the BJP-led MCDs – over everything from payment of salaries to staff to allegations of corruption — this is a crucial election in more ways than one. The MCDs, which are in charge of sanitation, primary education, house taxes and toll, run schools, hospitals and dispensaries.

The AAP’s hopes for a turnaround in the MCDs is tied closely to the Congress’s fortunes. Since 2013, the Congress’s base in Delhi has been eroding continuously, coming down to 4% in the last 2020 Assembly election. The AAP strategy is to ensure that the vote from slum colonies and unauthorised colonies, once the Congress’s mainstay and which had moved to the AAP, remains with it.

So far, 17 sitting MCD councillors, of whom nine are from the Congress, have joined AAP, further weakening the Grand Old Party.

AAP MCD in-charge Durgesh Pathak said, “We are straightaway going to the people of Delhi and asking them if they think Delhi is clean. We will also focus on landfill sites, whether the BJP has failed to manage its resources, and if it is excessive corruption in the system that has led to frequent strikes by corporation workers. If they are not able to pay their workers, what can they do for the city?”

More than 20 strikes have been held in the past five years by different sections of corporation workers, including doctors, nurses, teachers and sanitation workers. The BJP has blamed it all on the AAP, saying it keeps the corporations starved of funds and does not honour the arrangements of finance commission.

AAP leaders, in turn, insist that the government has given its share to the MCDs and blame the non-payment of salaries on corruption in the BJP-led corporations.

Delhi BJP leaders, however, recently communicated to the Centre that they have been facing tremendous anti-incumbency due to the civic bodies’ financial constraints, and that the Centre should think of ways to fund the corporations directly.

For the BJP, which got around 36% votes in the 2017 MCD polls, the fight will be to retain those votes. In the last election, the BJP had three distinct factors going in its favour. One, it was the first local election since the BJP came to power at the Centre and the party changed all its candidates, giving an impression that this was a new BJP under Modi and Shah. Also, with Yogi Adityanath, from the Purvanchal region, being made CM in UP, the party could create a momentum among Delhi’s sizable Purvanchali population.

Two, the BJP’s main rival, AAP, was not in the best of form. The drubbing the AAP got in the 2017 Punjab Assembly polls had dealt a blow to the morale of its workers, many of whom were in Delhi after an exhausting campaign in Punjab.

The third – and the most important factor – was that Congress managed to get over 20 per cent votes, thus splitting the anti-BJP votes and denying the AAP a win in several seats.

This time, though, these factors seem outdated. “Though we got new faces (in 2017), many of them did not live up to the party expectations,” said a senior BJP leader.

BJP spokesperson Praveen Shankar Kapoor, however, said it can’t be assumed that the AAP will benefit from a shrinking Congress. “A good chunk (of Congress votes) has come to the BJP, too, especially those from the middle class. Our Lok Sabha results show that we got votes from every section. But a good chunk of the Congress’s Muslim votes have gone to AAP.”

The Congress, which had a vote share of 21%, only marginally behind the AAP’s 25%, will hope to better that performance, at least in some seats.

Congress leaders believe the AAP’s recent efforts to position itself as right-of-centre party has alienated a section of Muslims, the result of which was seen in the Chauhan Banger bypoll which the Congress won. Talking points in the bypoll were issues such as AAP’s silence on the Northeast Delhi riots and the government’s Covid bulletin marking out cases traced to the Tablighi Jamaat congregation.

AAP leaders, however, believe that these issues may surface in around 20 seats where the minority population can directly influence the election results, but insist they have strong candidates in at least 10 of these seats.

A senior AAP leader, however, cautions against taking the Congress lightly.

“This is the mistake that we made in 2017. As elections got closer, we saw in our internal polls that support for the Congress was increasing. By then it was too late to do anything. The Congress is worse off than in 2017, but municipal elections can be unpredictable. Our biggest competition is BJP for sure, but completely ignoring the Congress is not a good idea,” the leader said.

(With inputs from Mallica Joshi)