The McMahon Line has suddenly become the bone of contention between India and China. The Communist Party of China was established in 1927 and,to the best of my knowledge,they never questioned the border. China is creating disputes with regard to Arunachal Pradesh,Sikkim and parts of Ladakh so that it may serve as a bargaining factor whenever the boundary dispute is discussed and also as an excuse to attack India. Recent developments like protesting Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs visit to Arunachal Pradesh and showing Kashmir as an independent country clearly indicate that China wants to dis-member India. China sees us as a stumbling block in its way of expansion of its influence and economic interests in Asia and Africa. I consider the Chinese threat as real and serious yet the Indian political leadership is playing it down for some credible reasons best known to them. To evaluate the present situation,I would like to rewind and take you back to the Chinese invasion of India in October 1962. Back then too,our neighbours claimed some Indian territory as theirs and intruded into these areas. On the pretext of repossessing its territory,China invaded India and occupied large tracts of Indian land in Arunachal and Ladakh. Notwithstanding their success in 1962,the Chinese withdrew from the areas occupied by them. Nothing stopped them from permanently annexing these areas as they had done so with Tibet. Therefore,occupying disputed territory did not appear to be the political aim of China in 1962. Perhaps,it was the sanctuary provided to the Dalai Lama and the formation of the Tibetan government in exile in India that China perceived as a threat to the stability and continued occupation of Tibet that prompted them to attack India. Their aim was to drive home the message that China is capable of protecting its interests through military force,should India attempt to destabilise Tibet through the Dalai Lama. Recent unrest in Tibet is viewed by the Chinese as having been instigated by the Dalai Lama. This perception will continue till China succeeds to establish a Dalai Lama at Lhasa and for the same reason,threat from China is real and should not be ignored by our policy makers. China has the worlds largest military force known as the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). At present,Chinas road and airfield network is better developed than India,thus giving them a better logistic capability. Their captive labor force will easily be able to develop roads into Indian territories captured by them. However,they have a major disadvantage in the air. Airfields in Tibet are located at high altitude areas which would directly affect their aircrafts endurance and armament charring capabilities. On the other hand,our aircrafts being located in at lower altitudes will have a distinct advantage over the Chinese. At present,we have a huge deficiency of fighter aircrafts that needs to be made up on priority basis. China has a credible nuclear capability both in terms of warheads and delivery systems which is far superior to our capabilities. Its nuclear arsenal is estimated at 1,000 to 4,000 warheads. The control of Chinese nuclear capability rests with the Second Artillery Corps (SAC) which comprises 15 to 20 missile brigades grouped into six ballistic missile divisions which are independently deployed in various military districts. However,this need not be a major worry for India as any conflict with China is likely to be a conventional war and limited in scope. Gathering reliable intelligence is our sore point. We may have spy satellites in space but these can be easily jammed and even shot down. China has demonstrated their electronic warfare capability by jamming American and Japanese satellites 16 times. They have also successfully tested an anti-satellite missile. With this capability,China will easily be able to jam our ground base and air-based surveillance systems at critical moments. Our intelligence gathering agencies,therefore,need to develop suitable anti-jamming capabilities and be functional even in an adverse environment.
