Rupala won as Kshatriya stir polarised voters in favour of BJP: Rajkot Congress president

Reflecting on the loss, Atul Rajani, president of Congress’s Rajkot city unit, says that the Kshatriya agitation – which targeted Rupala in particular and the BJP in general – played to the ruling  party’s advantage. “Kshatriya agitation polarised the Patidar community in favour of the BJP. It also polarised other communities in favour of the BJP due to historic reasons and caste hierarchy,” says Rajani

He further adds, “The RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), BJP’s ideological parent, is omnipresent in Rajkot whereas Congress organisation is not that robust. On top of this, Dhanani got only 15 days to campaign and tried to reach out to over 20 lakh voters of the constituency.” According to rough estimates, Rajkot has an estimated population of around six lakh people from the Patidar community.   While Rupala is a Kadva Patel, a sub-caste of Patidars, Dhanani hails from Leuva Patel sub-caste group that numerically dominates the constituency. “But Kshatriya agitation apparently bridged these caste fault lines for the BJP,” says Rajani.

With a population of around 1 lakh in the constituency, the Kshatriyas – despite statewide protests – could not create an electoral dent with their stir. Following a remark by Rupala during a speech at an event in March, which was labelled as ‘insulting’ to the community, Kshatriyas had sought withdrawal of Rupala’s candidature. The BJP, however, did not heed the demand even as Rupala and other BJP leaders apologised profusely.

Rupala at the event in March had suggested that kings in the colonial era bowed down to foreign rulers and sought friendly ties with them by breaking bread with them and giving their daughters in marriages. This prompted Kshatriya women to come out on streets, shouting slogans and taking out rallies.

In a first in 50 years, the constituency witnessed a battle between two leaders who were not from Rajkot. Both Rupala and Dhanani hail from Amreli district.

Dhanani said he was fighting the elections to protect the honour of women and to save the Constitution. He even suggested that he would fight the polls much earlier before the scheduled date of May 7.  The Congress leader seemed confident of a win even as he had lost from Amreli to then sitting BJP MP Naran Kachhadiya in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

It was Rupala’s maiden Lok Sabha poll.  He had faced defeat in the 2002 state elections from Amreli where Paresh Dhanani, who was 26 at the time, won.

Traditionally, Rajkot has been no less than a prestige battle. Keshubhai Patel, the first BJP leader to become Gujarat’s chief minister –  had fought and won from the seat. Both Vallabh Kathiria, Rajkot MP from 1996 to 2009, and Mohan Kundariya – Rajkot MP between 2014 and 2024 – served as union ministers.  Rupala, who the BJP fielded in place of Kundariya for the 2024 election, has been union minister of fisheries, animal husbandry and dairying in the outgoing Narendra Modi government. He is expected to get a berth in the new NDA government.

The vote share of Dhanani, former leader of Opposition in Gujarat Assembly, is the lowest vote share for Congress in Rajkot  Lok Sabha seat since 1999 when Vitthal Radadiya had got only 18.99 per cent of votes against Kathiria, the then-sitting BJP MP from Rajkot. It was the third lowest in the past 40 years. Rama Mavani, the then sitting MP of Congress, managed to secure only 29.35 per cent votes in 1989 while handing over the BJP its first victory from this seat.

Furthermore, the city of Rajkot has a very strong presence of the RSS. Thanks to that, Jana Sangh, the former avatar of BJP, had tasted success from Rajkot seat as early as 1977 when Keshubhai Patel won here. In the 10 elections in Rajkot Lok Sabha seat since 1989, Congress won just once in 2009 when Kuvarji Bavaliya, a leader hailing from Koli community (an OBC group), defeated Kiran Bhalodiya, an educationist belonging to Kadva Patel sub-caste group of Patidar community.

In that election, Bavaliya secured 47.34 per cent votes while the BJP’s share fell to 43.54 from 59.52 percent in 2004. That was also the election held post a delimitation exercise that saw caste equations getting rearranged.