Eight tribal constituencies vote in higher numbers, some ST Assembly seats see more polling than ’22

Valsad, which recorded the highest turnout in the state at 72.24% on May 7, saw 75.48% turnout in 2019 – a drop of 4.25%. Bardoli, Chhota Udepur, Dahod and Panchmahal’s numbers dipped by 4% to 12% as compared to 2019 (see box).

In fact, Chhota Udepur saw its turnout drop by 12.57%, though the ST Assembly constituencies under the Lok Sabha seat recorded a 65.10% turnout – higher than the 63.95% witnessed in the 2022 Assembly polls. Sankheda and Jetput Assembly seats in Chhota Udepur recorded a deficit turnout of 5% and 6%, respectively, compared to 2019 polls. Nandod AC, home to the Statue of Unity, polled 72.96% this year, 3% lower than 2019.

In Dahod, where polling on May 7 dipped by 7.91% when compared to 2019, Limkheda recorded the highest voter turnout of 65.05% among the seven Assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha seat. Limkheda is home to BJP MP Jasvantsinh Bhabhor, who is seeking a
third term.

Similarly, Khedbrahma AC Assembly seat in Sabarkantha, from where MLA Tushar Chaudhary is the Congress Lok Sabha candidate, recorded a turnout of 70.73% — 1% short of the 2019 number. Overall, Sabarkantha saw its turnout dip by 4%.

INDIA Bloc Bharuch candidate Chaitar Vasava, the MLA from Dediapada, which recorded the highest turnout in the state at 83.95% on May 7 — though 1.2% lower than the 2019 turnout — feels that the tribals were “deterred” by the additional police deployment. “Several tribal youth voters were randomly picked up by the police deployed in the stronghold areas of the INDIA bloc on the pretext of prohibition law and other trivial reasons. It caused panic in some Assembly constituencies and many could not vote.”

“Otherwise, if I speak for Bharuch, tribal seats have voted in high numbers like 2022… It is the urban voters who have abstained, bringing down the overall turnout. The urban voters are BJP supporters but have become fatigued. Since they do not have the mindset to vote for another party, they abstain…,” he added.

Dediapada ST Assembly constituency had recorded the highest voter turn out of 82.71% in the 2022 Gujarat polls as well, when Vasava had won by a one lakh votes.

Nizar Assembly constituency in Bardoli Lok Sabha seat recorded the second highest turnout at 76.05%, followed by Valsad’s Dang AC Assembly seat (74.48%) and Kaprada AC (74.46%). While Dang and Umbergaon Assembly seats in Valsad saw a higher turnout compared to the 2022 Gujarat polls, MLA Anant Patel’s constituency of Vansda saw its turnout dip by 4.6%.

Patel, Congress’ Valsad Lok Sabha candidate, said, “The highest turnout was recorded by Valsad Lok Sabha constituency, which is majorly dominated by tribals. The reason behind this is our fight against the Par Tapi Narmada river linking project, in which agricultural land and houses of many villagers will be snatched away, and the Mumbai-Vadodara highway project.”

Patel faces BJP’s Dhaval Patel — a first-time candidate – who replaced sitting MP Dr K C Patel. While Congress has complained to the Election Commission about voters being “threatened” and “interrupted” from voting in several constituencies, Congress and AAP leaders feel that the turnout being similar to 2022 is an advantage for their alliance INDIA bloc, as a division of vote has been avoided.
Patel said, “In 2022, AAP dented not only Congress’ but also BJP’s votes. This time, INDIA bloc has strengthened the hold on the vote share…

Interestingly, the BJP had won 23 of the 27 ST Assembly constituencies in 2022 — having won only nine in the 2017 Assembly polls — while Congress won three and AAP one. The vote share, however, showed that Congress and AAP had polled more votes than BJP in 17 ST constituencies in 2022. In the Congress bastions of Bhiloda, Dahod, Garbada, Chhota Udepur Mandvi, Vyara, Kaprada and Nizar — which were won by the BJP — Congress and AAP had bagged more than 50% of the vote share.

A senior BJP leader said the decline in turnout in the districts of Chhota Udepur, Dahod and Panchmahal could not be attributed to anti-incumbency, as these are dominated by “migrant population”. “The low turnout can be attributed to the heatwave and also that migrant labourers did not return home to vote this time… Migrant labourers from Chhota Udepur, Panchmahal and Dahod have returned to their workplaces after the long Holi break. They do not frequently visit their villages during peak work season… So, the turnout is lower in these districts as well as the districts where urban population is dominant,” the leader said, adding that there is “no anti-incumbency in tribal pockets”.

Leaders of both Congress and AAP said that major part of election campaigning for tribal voters is managed by local leaders, who are able to communicate in the local dialect, and the candidates only visit for an impact. A Congress leader said, “The tribal voters have a mind of their own, though they are heavily influenced by the candidates. They do not vote in the name of national leaders. But mostly, due to illiteracy and beliefs in the Satipati system (that does not recognise government) in many areas, they also opt for NOTA, though the turnout is higher than urban areas.”

In 2022, seats dominated by the STs saw a relatively higher number of NOTA votes. While Khedbrahma saw 7,331 NOTA votes, Danta saw 5,213, Vyara 3,779 and Chhota Udepur recorded 5,093 NOTA votes.

BJP Lok Sabha MP from Bharuch, Mansukh Vasava, who is seeking a seventh consecutive term, said the high turnout in his seat – second across the state at 68.75% – is an indication of the “campaigning efforts” made by the party. “Tribal areas (Jhagadia and Dediapada) of my constituency have recorded a high turnout. Even my Lok Sabha constituency has recorded a high turnout and it goes to show that election campaigns have been fruitful in encouraging voters to exercise their franchise…”

Tribals said that while many braved the heat to vote, the theme-based polling stations in their areas also attracted young voters. Jetha Vasava from Zarnawadi in Dediapda said, “We never miss voting, as it is our right to choose our leader who listens to us… We see if we have a leader we can have access to… The polling station in our village was also decked up with tribal decorations and it was a festive atmosphere, encouraging many villagers to vote…”

— With Inputs from ‘Kamaal Saiyed in Surat