There has never been a bullet train project that was not completed: JTTRI’s Masafumi Shukuri

What you have to make sure is that the high-speed rail is able to affect the lives of the maximum number of people… (that’s) when you reap the benefits. So, in totality, you may feel that it’s a high-cost system, but the impact that you’re getting – societal as well as economic – is so high.

The first-ever bullet train in Japan, between Tokyo and Osaka, has been immensely successful and viable. Do you see the impact of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train being similar?

Not only is the distance between Mumbai and Ahmedabad coincidentally more or less the same as Tokyo-Osaka, but when the first Shinkansen came in 1964, their populations were much lower than that of Mumbai and Ahmedabad. And the big city between Osaka and Tokyo is Nagoya. On the Mumbai-Ahmedabad route, it is Surat — which is bigger than Nagoya. So, conditions are more conducive for a high-speed rail between Mumbai and Ahmedabad now than they were between Tokyo and Osaka then.

The only one big difference is that Tokyo was and is the capital of Japan, but neither Mumbai nor Ahmedabad are the capital of India. That being said, I don’t think whether the high-speed rail starts, ends, or goes through the capital is the defining factor for the value it offers… Once the Mumbai-Ahmedabad sector becomes a success, I am sure there will be more high-speed rail corridors that will be added across India. There is no doubt that there will definitely be a high-speed line connecting Delhi to some city which experts find appropriate. When the first bullet train was introduced in Japan, it took three hours between Tokyo and Osaka, down from six-and-a-half hours on an express train. The fact that you can just go to that other big city and come back the same day — that is a transformational change in the way you do business, the way the society is. I feel that the same kind of transformation can be expected with the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed train coming in.

A lot of Indians use flights for day trips between cities not far away. Is that more efficient or will a bullet train be more effective in the long run?

There are two airports each in Tokyo and Osaka. Even now, there are flights connecting the two. However, 85 per cent of people use the bullet train and 15 per cent travel by air. There are two reasons for that. One is the carrying capacity — a domestic plane can carry maybe 200-300 people. However, one Shinkansen train set can carry 1,000-1,600 people.

The other reason why Shinkansen is preferred is because getting to the airport, which is slightly away from the city, checking in, going through security, etc can lead to the total time taken being much more than the flying time. When it comes to the Shinkansen, stations are typically located in or very close to the city. And when you are on the train, you can still use the internet – you can work and communicate with people. You can’t do that on the plane.

Has the typical user of the Shinkansen changed over the years? And what has been the increase in fares?

From its opening in 1964 to now, the kind of people who ride the Shinkansen hasn’t changed. Even when it was introduced, business people, families, and tourists were using it and that continues to be the case today too. So, the basic nature of the rider hasn’t changed over the years; it’s not a special privilege.

The cost of tickets is regulated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism because they want to make sure the Shinkansen remains within reach of the common people.

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project was launched with a 2022 completion deadline. Now, we are looking at the operation of the first train by the end of this decade. Are the delays a matter of concern for Japan?

I understand the plan was to commission the high-speed rail in India in 2023. The planning and conceptualisation of this project started around 2015. I know the stakeholders of this project on the Indian side — more specifically, people in the Government of India as well as from National High Speed Rail Corporation Ltd — have been putting in a lot of effort to take this project forward. I also understand that Japan has been continuously sending experts to India and they have been working hard.

That said, sometimes in a project, hurdles can come up. One of the big hurdles in the beginning was land acquisition. There have been several other factors that have contributed to the delay of this project. So, what we are talking about today is the outcome of all of these factors cumulatively.

While this is the situation, I believe the delay is not something that is a matter of concern for Japan. Of course, there is nothing better than completing the project early and on time. But I think in mega projects certain circumstances are unavoidable.

Do such delays happen in Japan?

Yes. Japan already has a network of 3,300 km of high-speed rail and it is in the process of adding four new lines. However, all four of them — for whatever reasons and they are all different — are seeing delays. Even in Japan today, it is really difficult to complete a project as per the initial plan. But while there might be delays and problems, there has never been a Shinkansen or bullet train project that was not completed; it has always been completed. And despite whatever delays, once a project is complete, it has always been welcomed with open arms by the people and I have absolutely no doubt that will be the case in India too

When the bullet train project was launched, Japan had said it would provide E5 type trains. Now, the E10 series will be introduced in India in 2030 simultaneously with the launch in Japan. India is also making its own high-speed train which may run on the same section as the Shinkansen. Tender has been awarded to install its own signalling system. Can the same signalling system be used for the Shinkansen as well as the local high-speed train?

Based on my understanding of the system, the Shinkansen was introduced in Japan 61 years ago. Over this period, this particular system via its various networks across Japan has carried a huge number of people. For 61 years, it has had zero fatalities. Even the delays, if at all, would be about 1 minute in total. So, the system has been operating for 61 years with near-perfect safety and near-perfect punctuality.

This has been made possible only because the Shinkansen system is one, totally integrated system. This includes various components, such as a dedicated high-speed rail line and an Automatic Train Control system that has been digitised over the years and is now called DS-ATC, among others. But it goes beyond integration of the hardware and the software and includes very important components such as operation and maintenance, training of people in different roles, and a very healthy management system. As part of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project, a large number of Indians are undergoing training in Japan.

It is a combination of hardware, software, and training management which has resulted in the Japanese Shinkansen being a system with zero fatality and less than one minute delay overall. It has been 18 years since the Taiwan Shinkansen has been operating. Following exactly the same procedure and the same system, it has also achieved what we call a zero fatality and less than one minute delay. My common sense tells me it is important that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project also maintains the sanctity of this system.

So, if any train other than the Shinkansen were to run on a section, it would compromise the safety and timing related features of the system…

Yes. When we run things at very high speed, you are in charge of the safety and well-being of the people that are riding and you have to make sure you have everything in place which aims at perfect safety and punctuality.

It’s an experiment as it’s not been done before. If you try to bring in uncertainties in this kind of a project, it comes with very high risks.