The BJP has been the ruling party in Madhya Pradesh since 2003, with Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the Chief Minister. Chouhan took office in 2005, and under his leadership, the BJP maintained its grip on power, winning both larger seat tallies and vote shares in the 2013 elections.
The 2018 assembly elections resulted in a hung Assembly, with the Congress emerging as the single largest party. The party nearly doubled its seat tally from the previous election at the expense of the BJP, and its vote share increased by over 4%, resulting in one of the narrowest gaps in vote share between the two parties.
For the 2023 assembly elections, Shivraj Singh Chouhan faces the challenge of countering anti-incumbency and retaining the CM's position. He has been a prominent BJP leader with a strong focus on grassroots policies, pro-women, pro-poor initiatives, and an assertive pro-Hindutva image. Meanwhile, a recent entrant to the BJP, Jyotiraditya Scindia is a prominent leader who switched from the Congress to the BJP in 2020. He currently serves as Union Minister of Civil Aviation and Steel. Kailash Vijayvargiya is expected to play a pivotal role in breaking the Congress stronghold in Indore and the larger Malwa Nimar region. Narendra Singh Tomar, the convenor of the BJP's election management committee is likely to address potential issues between BJP veterans and Scindia loyalists.
The Congress party is relying on a mix of experienced leaders and strong regional faces to make a significant impact. Govind Singh, a seven-time MLA from Lahar in Bhind district, is an influential Thakur community leader known for his close association with former Chief Ministers Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh. Kantilal Bhuria, a senior Adivasi leader and former Union Minister of Tribal Affairs in the UPA government, leads the Congress's election campaign committee. Arun Subhashchandra Yadav representing the influential Yadav community, is vital for the Congress's OBC outreach and is working to woo Scindia loyalists within the community. Ajay Singh, also known as 'Rahul Bhaiya,' is the son of former CM and Union Minister Arjun Singh. He belongs to the Thakur community and has a strong base in the Vindhya region, especially in Sidhi district.
Both parties are focusing on the OBC factor, which constitutes a significant portion of the population in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress is demanding a caste census to appeal to OBC voters, while the BJP, with PM Modi's OBC background, seeks to maintain its stronghold in this community.
Women constitute a significant voter base in the state. Both parties are offering policies targeting women, such as reservation in government jobs and safety measures. The BJP has promised a 35% quota in some government jobs for women. Tribals form a crucial demographic in the state, with a substantial number of reserved seats. The BJP is trying to regain its tribal voter base, which it lost in the 2018 elections.
The BSP is allying with the Gondwana Gantantra Party to target reserved seats. The SP's Akhilesh Yadav expressed a desire for the party to collaborate with the Congress, which is also part of the INDIA bloc in the state.
Additionally, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), another member of the INDIA bloc, entered the state's political arena but struggled to make a significant impact despite contesting in numerous seats.