Top 10 countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024: India’s position explained

To an extent this is true; many expected it would take hundreds of thousands of years to reach a population of 1 billion; the world saw its population grow to seven times that amount in just 200 years.

The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030. As per the UN, further projections suggest that the global population will grow to approximately 9.8 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100.

However, contrarily, the Lancet survey highlighted that by 2025, over three-quarters of the world—specifically, 155 out of 204 countries—will not maintain high enough fertility rates to sustain their populations over time.

Furthermore, the UN Population Fund highlighted the decline of global fertility rates significantly dropping from an average of 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births per woman in 2021.

What is the ‘fertility rate’ and how different it’s from ‘birth rate’?

Both fertility rate and birth rate are indicators of population growth, but they are not the same.

The fertility rate indicates the average number of children a woman of childbearing age is expected to have; a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered the “replacement rate.”

On the other hand, the birth rate measures the number of live births occurring each year for every 1,000 people in a given population.

The total fertility rate is essential for ensuring a stable population over time, as it allows each generation to replace itself, while the birth rate provides insights into the speed at which a population is expanding.

Top 10 countries with the lowest fertility rate in 2024

Taiwan has recorded the lowest fertility rate globally, with an estimated 1.11 children per woman, owing to socio-economic challenges like a wide gender gap, which continue to influence family planning decisions among its population.

Citing a lack of affordable childcare as a concern for working parents, South Korea has initiated a program allowing families to hire foreign nannies, addressing the pressing issue of affordable childcare for working parents.

On the other hand, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has allocated up to $22.3 billion US dollars (3.6 trillion yen) per annum per year to reverse the trend.

Here are the top 10 countries in the world with the lowest fertility rates in 2024:

Source: Statista, CIA.Gov

Please note: Total fertility rate (TFR) measures the average number of children born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate.

Where does India stand?

India—the most populated country in the world by 2024, currently ranks 101st globally with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.03 children per woman, according to estimates for 2024.

India will turn into an ageing society in the next three decades, according to a report in the Lancet. (file)

India has significantly reduced its fertility rates in a relatively short period, as Goli points out, “The journey from six children per woman to a replacement level of 2.1 children took France 285 years and England 225 years, while India achieved this transition in just 45 years. The only country that accomplished this more quickly was China, mainly due to its strict one-child policy.”

Last year, the UN Population Fund’s India Ageing Report projected that the number of elderly people in India will more than double, increasing from 149 million in 2022 to 347 million by mid-century.

While the challenges posed by a growing ageing population may seem distant, it would be wise for this young country to prepare for them in advance.

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