In South, the BJP’s final frontier, what 3 key developments reveal

Today, if the Congress draws its strength from somewhere, it is from the South and two of the three states ruled by the Opposition party are in the South: Karnataka and Telangana. The party is also the junior partner in the DMK-led government in Tamil Nadu.

The BJP has eyed the South for some time but so far the region has resisted the ruling party’s advances. It was only in 2024 that the BJP’s NDA ally Telugu Desam Party (TDP) regained Andhra Pradesh.

It was not for nothing that Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who is normally where action promises to be, was in Coimbatore on the day of Maha Shivaratri, sharing the stage with Shivakumar and spiritual leader Sadhguru Jaggi Vausdev at the Isha Yoga Centre. Shah could have chosen to be in Prayagraj where the Maha Kumb was set to conclude. But, instead, he chose to be in Coimbatore.

The Shashi Tharoor episode

It was Shashi Tharoor who first created a ripple when he told The Indian Express in an interview that opinion polls by independent organisations had shown he was ahead of the others in leadership stakes in Kerala. “If the party wants to use that, I will be there for the party. If not, I have my own things to do. You should not think that I have no other option. I have my books, speeches, invitations from across the world to give a talk,” he said. This, naturally, had the fat in the fire.

Few would disagree that the Congress could, and should, use Tharoor more in Parliament and to win over potential supporters beyond its core constituency. This, as the MP pointed out, is a prerequisite for the party’s revival. Tharoor is not only a four-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram, he has nurtured his constituency well and is a persuasive speaker, able to understand and articulate complex national and global issues.

Unlike in the past when Rahul Gandhi easily let those aggrieved quit the party, he met Tharoor without any delay. Soon thereafter, a meeting of the party’s Kerala leaders was called to plan the 2026 Assembly election strategy in which the MP was present. Tharoor clarified that he was not going to join the BJP or any other party and reiterated that the “options” he spoke of were in the realm of literary pursuits and speaking engagements (which he does anyway).

The speed with which the Congress acted shows that the party assesses it is in with a real chance to regain power in Kerala next year. Tharoor may or may not be projected as the party’s CM candidate, which some in the Congress believe he is angling for, but he may have assured that his supporters stand a better chance of being given tickets. Clearly, the Congress does not want the Tharoor episode to vitiate the atmosphere for the party.

An unapologetic Shivakumar

Then came D K Shivkumar who expressed his angst at the Congress leadership but did so in a more-difficult-to-pin-him-down manner. He simply sat by the side of Jaggi Vasudev at the Isha Yoga Centre near Coimbatore at its annual mega celebrations on Shivaratri, where Amit Shah was also present.

Since both Vasudev and the Home Minister have repeatedly mocked Rahul Gandhi, this unleashed a storm in the state unit. Shivakumar openly praised Vasudev, saying, “I go where my faith is.” He had also taken a dip in the Sangam during Maha Kumbh and was not shy of declaring his Hindu credentials, saying, “I was born a Hindu and I will die a Hindu.”

Shivakumar who is more than a backroom boy or a fund collector for the party, and has a hold amongst the Vokkaligas, the community to which he belongs, is clearly trying to “Hinduise” his political persona with the future in mind. While the Deputy CM may or may not have been explicitly promised CM-ship half way into the government’s tenure, he is shrewd enough to know that the plan could bring down the Congress government with CM Siddharmaiah likely to revolt if shown the door. The rotational two-and-a-half year formula has never worked anywhere so far.

For all his dissatisfaction, Shivakumar would like to ensure, at the least, that for all its talk of the one person, one post formula, the Congress leadership allows him to retain both the Deputy CM-ship and the state Congress president’s post.

Though the Congress has managed, for the moment, to control the damage in both Kerala and Karnataka, damage has been done nonetheless. Tharoor and Shivakumar’s statements have intensified the impression that the Congress is a faction-ridden party and its national leadership is unable to keep its senior leaders in check. This must have made the BJP smile.

Stalin takes on the Centre

Last week, M K Stalin suddenly went ballistic against the Centre’s New Education Policy, equating the three-language formula with yet another attempt to impose Hindi on the southern states. Whether the language issue will have the kind of traction in the Tamil Nadu of 2025 that it did in the state in the 1960s remains to be seen.

“Make more babies” is Stalin’s latest cry to the people of Tamil Nadu. It is the issue of delimitation that could have a greater resonance in Tamil Nadu and all over the South in the time to come. Though Amit Shah has assured the southern states that their seats in Parliament would not be reduced by the delimitation exercise, expected next year, there is a growing anxiety on this count.

Many in the South fear that with the increase of population in the northern states, their numbers will increase in Parliament, enhancing their political clout nationally. In contrast, the southern states, they feel, will be penalised for their success in family planning, education, and health. This is seen as a time bomb ticking away.

On Wednesday, Stalin chaired an all-party meeting on delimitation that the BJP boycotted. A six-point resolution was passed at the meeting, including the demand to extend the 1971-based delimitation framework for another 30 years to ensure fair representation for states that have effectively controlled their population. If the total number of MPs in Parliament is increased, Tamil Nadu must receive a proportionate increase based on the 1971 population figures, as per the resolution.

Is there, then, a common thread binding Tharoor, Shivakumar, and Stalin? Or do they represent standalone developments, coincidentally coming together at the same time? Kerala and Tamil Nadu go to the polls in 2026. It is not surprising that with elections only a year away, these leaders start to let off salvos that help prepare the ground sentiment in their favour. The criticality of Karnataka for the BJP does not need to be spelt out. If it can wrest the state from the Congress, it will acquire a direct presence in the South once again.

The latest developments make one thing clear: 2026 may well be a year that belongs to the South.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)