Jayant Chaudhary in NDA: More a loss for INDIA in UP, BJP already in commanding position

Earlier known as the Bharatiya Lok Dal, the RLD has had alliances with both Congress-led fronts and BJP-led fronts in the past, with Ajit Singh even serving as a Union minister under then PM Manmohan Singh. Its partnership with the SP is relatively recent, with the two parties first coming together in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

However, while the value of the RLD for all these parties has been its hold among the Jats and farmers in western UP, with Charan Singh also well-regarded in Haryana and Rajasthan, this has been on the decline since 2014 and the rise of the BJP under Modi.

Now, as the RLD moves to the NDA, it’s more a blow to the tottering INDIA bloc than a gain for the BJP, which is playing the long game. Plus, the RLD has been trying to secure more from both its ally SP in UP – making its displeasure evident after the party’s initial offer for the coming Lok Sabha polls – and is seen as carrying a grudge over the Congress offering it just 1 seat in the Rajasthan Assembly polls last year.

Jat population in western UP

In 13 of the 18 districts across western UP – Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Mathura, Aligarh, Hathras, Agra and Moradabad – Jats account for a significant chunk of the population. In terms of polls, the Jats hold influence in about a dozen Lok Sabha constituencies and 40 Assembly seats in the region. They are estimated to make up 10-15% of the population in these districts, but are vocal as well as socially dominant, with the capacity to impact the political landscape. Mainly into cultivating sugarcane, they are considered the state’s richest farming community

Socially, Jats are categorised as OBCs in states such as UP, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, though they do not figure in the Central OBC list.

How RLD has fared in LS polls

In the Lok Sabha polls, the RLD has been a minor player and has relied heavily on alliances. The most number of parliamentary seats it has contested in UP is 14, which was back in 1998. Its best tally has been 5, in 2009, when it was allied with the BJP. Apart from 2009, 2004 and 1999 were the only two Lok Sabha elections in which the RLD won any seats. Currently, the party’s sole member in Parliament is Jayant, who was elected to the Rajya Sabha in May 2023 as a joint SP-RLD candidate.

In 2009, the RLD had won Amroha, Baghpat (with the late Ajit Singh as its candidate), Bijnor, Hathras and Mathura (with Jayant as its candidate). In 2004, it had won Baghpat, Bijnor and Kairana; and in 1999, it had secured Baghpat and Kairana.

In 2014, when the RLD contested 8 seats in an alliance with the Congress, it failed to win any. The party’s candidates, in fact, finished fourth in all but 2 seats – Baghpat, where Ajit Singh came third, with 19.9% vote share, and Mathura, where Jayant was the runner-up with 22.7% vote share. Its vote share in other seats twas poor – 8.2% in Hathras, 5.9% in Bulandshahr, 3.8% in Kairana, 2.5% in Fatehpur Sikri, 2.3% in Bijnor and 0.9% in Amroha.

The BJP comfortably won all the 8 seats contested by the RLD.

Its vote share in other seats twas poor – 8.2% in Hathras, 5.9% in Bulandshahr, 3.8% in Kairana, 2.5% in Fatehpur Sikri, 2.3% in Bijnor and 0.9% in Amroha.

In the 2019 polls, when the RLD had an alliance with the SP and BSP, it contested from just 3 seats – Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat and Mathura. All three of its candidates, including Ajit and Jayant, finished runner-up behind the BJP. In Muzaffarnagar, Ajit secured 49.2% of the vote, just 0.4% votes shy of the winner, while Jayant won 48.5% of the votes in Baghpat, losing out by 1.8% of the votes. In Mathura, the BJP won comfortably with a 26.6% vote margin.

In the 2019 polls, when the RLD had an alliance with the SP and BSP, it contested from just 3 seats – Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat and Mathura.

In terms of overall vote share in UP, the RLD secured 0.9% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2019.

How RLD has fared in Assembly polls

In the 2022 Assembly polls, the SP and RLD fought as allies, after the BSP left the SP. The SP recorded one of its strongest performances since 2012, when it had come to power winning 111 of the 347 seats it contested, with the RLD also picking up 8 of the 33 seats in which it featured. The RLD’s overall vote share improved to 2.9% from 1.8% in 2017.

In the 25 seats that the RLD lost, the BJP was by far the dominant party, winning all of them. The RLD was runner-up in 19 of those seats, third in 5 seats and fourth in 1 seat.

If these 2022 UP Assembly poll results were extrapolated to its Lok Sabha constituencies, each of which comprises five to six Assembly segments, the BJP would be overwhelmingly dominant here, with the RLD’s pockets of influence limited to a handful of seats.

The 33 Assembly segments the RLD contested are spread over 14 Lok Sabha constituencies. In these 14 seats, the RLD secured its highest combined vote share in 2022 in Baghpat’s Assembly segments at 44.3%, but still behind the BJP at 44.6%. The only other seats where it was the runner-up to the BJP were Bijnor, Bulandshahr and Muzaffarnagar. While the BJP got an outright majority of votes in 4 seats, its strong performance meant that its vote share exceeded the combined vote shares of the former SP-RLD-Congress combine in 8 seats. The seats where the INDIA bloc, if the RLD was still in it, could have outdone the BJP were Baghpat, Bijnor, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Nagina and Saharanpur. With the RLD out, an SP-Congress grouping may struggle in these seats.