Behind Mayawati tie-up with Gondwana party in MP, Chhattisgarh polls: Dalit-tribal maths for UP

The BSP hopes that if its “alliance experiment” with the GGP works in the MP and Chhattisgarh polls, it may benefit the party electorally in the tribal-inhabited districts of UP too.

BSP chief Mayawati highlighted the tie-up between the two parties in a post on “X” Monday, declaring also that the BSP will go solo in the upcoming Rajasthan and Telangana polls.

Mayawati had earlier claimed that her party will contest the Assembly polls in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana as well as the Lok Sabha elections without any pre-poll alliance.

As per their seat-sharing arrangement for the elections to the 230-member MP Assembly, the BSP will contest 178 constituencies while the GGP will field candidates in 52 seats. For the elections to the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly, the BSP will contest 53 seats while the GGP will field candidates in 37 constituencies.

In MP, 47 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and 35 for the Scheduled Castes (SCs). In Chhattisgarh, 29 seats are STs-reserved and 10 are reserved for SCs.

Dalits make up about 17 per cent of MP’s population whereas tribals account for over 22 per cent of its population. In Chhattisgarh, Dalits account for 15 per cent of the population while tribals’ share in it is 32 per cent.

In both the states, SCs and STs have been largely supporting the Congress and the BJP in the elections.

The GGP, founded in 1991, works for the rights of the Gond people, championing the demand for a separate state of Gondwana. Its traditional support base is in the Mahakaushal region, mainly in Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Seoni, Chhindwara and Betul districts, which have a notable Gond population.

The GGP had failed to win any seat in both MP and Chhattisgarh in the 2018 Assembly elections, when most of its candidates had lost their deposits.

BSP insiders however say that the party has forged an alliance with the GGP to develop a “new social engineering formula by bringing Dalits and tribals voters together, draw support of tribals ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections and thus make a gain in UP in future”.

In the 2018 polls, the BSP had contested 227 seats in MP and won two, with the party garnering 5.01 per cent votes.

In Chhattisgarh, the party had won 2 of the 35 seats it contested, and its vote share was 3.87 per cent.

To justify its alliance with the GGP, the BSP camp refers to its UP rival Samajwadi Party (SP)’s alliance with the GGP in the 2018 MP Assembly elections. The SP had then fought from 52 constituencies there and won one seat. The GGP had contested 73 seats, but failed to win any seat with 68 of its candidates losing their deposits. The GGP’s vote share then was 1.77 per cent.

“But SP had made a gain from that alliance later in UP in 2022 Assembly polls. Gond voters who are GGP’s supporters have presence especially in Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and Chandauli districts, and they had voted for SP in 2022. BSP is also expecting a similar response from Gonds in UP in the coming polls later,” said a BSP leader.

SP spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary admitted that the party’s alliance with the GGP in MP had helped it in the three UP districts in the 2022 polls. In 13 Assembly seats of these UP districts, the SP-alliance could win just one seat but its vote share increased in 11 seats as compared with the 2017 elections.

The BSP’s central coordinator and Rajya Sabha member Ramji Gautam said, “With BSP-GGP alliance, SC and ST communities will come together both in MP and Chhattisgarh. BSP is reaching out to tribal voters in every village. By this alliance, BSP is sending a message among tribals that party is concerned for their empowerment and is providing them a platform.”

On the expected benefits for the party in UP from this alliance, Gautam said, “That will depend upon the results of MP and Chhattisgarh polls results.”

In June this year, Mayawati had deployed her nephew and party national coordinator Akash Anand and Ramji Gautam in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Telangana to make Assembly poll campaign preparations on the issues of Dalits, minorities, backwards and tribals.

Only two out of UP’s 403 Assembly seats are ST-reserved, but the state parties estimate the tribal population in the state to be about 2 per cent spread across 17 districts. Gonds are a major tribal group with presence in all these districts. The GGP had not contested the UP Assembly polls in 2022. In 2017, it had fielded candidates in 11 seats, all of whom lost their deposits.