India aspires to be a $10 trillion economy by 2035. To achieve this, conducting population Census, due in 2021 but postponed indefinitely because of Covid, is necessary. Census data is essential for planning at the village or block level to usher in economic and social development, ensure better governance, and increase the transparency of public schemes and programmes.
There are many reasons why conducting a Census has become a prerequisite for economic development. At present, the biggest challenge facing demographers, planners, and other stakeholders is how to estimate the district population — the district is the basic administrative unit for governing, planning, and executing government projects and schemes. In the absence of updated Census data, demographers estimate the annual population count at the district level using past Census information for the intercensal or postcensal period. Say, to estimate the population of a district in India in the year 2015, they use the district-level population growth rate between the 2001 and 2011 Census. Such demographic exercises give reasonably fair estimates when the year of population estimation is within the range of a maximum of 10 years. Beyond this period, estimations can be erroneous, particularly at the district level due to dynamic patterns of population components, among them fertility, mortality and migration. Many districts of India are experiencing a faster demographic transition with varying fertility and mortality rates. So using the growth rate of 2001-2011 for the period after 2021 becomes more of an assumption-based model than a model that reflects empirical reality. Covid-19 further makes the situation complex as it impacts the fertility and mortality situation in the country. Since many states (and districts) lack a complete civil registration system with a full count of birth and death data, demographers face enormous challenges in providing population counts at the district level. For the above reasons, in several instances, estimates tend to be far off the mark, especially for newly formed districts and states.
Second, migration data collected in the Census has great implications for economic activities and social harmony. As India progresses economically, the pattern of migration within the country, within states as well as outside the country has been changing in unprecedented ways. For instance, even in smaller towns and cities, job patterns have changed. The migration pattern in India in the present decade is very different from what the data in Census 2001 and 2011 suggest. Hence, in the absence of Census data, it is difficult to draw conclusions about migration in India.
Third, the Census counts everyone across regions, classes, creeds, religions, languages, castes, marital status, differently-abled populations, occupation patterns etc. Most national-level surveys such as NFHS and NSSO do not have representative data at the population subgroup level, unlike the Census. The existence of numerous faiths and languages as well as the expansion or extinction of such communities will be known only via population Census.
India has a long history of conducting Census without interruption from 1881 with the rare exception of Assam in 1981 and Jammu Kashmir in 1991 due to sociopolitical unrest and secessionist movements. A regular Census at the national and sub-national levels has been a matter of pride for India. It has to be continued until India achieves a fool-proof civil registration system and a dynamic National Population Register.
Conducting the population Census is a mammoth task, of course. Full involvement of the government system is necessary to organise it. But the Census is necessary since it forms the basis of all the plans and programmes that the government wants to implement. Postponing the Census has immediate and long-term negative consequences for India. The government and other stakeholders should take urgent steps to conduct the Census as early as possible.
The writer is Professor in Public Health and Mortality Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences. Views are personal
