Haryana Exit Poll Results 2024 Live Updates: Congress sweep in Haryana, BJP to miss hat-trick

Rohtak MP and senior Congress leader Deepender Singh Hooda said on Saturday that the people of Haryana have "sealed the departure of the BJP government". Taking to social media platform X, Hooda wrote: "People exercised their franchise in large numbers and voted for prosperity and development in the state." "The mandate coming on October 8 will form a Congress government with full majority," he added.

Incumbent Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Saini said that he was confident of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) forming the government with "full majority" after declaration of results on October 8.

Hours after the exit poll results for Haryana Assembly elections were announced, Congress candidate from Kaithal constituency Aditya Surjewala said that "exit polls always show fewer seats for Congress, as seen in the Lok Sabha election results".

He added that Congress would get a "strong majority" with over 70 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly.

With Congress likely to make a comeback in Haryana, speculation has started who will become the Chief Minister.

Here are some potential claimants:

1) Bhupinder Singh Hooda: He has been the CM from 2005-2014, and is one of the most senior Congress leaders in the state. Hooda, 77, said during the election that he has not retired yet.

2) Kumari Selja: The Sirsa MP is also being seen as a major contender for the CM’s post. Apart from being a prominent Dalit face, she is also known for her proximity with the Gandhi family. The 62-year-old is also vocal about her opposition to Bhupinder Hooda's dominance in Haryana Congress.

3) Deepender Singh Hooda: There is also a buzz in the Congress circles that if Hooda bows out of the CM race, his son and Rohtak MP, Deepender Hooda, would emerge as a “formidable claimant” for the CM’s chair.

4) Randeep Singh Surjewala: The 57-year-old Rajya Sabha MP is considered by his aides as a “dark horse” in the CM race. After casting his vote in his home turf, Kaithal, he said, “Having the CM ambition is not wrong. We will accept the decision taken by Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge for CM face”.

5) Udai Bhan: Party sources say the state Congress chief and Dalit leader Udai Bhan, a known Hooda loyalist, is also one of the CM aspirants. Sources told The Indian Express that in one of the meetings with the AICC leaders in Delhi, Bhan had also staked his claim if the party would name a Dalit face as the CM.

The India Today-CVoter survey has predicted 50-58 seats for the Congress in Haryana, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) likely to win 20-28 seats.

Former deputy CM Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) is likely to win 0-2 seats in Haryana.

News 24 has predicted 55-62 seats for the Congress in the recently concluded Haryana Assembly elections. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win 18-24 seats, way below the majority mark of 46 in the 90-member House.

The Times Now exit polls has predicted 50-64 seats for the Congress in Haryana. The party is likely to make a strong comeback in the state, after a decade.

Dainik Bhaskar exit polls have predicted 44-54 seats for the Congress in Haryana.

According to NDTV Poll of Polls, the Congress is set to win 55-62 seats in Haryana, securing a clear majority in the 90-member Assembly.

Pollster People's Pulse has predicted a clear victory for the Congress in the Haryana Assembly elections, projected 55 seats for the grand old party in the 90-member Assembly.

According to People's Pulse, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is far behind, with 26 seats.

Meanwhile, regional parties like the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are losing ground.

According to NDTV Poll of Polls, the Congress is set to make a comeback in Haryana after a decade with 49-61 seats.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, is looking at securing 20-32 seats.

The 25 Assembly seats along the Grand Trunk (GT) Road spread across six districts of Haryana hold the key for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it faces a 10-year anti-incumbency this election, along with the wrath of farmers and backlash from wrestlers.

The seats, often referred to as the GT Road belt, have emerged as a stronghold for the party over the years. “A lot of development has happened in the area, which encompasses major cities like Ambala, Panipat, Karnal, Kurukshetra and Sonipat,” BJP spokesperson Jawahar Yadav told The Indian Express.

Unlike the other regions of Haryana where Jats and Yadavs are seen to hold sway, the GT Road belt is demographically different and has a significant population of OBCs and upper castes like Brahmins, Baniyas, Khatris. Local leaders of the BJP and the Congress attribute this to the business communities settling along the GT Road and the subsequent urbanisation.

The following Assembly seats fall under the GT Road belt: Ambala City, Ambala Cantt, Mulana, Radaur, Naraingarh, Sadhaura, Jagadhri, Yamunanagar, Shahbad, Thanesar, Nilokheri, Pundri, Ladwa, Indri, Gharaunda, Karnal, Panipat Rural, Panipat City, Samalkha, Ganaur, Sonipat, Rai, Kalka, Panchkula and Israna.

During the election campaign, the Nuh riots were a recurring issue, with candidates blaming each other for the flare-up and the state action in its wake. The Congress has repeated all its sitting MLAs in the elections, including in the three seats of the Nuh district – Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka and Punhana. Among them is Mamman Khan from Ferozepur Jhirka, who was arrested last year for the riots.

Given bail in four cases in October 2023, Khan was slapped with the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, or the UAPA, earlier this year. Recently, the Haryana Police approached the Punjab and Haryana High Court seeking cancellation of his bail.

For Congress, and to some extent the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), bulldozers served multiple purposes this election – they towered above all, they excited crowds, and sent a message “against BJP politics”, particularly in Nuh, which was rocked by communal riots last year.

Around the same time as Congress supporters were being showered with petals by bulldozers in Nuh on the last day of campaigning, INLD Ferozepur Jhirka candidate Mohammad Habib was being welcomed similarly with currency notes elsewhere in the district.

The Congress’s sitting MLA and candidate from Nuh, Aftab Ahmed, said the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) used bulldozers as “a weapon of power to demolish the homes of SCs and Muslims”. “By our action, we are countering their politics. Recently, the Supreme Court also took up this matter. Our government won’t go against the law and demolish people’s homes based on their caste or religion.”

INLD Ferozepur Jhirka candidate Mohammad Habib acknowledged the popularity of bulldozers for campaigning in Mewat. But while slamming the BJP for its “bulldozer justice”, he said that more than this, the USP of bulldozers was that “they are bigger than any other machine”.

The 2024 Lok Sabha data for Haryana extrapolated to the Assembly segment level suggests the state could see a hung House this time. It had also seen a hung Assembly after the 2019 elections. At the Assembly segment level – each Lok Sabha constituency contains several Assembly constituencies – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the most votes in 44 of Haryana’s total 90 Assembly seats. The Congress was not far behind at 42, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leading in the remaining four seats. The Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) did not lead in any Assembly segment.

Haryana's electoral landscape saw a major upheaval ahead of the Assembly elections, when the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) ended its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. JJP has now allied with Nagina MP Chandrashekhar Azad’s Aazad Samaj Party.

Meanwhile, the Opposition INDIA bloc partners Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) were unable to come to an agreement for the Haryana Assembly polls.

Lastly, the O P Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is contesting with the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), sensing that livelihood issues will matter to Haryana voters more than anything else, had adjusted its strategy during the campaigning period ahead of the elections.

It focussed on the state government’s track record over the past decade, rather than relying only on the image and popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This also marked the the first time in a decade that Modi was not front and centre in an election campaign by the BJP.

On the campaign trail, the party spoke of creating jobs transparently, the Nayab Saini administration’s decision to increase the annual income limit for the creamy layer among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) from Rs 6 lakh to Rs 8 lakh, and a host of sops announced for government employees, backward communities, and panchayat chiefs.

A few months ago, the issue of unemployment had dented the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections — the party lost five of the 10 parliamentary seats to the Congress. Ahead of the Assembly elections, BJP workers talked about the Saini government’s efforts to create jobs, to counter the Congress’s narrative on joblessness.

As Haryana votes today, the Congress seems confident of a win, with senior leaders Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja lining up to be in the running for the Chief Minister race.

In 2019, Haryana saw a fractured mandate, with the BJP winning 40 seats, six less than the 46-seat majority mark in the 90-member House. Meanwhile, the Congress bagged 31 seats, the JJP 10, and the INLD one. The Dushyant Chautala-led JJP proved to be the kingmaker, striking an alliance with the BJP to form a coalition government.

The results for the Haryana polls will be out on October 8, along with that of J&K.

In the previous Haryana Assembly elections in 2019, most exit polls had predicted a decisive victory for the BJP. India Today had forecast 38 seats for the BJP, 36 for Congress, and 8 for other parties. Similarly, the ABP-C Voter projected 72 seats for the BJP and 8 for Congress, while News 18-IPSOS estimated 75 seats for the BJP and 10 for Congress. However, the election resulted in a hung Assembly, with no party securing a majority. The BJP eventually formed the government with the support of the JJP and several Independent MLAs.

Key contests include incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Saini facing off against sitting Congress MLA Mewa Singh in Ladwa. In Garhi Sampla-Kiloi, former CM and veteran Congress leader Bhupinder Hooda will challenge BJP’s Manju Hooda, the daughter of a retired police officer. In Uchana, Congress’s Brijendra Singh, son of former Union minister Birender Singh, will take on Jannayak Janata Party’s chief Dushyant Chautala. Wrestler-turned-politician Vinesh Phogat, who joined Congress last month, is competing against AAP’s Kavita Dalal, a professional wrestler, and BJP’s Yogesh Kumar for the Julana seat.

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Follow us as we bring you the latest updates from the exit polls of the Haryana Assembly elections 2024.

All eyes are on whether the ruling BJP will win a third term, or whether the principal opposition party, the Congress, scripts its comeback after 10 years out of power in the state.