Telangana heads for a nail-biting finish, as Cong closes gap with BRS
Welfare schemes, a stable nine-year government, and maintaining law and order in Telangana are giving the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) confidence against a resurgent Congress, and the BJP in the November 30 Assembly polls.
First off the blocks, the BRS hit the ground on August 21 with the announcement of 115 candidates by party supremo and chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), leaving little room for last-minute rebellions or resentments even as the Congress and BJP struggled to finalise their candidates.
KCR also announced an extensive state-wide campaign schedule starting October 15. The CM has addressed meetings in 97 of the 119 Assembly constituencies while his son and nephew – ministers K T Rama Rao and T Harish Rao – have addressed over a 100.
W for welfare, R for religion, O for OBCs: Parties have found a common poll language
As the poll fever for the five Assembly elections winds down – even though both Rajasthan and Telengana have become unexpectedly exciting, with the Congress putting up a fight – it’s time to capture some broad trends.
What is striking are the areas where a consensus is now developing across parties, and one of them is the need to provide social welfarism – call it freebies, doles, handouts, what you will – as part of a safety net. The Congress and BJP are vying with each other to promise – and mount – new welfare schemes.
The Ladli Behna Yojana to give financial help to women has helped the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. With its guarantees which yielded it rich dividends in the recent Karnataka elections, the Congress is playing the social welfare card to the hilt in all the states. In Rajasthan, the BJP has urged people to not be taken in by “magician” Ashok Gehlot, knowing some of his government’s welfare schemes have gone down well. In Chhattisgarh, the loan waiver promise of the Congress to farmers could be a gamechanger.
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Veteran Congress leader and ex MP CM Kamal Nath today called upon party workers and said, "Congress workers should come on the ground with full force. BJP has lost the elections. Some exit polls have been intentionally released to demoralise Congress workers. This conspiracy will not be successful."
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BJP Floor Leader and MLA of Goshamahal Raja Singh said, "No party will have a majority in the 2023 elections, whether it's BJP, BRS, or Congress. Speaking specifically about BJP, we can observe an increase in the number of seats for the party, and our survey indicates that we will win up to 14 seats."
Amid clamour in Mizoram to change the date of assembly election vote counting day, the Election Commission of India has reschuled the counting date from Dec 3 to Dec 4 in the northeastern state.
elangana cabinet meeting is scheduled to be held on December 4, official sources said on Friday.
Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao will chair the meeting at 2 pm, an official release from Rao's office said without disclosing the agenda. The meeting will be held a day after the results of the assembly elections are announced on December 3.
Election for the 119-seat assembly was held on Nov 30. (PTI)
Talking about who the BJP's choice for CM seat in Rajasthan would be, BJP MP Rajyavardhan Rathore said, "10-15 BJP leaders in Rajasthan are being asked the same question, It's good that the BJP leadership in Rajasthan is strong. This is certain that PM Modi and our Parliamentary board will decide it and the decision is made when the time comes. The elections have ended now and the decision further will be taken after that."
Rajasthan Chief Electoral Officer Praveen Gupta outlined the preparations for counting of votes in the state on Dec 3.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Election Officer Anupam Rajan said,"77.15 per cent polling took place in EVMs and adding postal ballots to it, the voter turnout (for MP Assembly polls) stands at 77.82 per cent. The voter turnout in the previous Assembly polls was 75.63 per cent. So, it is an increase of 2.19 per cent."
Former Rajya Sabha MP Renuka Chowdhury commented on the exit poll numbers and said that there no doubt that Congres will form governement in the southern state of Telangana. "I know the pulse of the common man and I know that Congress is coming to power," she added.
Hopeful of wresting power from the BRS in Telangana, Congress leader Deepa Das Munshi said, "We will not predict anything on exit polls, but the ground reality is that we are forming government in Telangana. In other states too, we are in a very very comfortable position."
Optimistic that the saffron party will retain power in Madhya Pradesh, Minister of State for Rural Development Faggan Singh Kulaste said, "Because of the work done for women in Madhya Pradesh, especially the 'Ladli Behna' yojana, it seems that the women are with BJP. It is confirmed that the BJP will form the government. In 2018, we won 109 seats and the Congress won 114 seats. The BJP will perform even better this time. We will reach the majority."
Now that the month-long Assembly elections to five states are finally over, a look at the respective turnouts in Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana show that they have largely held on to the trend of consistently rising voting percentages. Except in Chhattisgarh and Telangana (as per provisional data on December 1 morning), the turnout is higher in the rest of the three compared to 2018.
However, do voter turnouts really tell a story, especially the commonly and long held belief that higher voting indicates anti-incumbency? A look at voting over the years shows that may not be the case, with some now even talking about a concept of “pro-incumbency”, like in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which saw a record-high voter turnout – and the BJP’s win by bigger numbers than in 2014. (Read more)
Punjab Congress president and MLA of Gidderbaha Amarinder Singh Raja Warring commented on the exit poll numbers and said, "Exit polls analysis shows that Congress will be forming government in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Telangana. It indicates that people have understood that Congress can only bring progress in the country."
"Under the guidance of PM Modi, the double-engine government in Madhya Pradesh has worked for the welfare of the people in the state. Our women-centric schemes have benefitted them," said Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj singh Chouhan.
Speaking about the vote counting day, Telangana Chief Electoral Officer Vikas Raj said, "Counting of votes will begin at 8 am. At first postal ballot will be counted. We have 2 lakh postal ballots this time and then EVM votes will be counted from 8.30 am onwards. We should start getting the trends by 10 am."
Assured of a positive outcome for his party, BJP MP Rajyavardhan Rathore said that the voting percentage was higher in Rajathan this time, that indicates an enthusiasam in the electorate to bring about a change. He explained, "Right now, the BJP government is the change after the bad governance of the Congress... This time the voters were silent. They did not even share with their neighbour whom they had voted for. We can assume how accurate the exit polls might be in such a situation... The analysis made by the BJP workers at the time of voting is much more accurate than the exit polls. The BJP is going to form the government in Rajasthan..."#WATCH | Jaipur, Rajasthan: On assembly elections Exit Polls, BJP MP Rajyavardhan Rathore says, "This time the voting per cent was higher in Rajasthan. Voting per cent is higher when there is enthusiasm in the voters to bring a change... Right now, the BJP government is the… pic.twitter.com/qdRWcBklq1— ANI (@ANI) December 1, 2023
Citing the wrong forecast of exit polls in 2018, BRS leader Putta Vishnuvardhan Reddy today said that last time, nearly 80% of all predictions were wrong. Confident that KCR will retain the CM seat for a third time, he said, "We would like to question the Election Commission of India as to how the exit polls are allowed to be released when the polling is not yet done. Because at 5 pm yesterday, 63% of people cast their vote, and by the end of the day, it had topped 70%. So 7-8% of voters who were queuing up to cast their vote would be indirectly influenced by the exit poll surveys... Another point is that even in 2018, immediately after the exit polls, Revanth Reddy addressed the press, and he said that the grand alliance of Congress is coming back to power. He said that if he loses the Kodangal seat, he will permanently retire from politics... We believe that we are going to win more than 70 seats."
Madhya Pradesh Home Minister Narottam Mishra reacted to the state exit poll results released on Thursday evening saying that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win over 150 seats in the state assembly polls, news agency ANI reported.
"I had said in the beginning that we would win around 150 seats. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done work where the poor people have benefitted be it Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), Ujjwala Yojana or Ayushman Bharat scheme. Similarly, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, as soon as he came into power, introduced many schemes beneficial to the poor. We are confident that we will win more than 150 seats," the home minister said while speaking to ANI in Madhya Pradesh's Gwalior district on Friday.
Between now and Sunday, when the results come for the Assembly elections to five states, a lot of the analysis will be centred on the exit polls whose data was released Thursday evening. But experience shows that there is no guarantee of accuracy when it comes to exit polls — which are as likely as to be accurate as wildly off the mark.
In the 2018 Assembly polls, the averages of the selected exit polls here were off by only a handful of seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but their predictions were inaccurate by a considerable margin for Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram.
Read on
In the wake of recent exit polls, Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat has claimed that sentiment among the people appears to be against the Congress government.
"People of Rajasthan were angry as the law and order situation failed, crimes against women increased and corruption rose in the state and as a result, they made up their minds to uproot the Congress government," he said.
Rajasthan BJP president CP Joshi conveyed a strong belief in the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) electoral prospects in the state, asserting that the party is poised to form the government in Rajasthan with a substantial mandate.
"Have seen people's confidence in BJP and PM Modi. I have also seen the hard work of thousands of party workers, and based on that, I can say that BJP will form govt in Rajasthan with 135 seats...," he said.
How does the common man judge which exit poll is most reliable? Rely on the one whose numbers you like the most and dismiss the one whose numbers you dislike? Today, some even judge the accuracy of an exit poll by looking at the survey agency that conducted the poll, or by looking at the television channel that commissioned the poll. Some others make a judgment from the sample size — a commonly shared notion is that the bigger the sample size, the more reliable should be the exit poll.
In reality, these should not be the indicators for judging the accuracy of an exit poll. Then how should one read these numbers, and should we even rely on these exit polls? Sanjay Kumar, Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), explains
Following the release of exit polls, Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya expressed confidence in the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) potential to form governments with significant mandates in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
"The BJP is definitely forming the government... We are going to form a government in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh with a huge majority... In Telangana and Mizoram, the BJP will have its biggest win in history... The lotus will bloom in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh... The opposition is powerless and without any agenda. They are going to remain out of power because of the activities they do..." he said.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and Chhattisgarh Leader of Opposition (LoP), Narayan Chande, has exuded confidence in the party's prospects in the state, expressing optimism about securing an absolute majority in the state.
"We believe that the BJP will get the blessings of the people of Chhattisgarh and will form the government with an absolute majority in the state on December 3," he said.
EXIT POLLS aired by major television networks for the five states where Assembly elections were held this month on Thursday predicted that the Congress could retain power in Chhattisgarh and oust the BRS in Telangana. While most of the polls gave a clear edge to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, they differed in the outcome for Rajasthan, while predicting that Mizoram could be headed for a hung Assembly.
Chhattisgarh Congress President Deepak Baij has expressed confidence in the party's performance in the recent elections, citing positive exit polls from various states. While addressing the media, Baij highlighted the encouraging signs in Madhya Pradesh and Telangana, predicting a victory for the Congress.
"Exit polls of other states are good. The atmosphere in Madhya Pradesh & Telangana is also good. We will get around 80 per cent seats in Telangana. Congress will form government in four states..." he said.
The Congress and BJP expressed optimism about winning the Rajasthan assembly polls following the release of exit poll predictions on Thursday.
Although the majority of pollsters indicated a potential advantage for the BJP in Rajasthan, three exit polls in their upper limit forecast a victory for the Congress in the state.
Voting in Rajasthan took place on November 25, and the results are scheduled to be announced on December 3.
Senior BJP leader Rajendra Rathore said his party's tally will be higher than that predicted by exit polls because "there was an undercurrent against the Congress", news agency PTI reported.
"The polling percentage this time was at an all-time high..., which also indicates that there was anti-incumbency," he said.
Reacting to the exit poll predictions, BJP MP and party candidate from the Tijara assembly constituency Baba Balaknath said, "The people of Rajasthan want freedom from the Congress, given their record of corruption. The BJP is going to form the government with a majority in Rajasthan as well as Madhya Pradesh."
Congress leaders also expressed hope that the party would win and form the government in the state.
"Exit polls indicate that 'raaj nahi rivaz' (trend, not rule) is set to change in Rajasthan as the Congress is going to win a majority," Congress spokesperson Gourav Vallabh said on the exit polls.
He was referring to the trend in Rajasthan of the incumbent party being voted out every five years.
As exit polls by news channels on Thursday predicted a close contest in Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who relied heavily on the Ladli Behana Yojana to beat off anti incumbency, remained confident of a BJP victory.
The BJP remained esctatic over the polls predicting it to retain power. It’s leaders have largely pinned their hopes on a host of welfare schemes targeted at the poorest sections of society.
“I have always said that there is no competition in Madhya Pradesh and BJP is going to get a clear majority. The love and guidance of PM Modi, the strategies of Amit Shah, the leadership of JP Nadda, the efforts of our workers and the schemes of our government made it clear that BJP is getting a majority in the state,” Chouhan said.
Medical education minister Vishwas Sarang said, “BJP will form the govt in Madhya Pradesh comfortably, with a majority. The people of Madhya Pradesh have made up their mind that a BJP government is formed…I don’t want to comment on the exit polls but, I can assure you on December 3, a BJP government will be formed.
The Congress party has largely remained unfazed by the exit polls. Former CM Kamal Nath expressed his confidence and said that on December 3, the public would vote in a Congress government. Read Full Report
Chhattisgarh deputy Chief Minister T S Singh Deo on Thursday said he takes exit polls results with a pinch of salt and the Congress will retain power in the state. The party high command's choice for the chief minister's post would be acceptable to all, he told PTI in Delhi.
A few exit polls on Thursday predicted a close race between the ruling Congress and opposition Bharatiya Janata Party in Chhattisgarh.
"As far as projections are concerned, I always take them with a pinch of salt. They are attempts by various news channels and agencies to guess what may have happened in elections. We should wait for the 3rd (of December)," Singh Deo told PTI.
As most Exit polls predicted an edge to the ruling Congress in Chhattisgarh, both Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and former CM Raman Singh on Thursday predicted thumping wins for their parties.
Talking to reporters at Raipur airport, Baghel, when asked about exit poll predictions, said, "..is there similarity between exit polls (of different agencies and channels)? After two days (on December 3) everyone will show the same poll outcome. Let the exit polls play out but we will form the government with full majority.” Queried about the exit poll of one channel predicting 57 seats for the Congress in the 90-member Assembly, he said, "It will be more than that and 57 will be 75 (seats). The order will be changed."
Meanwhile, senior BJP leader and former CM Raman Singh said his party will get 52-55 seats and form government with a clear majority. "Exit polls are showing that BJP is reaching 48 seats from 15 (seats won by party in 2018), which is a result of the party's efforts in electioneering. But I believe BJP will get 52 to 55 seats. It will be clear after counting of votes on December 3," Singh said.
In Mizoram, almost all the polls predicted a hung House as they predicted that the ruling Mizo National Front, which had won 27 of the 40 seats, may not cross the halfway mark this time and nor will its main challenger the Zoram People’s Movement. The polls predicted that the Congress could emerge victorious in around half a dozen seats, which could put it in the kingmaker’s position. While India TV-CNX said the MNF would get 14-18, ZPM 12-16, Congress 8-10 and BJP 0-2, ABP News-C Voter said MNF would get 15-21, ZPM 12-18 and Congress 2-8. Jan Ki Baat said the MNF would get 10-14 seats, ZPM 15-25 seats, Congress 5-9 and the BJP 0-2.
In Telangana, the Exit polls have predicted a close fight between the ruling BRS and the Congress with India TV-CNX predicting 31-47 seats for BRS and 63-79 seats for the Congress; BJP is predicted to win 2-4 seats while AIMIM has been given 5-7 seats. Jan Ki Baat has predicted 40-55 seats for BRS and 48-64 seats for Congress; BJP is predicted to win 7-13 seats and AIMIM 4-7. Republic TV has predicted 46-56 seats for BRS, 58-68 seats for Congress, 4-9 seats for BJP and 5-7 seats for AIMIM. TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstart has predicted 48-58 seats for BRS, 49-59 seats for Congress, 5-10 seats for BJP and 6-8 seats for AIMIM.
The Exit polls have predicted an edge for the BJP in Congress-ruled Rajasthan with the Jan Ki Baat stating the BJP to win 100-122 seats and the Congress 62-85 seats. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has predicted 100-110 seats for BJP and 90-100 seats for the Congress. Times Now-ETG has predited 108-128 seats for BJP and 56-72 seats for the Congress while Dainik Bhaskar has given 98-105 seats to the BJP and 85-95 seats to the Congress. India Today has predicted 80-100 seats for BJP and 86-106 seats for Congress.
In Chhattisgarh also, the Exit polls have predicted an edge for the Congress with India Today predicting 36-46 seats for the BJP and 40-50 seats for the Congress. ABP News C-Voter has given 36-48 seats to the BJP and 41-53 seats for the Congress. India TV has predicted 30-40 seats for the BJP and 46-56 seats for the Congress. Jan Ki Baat has given 34-45 seats to the BJP and 42-53 seats to the Congress. Dainik Bhaskar has predicted 35-45 seats to the BJP and 46-55 seats to the Congress.
The Exit polls have predicted a tight contest in Madhya Pradesh with the Jan Ki Baat stating the BJP to win 100-123 seats and the Congress 102-125 seats. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has predicted 106-116 seats for BJP and 111-121 seats for the Congress. Republic TV-Matrize has predited 118-130 seats for BJP and 97-107 seats for the Congress. Dainik Bhaskar has given 95-115 seats to the BJP and 105-120 seats to the Congress.
Between now and Sunday, when the results come for the Assembly elections to five states, a lot of the analysis will be centred on the exit polls whose data was released Thursday evening. But experience shows that there is no guarantee of accuracy when it comes to exit polls — which are as likely as to be accurate as wildly off the mark.
In the 2018 Assembly polls, the averages of the selected exit polls here were off by only a handful of seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but their predictions were inaccurate by a considerable margin for Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Read More
Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot on Thursday said he was confident of a Congress win in Rajasthan assembly polls, and added that the BJP would not form the government in any of the five states where elections are being held, PTI reported.
Five state went to polls in November. While polling in Telangana will end Thursday evening, it was held earlier in the month in Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Results of the elections will be declared on December 3.
"Congress government will be formed (in Rajasthan). In all five states, I feel that BJP is not going to form the government. Exit polls may say something, surveys might suggest something, but based on the feedback of people in the cities and villages, I feel that our government should come," Gehlot told reporters in New Delhi.
Mizoram was among the five states that went to the polls this month, with counting of votes in all states to take place on December 3. Issues of “neglect of infrastructure”, corruption and unemployment also figured during the campaigns of various parties. Mizoram saw a voter turnout of 78.40 per cent in the single-phase election for 40 assembly seats in the state on November 7. A total of 174 candidates were in the fray in Mizoram.
The results of Mizoram Assembly Elections 2023 will be announced on December 3 (Sunday). Read More
Gujjula Premender Reddy, Telangana BJP's general secretary, has written a letter to the Election Comission raising concerns over the publication of exit polls at 5.30 pm. Saying that EC allows voters in line to exercise their franchise even post 5.30 pm, he stated the directions should be given to publish exit polls only after the last person in line has cast their vote.
The Congress party is seeking to retain power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress party hopes to return to power. In the last 2018 elections, Congress had managed to win the elections, but a revolt led by Jyotiraditya Scindia in 2020, brought the BJP back into power. Telangana faces a triangular contest with Congress and BJP looking to prevent BRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao’s hat-trick. In Mizoram, the usual Mizo National Front (MNF)-Congress fight has a new challenger — Zoram’s People Movement (ZPM).
The countdown for exit polls for the Assembly elections in five states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram — has begun. The results are expected to begin streaming after polling ends in Telangana.