Why Uddhav Thackeray’s open challenge to Modi-Shah is empty rhetoric

Even before the BJP’s ‘Operation Lotus’ split the Shiv Sena, the party’s electoral graph in the state had been on the decline. In 1999, the party won 69 seats (17.33 per cent vote share) in the state Legislative Assembly elections. Twenty years later, in 2019, the Shiv Sena only managed to win 56 seats (16.41 per cent vote share) – a loss of 13 seats.

Interestingly, in the same period, then alliance partner BJP saw considerable gains. In 1999, the BJP bagged 56 seats (14.54 per cent vote share), and by 2019, this went up to 105 seats (25.75 per cent) – a massive jump of 49 seats.

In its decades-long partnership – 2014 was an exception as the Sena and BJP fought Assembly elections separately with the Sena winning 63 seats (19.35 per cent vote share) and the BJP, 122 seats (27.81 per cent vote share) – the Shiv Sena was led to believe that it had the upper hand in Maharashtra. Over time though, the Shiv Sena’s dominance over its home turf has been dented.

In the 2009 Assembly polls, the BJP, with its 46 seats, surpassed the Shiv Sena which won 44 seats. Five years later, in 2014, the BJP emerged as the leading party after winning 122 seats – this, despite contesting alone. In fact, when the BJP contested with the Shiv Sena in 2019, its tally dipped to 105 seats.

The Shiv Sena, however, has managed to hold its own in Lok Sabha elections. In 1989, the year they struck an alliance, the BJP won 10 Lok Sabha seats and Shiv Sena just one. In 1999, the Shiv Sena, with 15 seats, surpassed the BJP’s 13 in the Lok Sabha elections. In the last Lok Sabha polls, where they contested together, the BJP won 23 seats and the Shiv Sena, 18.

Though the alliance survived from 1989 to 2019, Uddhav Thackeray seems to believe that it has now reached the point of no return. “Had the BJP kept its promise of equal power share, things would have been different…We had to take a different route because the BJP failed to keep its promise. In the past, it was the late Bal Thackeray who saved both (Modi and Shah) and this is how they repaid the gratitude,” he said in his interview.

Uddhav’s open challenge to Modi-Shah is being perceived in the BJP as the outcry of a desperate leader. “He should worry about his handful of MLAs and workers who may also leave him. His party is now miniscule. In the coming days, even that will vanish,” state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said.

While Uddhav questioned why the BJP had to split the Nationalist Congress Party, BJP leaders said it was a political strategy to consolidate and expand the party’s electoral base in Maharashtra. “There was no coercion. Those who joined the BJP wanted to associate with it and play a role in the development of the state and country under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership,” Bawankule said.

Another senior BJP functionary, requesting anonymity, said, “The attack on Modi-Shah is Uddhav’s attempt to stay relevant. The question is, if he was a good leader, why did his MLAs and workers quit?

With the polls around the corner, the war of words between the former alliance partners is likely to intensify. On Uddhav’s birthday on July 27, his followers put up posters declaring him as the potential prime ministerial candidate. Uddhav, however, faces a much bigger challenge – getting his party back on its feet and regaining lost ground in the state.

In its decades-long partnership – 2014 was an exception as the Sena and BJP fought Assembly elections separately with the Sena winning 63 seats – the Shiv Sena was led to believe that it had the upper hand in Maharashtra. Over time though, the Shiv Sena’s dominance over its home turf has been dented.