Karnataka bypolls: Trends hint at even spoils for Congress, BJP, JD(S)

According to Congress sources, there are fears that the ‘Kaala Kumaraswamy’ remark by Housing Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan at a rally on Sunday evening could adversely affect its prospects by increasing the coalition share of the Vokkaliga vote. The JD(S) is carrying out a social media campaign against the remark.

The Vokkaliga-dominated constituency also saw a war of words between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deve Gowda, Kumaraswamy and Deputy Chief Minister and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president D K Shivakumar during the course of the campaign.

On Monday, the last day of public campaigning, Siddaramaiah accused Gowda of not “developing any Vokkaliga leaders” and finishing them off if they did not abide by his diktats. The 91-year-old Gowda has campaigned for eight days straight at the constituency, and attacked Siddaramaiah over the recent corruption charges against him.

Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy are caught in a tussle in Channapatna. Shivakumar, who had launched a campaign in Channapatna months before the polls were announced, had said that his goal was to ensure the Congress won all the four constituencies of Ramanagara. It won three out of four in the 2023 polls. The JD(S) leader, meanwhile, is under pressure to retain the constituency and ensure that he has the upper hand in the battle for Vokkaliga leadership against Shivakumar.

Apart from Channapatna – where a JD(S) candidate is in fray, BJP has fielded its candidates in Sandur and Shiggaon. Sandur previously had Bellary MP E Tukaram as its MLA. He resigned as MLA after winning the 2024 Lok Sabha polls on the condition that a member of his family be fielded from the segment. Congress has fielded his wife Annapoorna, Tukaram’s wife.

The mine-rich Sandur is a ST reserve segment where BJP has fielded actor-turned-politician Bangaru Hanumantha, considered an aide of mining baron and MLA Janardhan Reddy. He, along with Nikhil and Yogeshwara, is the third actor-turned-politician contesting the bypolls. Like the Shivakumar vs Kumaraswamy battle in Channapatna, the bypoll in Sandur is being seen as a proxy war between Karnataka Labour minister Santosh Lad and Reddy.

In Sandur, BJP candidate Bharath Bommai is considered favourite to replace his father in the Legislative Assembly. A second generation politician like Nikhil, he is the son of MP and former CM Basavaraj Bommai, and grandson of former CM S R Bommai. Meanwhile, Congress has fielded Yasir Khan Pathan after battling rebellion in its ranks over the choice of candidate.

Pathan had lost the 2023 polls against Bommai and some in the Congress had recommended fielding a candidate from Panchamasali community, considering the most numerous in the segment. Lapses in the selection of the candidate could make it easier for the BJP in the segment, say insiders.