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At a time when the outcome in southern states is seen as crucial to the BJP‘s 2024 Lok Sabha poll ambitions, developments in two states in quick succession are being read closely by leaders of the party.
The first was the announcement that the JD(S) in Karnataka will join the NDA and contest the 2024 elections and other future polls in alliance with the BJP. Days later, came the declaration by the AIADMK that it was breaking off its alliance with the BJP in Tamil Nadu, having waited for the latter’s national leadership to act against a recalcitrant state chief.
Among the two developments, the BJP-JD(S) tie-up makes more sense on paper, since both parties need recuperating from the big Assembly poll loss four months ago. While the JD(S) is dwindling, its areas of strength in the state complement the BJP’s.
In 2019, the BJP had won 25 of the 28 Karnataka Lok Sabha seats, and while that might not see a repeat, it hopes the JD(S) tie-up will help check the losses.
It’s the Tamil Nadu development that is more puzzling. Party sources said that the national leadership did not expect the AIADMK – which has been bristling against BJP state chief K Annamalai for a while now – to thus break away. The BJP remains in the fringes in the state, and though the long rope to Annamalai might be part of a strategy to help the party grow out of the AIADMK shadow, with 2024 in mind, the BJP could initiate efforts to “patch up” with its ally, sources said.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when the BJP and AIADMK fought together for the first time, the rival DMK-led alliance had won 37 of the 38 seats for which elections were held (the DMK alliance had won 1 more later). The BJP, which had contested 4 seats, had failed to retain the only seat it held from the state.
According to a senior leader in the know, the top BJP leadership had not started giving serious thought to poll talks in Tamil Nadu yet, and might have believed it had time. The leader says Annamalai had also been told recently to not make any provocative remarks against the AIADMK. “It shows that the national leadership was keen to keep the alliance intact.”
However, Annamalai pushed the AIADMK too far into a corner by attacking its icons such as C N Annadurai and Jayalalithaa.
As per these leaders, even if backing Annamalai was part of a larger game plan, the BJP might pay a heavier price for now than the AIADMK, as the national party is still not viewed favourably in the state. The smaller allies of the AIADMK have been pushing against a formal alliance with the BJP.
A BJP leader said: “Annamalai’s aggressive style has kept the BJP alive in the political discourse. We could also argue that the distancing from the AIADMK can help us consolidate our support base independently. But in a state like Tamil Nadu, where even Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity does not have significant traction when it comes to voting, the BJP needs much more than that.”
One of the issues on which Annamalai dug his heels in was the Sanatan Dharma row. But while projecting DMK leaders as anti-Hindu for questioning Sanatan Dharma might pay off for the BJP in the North, this is doubtful in Tamil Nadu, where politics is rooted around social justice and in opposition to caste and religion.
A senior party functionary said he expected the national leadership to step in to patch up ties. “There could be fresh developments in the state towards the Lok Sabha polls.”
The Tamil Nadu rupture is stark compared to Karnataka, where the BJP walked the extra mile to accommodate the JD(S). The regional party posted its worst performance since its formation in the May Assembly polls.
“Although the alliance is projected as a game changer, it is not clear how many Vokkaliga votes will rally behind the JD(S) when the Congress has an influential leader and Deputy Chief Minister from the community in D K Shivakumar,” a source said. The leader also pointed to the apprehensions expressed by some Muslim JD(S) leaders openly over the tie-up.
According to another leader, while the optics of an alliance are great, the impression that has gone out is that “the BJP, which won 25 seats in 2019, does not have confidence that Modi’s popularity and the party’s organisational strength would clinch us a similar win”.
Citing the example of the Samajwadi Party-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh in 2019, in which “arithmetics did not help create chemistry”, the party leader said: “We must also see how the Lingayats react to this announcement.” A rival community to the Vokkaligas, the Lingayats are a strong support base of the BJP.
The JD(S), which is reportedly seeking five Lok Sabha seats, may settle for four. The leader said: “Even if the BJP agrees to give two, it’s advantage JD(S) (the party has only one sitting MP).”
Karnataka, 28 seats: BJP 25, JD(S) 1
Tamil Nadu, 39 seats, contest held in 38: BJP-AIADMK fought together; DMK alliance won 37, AIADMK 1, BJP 0
