Up, down, up, down: As SC order today, how a hung Assembly in 2019 has kept Maharashtra hanging

This comes as relief to CM Eknath Shinde, who could have lost his CM chair had the apex court disqualified 16 MLAs, including the CM.

But where did the seed of this conflict begin? What has transpired until the SC verdict? The answer lies in Maharashtra Assembly election results of 2019.

2019 post-poll scenario

Maharashtra went to polls on October 21, 2019, and the results were announced on October 24 that year. The ruling BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 161 of the 288 seats – the BJP’s highest mandate in the state at 105, along with 56 Sena seats – in the state Assembly. The alliance seemed poised to be in control, until it was not.

A one-month deadlock occurred amid an intensifying power struggle over the CM’s chair. After the results, then Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray had asserted that he did not intend to break the alliance, but expected the BJP to keep its promise of equal power-sharing that it had made during the Lok Sabha elections earlier that year.

On November 7, as the days passed and there was still no breakthrough, leaders of the BJP met Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari alone, and the Sena shifted its MLAs to a Bandra resort, ostensibly to avoid poaching.

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari asserted that the state would soon get a new government, with Devendra Fadnavis returning as CM with the support of the Sena. However, the latter refused to budge until it was promised that the CM post would go to it for two-and-a-half years (or, half the government’s tenure).

With no government even 18 days after the declaration of the Assembly poll results, President’s rule was imposed in the state on November 12.

On November 23, President’s rule was revoked at dawn at 5.30 am. Hours later, Fadnavis was sworn in as Maharashtra CM and the NCP’s Ajit Pawar as Deputy CM by Governor Koshyari. The dramatic turnaround by Ajit Pawar would be followed by more U-turns.

The Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress now announced a combine called the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and moved the Supreme Court, challenging the Governor’s decision, and seeking an urgent hearing. The apex court’s registry posted the matter for hearing the next day. Meanwhile, Ajit Pawar was removed as the NCP party legislature unit head, but not from the party.

Two days later, the Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress combine held a show of strength at a five-star hotel in Mumbai, parading MLAs and claiming they had 162 on their side in a House of 288. In addition, the alliance said it had the support of 15 smaller parties / Independents.

On November 26, the top court ordered a floor test to be held on November 27, saying the entire exercise need to be over by 5 pm and entire proceedings be telecast live.

The floor test was finally held on November 30, and the MVA won, with 169 votes in its favour. Uddhav became the CM.

The Sena split in 2022

Around 31 months later, in a more foundational shift in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena — founded by Balasaheb Thackeray, one of the state’s tallest leaders — split into two.

Thane strongman Eknath Shinde launched a rebellion against the Thackerays on June 20, 2022. Along with a few MLAs, Shinde went to Surat in BJP-ruled Gujarat, where they stayed for two nights, before leaving for Guwahati, in another BJP-ruled state, Assam, on June 22. More MLAs continued to trail in.

Around this time, Uddhav called an urgent meeting of all Sena MLAs, but Shinde skipped it, along with 11 MLAs. The Uddhav faction removed Shinde from the post of legislature party leader. Shinde then reappeared, claiming he had the support of 40 of the Sena’s 56 MLAs, more than the number required to buck the anti-defection law.

The Sena demanded that 16 MLAs who had defied the party whip to be present at the meeting called by Thackeray be disqualified. The request was submitted to Deputy Speaker Narhari Zirwal (there was no Speaker at the time). Meanwhile, two Independent MLAs introduced a no-confidence motion against the Deputy Speaker.

Zirwal issued disqualification notices to the 16 rebel MLAs for their absence at the legislature meeting called by Uddhav.

Shinde moved the Supreme Court to dispute the rejection of the no-confidence vote against the Deputy Speaker, as well as to challenge the disqualification move against him and the 15 others.

Uddhav’s resignation

On June 28, Fadnavis met Governor Koshyari and requested that a floor test be held. In a letter sent to Uddhav a day later, Koshyari referred to media reports that 39 Shiv Sena MLAs had expressed a desire to exit the MVA government. He also said that the Raj Bhavan had received an email from seven Independent MLAs stating that Uddhav had lost the confidence of the majority in the House.

Therefore, the letter said, a session of the Maharashtra Assembly would be summoned on June 30, “with the only agenda of a trust vote against the Chief Minister”.

After that, a floor test was ordered to establish the veracity of rebel leader Shinde’s claim that his faction had the support of more than 50 MLAs in the House.

Meanwhile, the Uddhav faction of the Shiv Sena went to the top court against the Governor’s direction for a floor test. The rebel Shinde faction also joined the courtroom battle, pressing for an immediate floor test.

A day before the floor test was due, the Court decided not to stay it. Shortly after, Uddhav resigned as CM.

Shinde was sworn in as the new CM the following day. Fadnavis agreed to become the Deputy Chief Minister, after initial reluctance.

In his speech, Shinde said the 40 Sena MLAs with him and other Independents made a total of 50 MLAs and they together “will take forward the thoughts and Hindutva ideology” of Balasaheb Thackeray and Anand Dighe, his guru.

The EC ruling

Putting official seal on the Sena split, the Election Commission ordered on February 17 this year that the Shiv Sena faction led by Shinde was the real Shiv Sena, as opposed to the group led by Uddhav. It said the party name and symbol of ‘Bow and Arrow’ would be retained by the Shinde group.

The three-member Commission relied on the test of majority, which the Shinde faction was able to prove, that it had with the support of 40 of the 67 Sena MLAs and MLCs in Maharashtra, and 13 out of 22 MPs in both Houses of Parliament.

The EC said the 40 MLAs of the Shinde group had got 76% of the votes polled by the Shiv Sena MLAs in the 2019 elections, as opposed to 23.5% for the MLAs in the Thackeray camp.

The case before the Supreme Court

The Uddhav side contends that since the 16 MLAs were disqualified by the Deputy Speaker, the MVA continued to enjoy a majority, and the Governor was wrong in calling for a floor test. And hence, the whole sequence of events that followed should not have happened.

The Supreme Court will decide whether that was the case. In its observations, the Court has noted that Uddhav, however, had not waited for a floor test and resigned on his own. Now, even if the Court disqualifies the 16 MLAs, the remaining Sena legislators with Shinde and BJP together have enough numbers to continue in government. The BJP would have 105, the Sena would be reduced to 24. There are also 10 Independents supporting the government. If 16 are disqualified, the overall tally of the Assembly would come down to 272, reducing the necessary half way mark to 137.

The Assembly polls, meanwhile, are due next year.