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Journalism of Courage
Rajasthan votes Saturday in an election that has gone down to the wire, with the BJP confident about its campaign targeting the Congress government on law and order and “appeasement politics”, and the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress banking heavily on the popularity of his government’s welfare schemes.
Both sides also expect that the divide might ultimately be cleaved along urban-rural lines, with the BJP holding on to its urban lead and the Congress benefiting from its schemes in villages.
What has added an extra edge to this is Rajasthan’s recent history of always voting out the incumbent.
The two people for whom these elections will be defining for their political futures are Gehlot, 72, whom the party has already tried to steer out as CM once, and Vasundhara Raje, 70, who could not get the nod as BJP CM face despite trying her best. A wary Raje has kept her cards close to her chest and not given any interview in months.
Ironically, while a comfortable victory will mean the Congress would not be able to deny Gehlot the CM post, notwithstanding Sachin Pilot, a comfortable victory for the BJP might translate into the party high command having its way in easing out Raje.
Of the state’s total 200 Assembly seats, polling will be held in 199, after the Congress candidate from Karanpur passed away.
If Gehlot, Raje and Pilot are expected to sail through, some prominent faces are facing a tough challenge from their opponents, including Assembly Speaker and Congress veteran C P Joshi (Nathdwara); Congress state president Govind Singh Dotasra (Laxmangarh); and Leader of Opposition Rajendra Rathore (Taranagar).
After the Congress and BJP, the BSP, which won 6 seats last time but saw all its MLAs move to the Congress, has fielded the most candidates at 185. The Aam Aadmi Party has 86 candidates, but is not expected to make an impact.
The major tie-up this poll season is between the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Azad Samaj Party, hoping for a Jat-SC combination. The RLP has fielded 78 candidates, and the ASP 46. The AIMIM has 10 candidates in the fray.
Despite intra-party tensions on both sides, the BJP and Congress managed to more or less project a united face. The BJP accommodated many of Raje’s supporters in its second list, while on Friday – a day before polling – Gehlot shared a video message of Pilot appealing to people to vote for the Congress.
There was another last-day message by Gehlot, with even the Congress privately worried about the high anti-incumbency against its MLAs, even if the CM remains largely popular. If Gehlot has previously appealed to voters to consider him as the candidate in all the seats when they cast their ballot, on Friday, he played the ‘son of the soil’ card, saying two “Gujaratis” are touring the state but the people should vote for him as he is a “Rajasthani”.
In the last stretch, the BJP which consistently brought up incidents of crime as well as incidents such as Udaipur tailor Kanhaiya Lal’s killing and the riots under the Gehlot government, as well as talked about the Ram temple, dealt another card: it appealed directly to Gujjar voters, reminding them about their leader Sachin Pilot’s “fate” in the Congress.
Caste remains a crucial issue, says Prof Ram Lakhan Meena, a candidate of the Bhim Army in Hindoli, in Bundi district, who says he disagrees with welfare politics as a stand-in for it. “They are spending public money to earn goodwill. This concept is very harmful for Indian democracy,” he says, adding that the Hindoli seat has seen little by way of development.
Most of his young supporters say that given the situation, they look above all at a candidate’s caste.
In the nearby Bundi constituency – won by the BJP’s Ashok Dogara since 2008 – and housing the Bundi Fort, there is more of a yearning for “development”.
In neighbouring Kota too, the Lok Sabha constituency of Speaker Om Birla, where Gehlot’s trusted lieutenant Shanti Dhariwal is contesting from Kota North against Raje aide Prahlad Gunjal, development is a buzzword.
Kota city has got a facelift due to the Chambal Riverfront and other beatification projects, and locals credit it to “Om-Shanti (Om Birla and Shanti Dhariwal)”.
However, the BJP’s campaign of corruption against the Congress seems to be getting some traction here. Giridhari Lal Gaur, who lives metres from the riverfront project, says Dhariwal may pay the price for this, adding: “The BJP’s main advantage is Modiji. People here still chant ‘Wah re mara Modi’.”
In the Kota main town, this liking for Modi segues into a Hindutva sentiment. “Musalmanoon ka raj nahin chahiye (We don’t want the reign of Muslims),” says Ashok, who runs a textile shop in the centre of Kota town.
In Mewar, known to be the bellwether region that decides which party will form the government, the uncertainty about what will transpire on December 3 result day is tangible. At play are complex caste equations, the presence of rebel candidates and the rise of the newly formed Bharatiya Adivasi Party.
Largely, upper castes and a section of OBCs appear to be rooting for the BJP, while large sections of Dalits, OBCs, northern Mewar tribals and Muslims appear to favour the Congress.
Neither the Kanhaiya Lal murder, which PM Modi raised in the region, nor Rahul Gandhi-led Congress push for a caste census has much resonance on the ground.
What is constant is the popularity of Modi. While voters may be divided on their choice come November 25, they add: “Modiji desh ke liye thik hain. Unke naam pe 2024 mein vote padega (Modiji is right for the country. The 2024 vote will be in his name).”
