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A month after the CPI(M)-led LDF suffered a severe drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, the party’s central leadership has identified the “erosion” of a section of its vote base in favour of the BJP as one of the most serious issues facing it. The Left failed to pay “sufficient attention” to this, a review of the Lok Sabha results by the CPI(M)’s Central Committee says.
The report also blames “arrogant behaviour” of cadres from “top to bottom” as well as corruption at all levels, saying these were “alienating” the people from the organisation. The Central Committee, the highest decision-making body of the CPI(M), met over the last weekend to consider reports compiled by the party’s state units on the 18th Lok Sabha elections.
In 2021, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) had created history by returning to power in Kerala under the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, bucking the trend of the state changing governments every five years. However, three years hence, the second successive drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections has added to the growing discontent over Vijayan’s leadership, which has been marked by allegations of authoritarianism and corruption, with the Congress seen as on the upswing and the BJP making inroads into the state.
Like 2019, the Left won one seat in Kerala in the Lok Sabha polls, Alathur (CPM), with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) winning 18. The Left’s score was the same as the BJP’s, which picked up its first-ever Lok Sabha seat in Kerala. The CPI(M)’s pre-poll assessment, calculations and claims were proved completely wrong.
Pointing out the “wide gap” between the estimates and the actual results, the CPI(M) review calls it a “bigger problem”. “This shows that Party units were unable to gauge the mood of the people and their preferences. The weakening of the Party’s live links with people has to be corrected.”
Talking of “instances of arrogant behaviour of cadres – from top to bottom”, the review says this is pushing people away. “The importance of rectification to eliminate wrong trends and behaviour must be undertaken in a planned manner.”
The report also calls for a strict check on “growing instances of corruption in panchayats, cooperative institutions and at various levels”.
However, it is the growth of the BJP that has the CPI(M) most worried. The BJP did not just win the Thrissur seat, where popular actor-politician Suresh Gopi was its candidate, but finished first in 11 Assembly segments across the state and second in eight. Assembly elections in the state are two years away. Meanwhile, Gopi has been inducted by the BJP as a Union Minister of State.
The CPI(M) review says: “The BJP/NDA have polled 19.2 per cent of the votes, which is an increase of 3.64 per cent compared to 2019. It should be noted that the BJP/NDA vote share has almost doubled over the last ten years – from 10.08 per cent in 2014 to 19.2 per cent in 2024.”
The LDF vote share, on the other hand, came down to 33.35 per cent from 35.10 per cent in 2019, about the same as the dip in the UDF’s vote share (by 2.8 per cent).
The CPI(M) review admits that a considerable section of the people, particularly the minorities, saw that only the Congress, as the largest party in the INDIA bloc, could defeat the BJP at the Centre. “The Left was not seen by them as a major player in the defeat of the BJP and the formation of an alternative government,” it says. (The Left is a part of the INDIA bloc outside Kerala.)
The report adds: “A disturbing feature of the election results is the erosion of our traditional base in several constituencies to the BJP. While the main reason for the success of the BJP in Thrissur is the vote it got from the Congress base and a section of the Christians, it is a fact that some of our voting base has gone to the BJP in several places. This is particularly so in constituencies like Attingal and Alappuzha. In the former, we lost narrowly by 684 votes and in the latter, the BJP has come close to our vote share. Hindu sentiments and caste influence have affected our vote base to some extent in other seats also.”
The party further says: “The BJP-RSS work to advance Hindutva politics has shown results. They have been using temples, religious and social activities as a means to propagate their Hindutva and anti-minority politics. They have been using various Central schemes which convey benefits to penetrate selected caste groups. Self-critically, it must be noted that we have not paid sufficient attention to counter their politics and activities. This must be taken up on a priority basis.”
On other “caste and communal organisations” that played a big role, the CPI(M) report talks of the Ezhava outfit SNDP working largely in favour of the BJP, and the Jamaat-e-Islami and SDPI, combined with the Muslim League, sticking with the Congress. A section of the Christian Church establishment, it says, also tilted in favour of the BJP. “The BJP has utilized the growing anti-Muslim sentiments within the Church and also adopted a carrot and stick policy to woo Church leaders. The support extended to the BJP candidate in Thrissur is an illustration.”
This observation is likely to add to the chorus against Vijayan as, under him, the CPI(M) has made aggressive overtures to woo the minorities, particularly the Muslims. The CPI(M), in fact, ran its campaign around the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, playing on Muslim apprehensions regarding the legislation.
Lastly, the CPI(M) review talks about the party’s social media campaign trailing both the UDF and BJP’s by far. “Urgent steps have to be taken to expand the coverage through social media at all levels and strengthen content generation.”
