© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
Tags:
Journalism of Courage
One of the key takeaways from the Karnataka polls is that a slew of social engineering measures undertaken by the BJP government in the state on the eve of the elections yielded little or no results, and even boomeranged on the BJP.
The Basavaraj Bommai government had announced a series of changes in reservation quotas for various communities – these included a 2% hike in reservations for Scheduled Castes (SCs), a 4% hike in reservations for Scheduled Tribes (STs), removal of a 4% quota for OBC Muslims under the OBC category and redistribution of 2% each to the dominant Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities.
The BJP also fixed internal quotas within the 17% quota for the SCs, at 6% for the SC Left (most backward), 5.5% for the SC Right (less backward), 4.5% for the “touchables” and 1% for the others.
An analysis of the seats won by candidates from various castes reveals that the BJP’s social engineering had little effect on the poll outcome, where bread and butter issues like the cost of living were dominant. The Congress registered a resounding win in the elections with 135 seats, while the BJP slumped to 66 from 118 in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly.
One of the telling facts from the results is that the BJP won only 26% (18 seats) of the 68 seats where it fielded Lingayat candidates, including 29% (7 seats) of the 27 seats where it fielded candidates from the Panchamasali sub-sect of the Lingayats. This is despite increasing the quota for the Lingayats, and despite being seen as the party that had the loyalty of the community.
The Congress, on the other hand, won 77% (37 seats) of the 48 seats where it fielded Lingayat candidates, including 71% (10 seats) of the 14 allotted to Panchamasali Lingayats.
“The voters seem to have seen through the fact that there was insufficient legal basis for the quota changes made by the BJP on the eve of the elections, and decided to ignore these during the polls, despite the BJP push on the issue,” a government official said.
The BJP had acted almost unilaterally in withdrawing the 4% reservation for Muslims under the Other Backward Classes quota (by claiming that religion based reservations were not permissible under the Constitution) to distribute 2% each among the Lingayats and Vokkaligas.
The move was seen as an attempt to appease the Panchamasali Lingayats, who had been agitating for nearly two years demanding 15% quota under the OBC II A category instead of a special OBC III B category, with 5% reservations. The 2% hike in reservation for Lingayats, from 5% to 7% under a new II D category, and for the Vokkaligas from 4% to 6% was done by the BJP in the hope that this would win the party the support of all Lingayats sub-sects and Vokkaligas.
The Vokkaligas too were not impressed. The BJP won only 23% (10 seats) of the 43 seats where it fielded Vokkaliga candidates – basically in the Vokkaliga heartland in south Karnataka. The Congress registered a 49% success rate, with 21 of its 43 Vokkaliga candidates winning.
In what is seen as a fallout of the BJP decision to withdraw the 4% quota for Muslims, the Congress won 60% (9 of the 15 seats) where it fielded Muslims. The Congress also won 40 of the 65 seats with Muslim population in excess of 35,000.
The BJP did not field any Muslim candidate.
“There was a consolidation of Muslim votes in all constituencies primarily in favour of the Congress, and in some places for the strongest non-BJP candidate. This is a return to an old way of voting by Muslims, which had changed for a while due to multiple parties seeking Muslim votes,” a state official said.
The BJP’s best success rate was in seats where it fielded Brahmins or OBC Bunt and Billava candidates – in Bengaluru and the coastal Karnataka region. The BJP won 61% (8 of 13 seats) where it fielded Brahmins and 80% (8 of 10 seats) where it put up Bunt or Billava candidates.
Among STs, the BJP had no success, winning none of the 15 seats reserved for STs. The Congress won 14 of these.
In 2018, the BJP had won 46% of the ST seats and was hoping to maximise this following a 4% hike in ST quotas in the state from 3% to 7%.
Another key caste category where the BJP’s quota jugglery paid no real dividends is SCs. The BJP won only 33% (12 of the 36 seats) reserved for SC candidates, compared to the Congress success rate of 58% (21 of 36). The BJP drew a blank in one of the sub-categories of Dalits – the SC Right — despite fielding eight candidates belonging to it. The Congress won 71% (10 out of 14) of the seats where it fielded SC Right candidates.
The BJP effort to provide a higher share of quotas within the 17% SC quota for the most backward SC Left community also failed to yield results, with the party winning only 33% of the seats (4 of 12) where SC Left candidates were fielded. In contrast, 60% (6 of 10) of the Congress candidates fielded from this caste category won.
The BJP however won more seats (47%) where it fielded candidates from the “touchable” SC category, like Lambanis and Bhovis, compared to the Congress (40%). The BJP fielded 17 candidates from these two communities, with eight winning, while the Congress fielded 10, of whom four won.
Among the Kurubas, one of the key OBC groups in Karnataka, to which Congress chief minister designate Siddaramaiah belongs, the Congress success rate was much higher. The BJP won 29% of seats with Kuruba candidates (2 of 7), while the Congress got 67% of them (10 of 15 seats).
