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Despite strong reservations within sections of right-wing organisations in Maharashtra, the BJP has decided to continue its alliance with the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis firmly conveyed this decision to the RSS at a coordination meeting held in Nagpur Sunday.
Over the past two months, Fadnavis has engaged with RSS leaders to discuss polls and politics three times in Nagpur and Mumbai.
Officially, the BJP has said it will contest the 2024 Assembly polls as part of the ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, NCP and the CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. But the BJP has taken a leadership role in the alliance’s poll preparations and the party’s state core committee delegated all decision-making powers on seat-sharing to Fadnavis after a meeting in Mumbai on Sunday.
With the alliance in place, the next challenge for the BJP is negotiating seat-sharing with its partners for elections to Maharashtra’s 288 Assembly seats, scheduled to be held in October-November.
Over their long years as allies, the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP, with their common Hindutva ideology, had arrived at seat-sharing through mutual consensus.
However, the BJP and NCP, which are now contesting as allies, have traditionally been rivals. In the 2019 Assembly polls, they were locked in direct contests in 54 Assembly seats dotted across Maharashtra. Of these 54 seats, the BJP won 30 and the undivided NCP 24. Following the split in the NCP in July 2023, 18 of these NCP MLAs pledged their loyalty to Ajit Pawar and six to Sharad Pawar’s faction.
“The BJP’s traditional rival has been the Congress-NCP (undivided)… Fifty-four constituencies over decades have seen them bitterly fight each other,” a senior BJP functionary said, pointing out that the party now faces the daunting task of convincing its reluctant grassroots workers to accept the NCP as a partner.
Citing examples, party insiders said: “In the Indapur Assembly constituency, sitting MLA Dattatrey Bharne belongs to the NCP. But senior BJP leader Harshvardhan Patil, who contested the last election and lost by a narrow margin of 3,110 votes, is asserting his right to the seat. In the Daund constituency, the BJP’s Rahul Kul won the seat, while the NCP’s Ramesh Thorat missed out by a margin of 746 votes. In such seats, both sides are going to fight for their rights.”
Ajit Pawar, who embarked on a state-wide yatra starting August 8, made it clear that the NCP would drive a hard bargain. “Generally, parties retain sitting MLAs’ seats. In the remaining, there are negotiations after taking other factors into consideration.”
Officially, state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule exuded confidence. “Since we have agreed to contest elections together, the seat division would be resolved through discussions at top levels. In any election, every party tries to enhance its electoral fortunes and strives for hard bargains. In the end, we have to adopt a pragmatic approach to ensure allies are not antagonised and also see to it that our own party’s status and stature remains uncompromising,” Bawankule said.
Together, the Mahayuti allies have 187 MLAs in the current House. For the remaining 101 Assembly seats, the partners are expected to engage in tough negotiations to each extract their pound of flesh. “Every party will be allowed to retain its sitting seat. Constituencies where a party is second will be considered. Thirdly, winnability along with organisational base will be criteria to determine the seat sharing formula,” the BJP’s poll strategists said.
In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP won 105 seats and polled 25.75% of the total votes. The undivided Shiv Sena, then a pre-poll ally of the BJP, won 56 seats with a 16.41% vote share.
The undivided NCP won 54 seats with a 16.71% vote share, while its ally the Congress won 44 seats with a 15.97% vote share. After the NCP split, 42 MLAs sided with Ajit Pawar, leaving just 12 in Sharad Pawar’s faction.
