With only 68 seats, Himachal Pradesh, where assembly elections have been announced for November 12, is a small state. But the outcome is likely to resonate beyond the state’s borders. The Himachal election marks the beginning of a crowded poll calender that will culminate in the 2024 general election. Elections are due in Gujarat next, which will be followed by assembly polls to at least nine states, among them Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana, over a year. In most of these states, as in Himachal, the main contenders are the BJP and Congress, and the results in the hill state may have a bearing on electoral fortunes elsewhere.
Himachal Pradesh has been, more or less, a two-party state since its formation in 1971: Since the 1990s, the Congress and BJP have alternated in office. The entry of the AAP carried the promise of making the contest triangular but, after several defections, the party appears to have retreated. Party chief Arvind Kejriwal’s travel schedule suggests that the AAP is more invested in Gujarat than in Himachal Pradesh. As for Congress, it desperately needs to win Himachal, having lost both Punjab and Uttarakhand earlier this year. The party may be enthused by the fact that it has won four bypolls — three to the assembly and one to Parliament — a year ago. However, it has been unable to project a leader as its face in the state since the demise of Virbhadra Singh, who was chief minister for 21 years. Congress seems to be banking on anti-incumbency, economic turmoil that got exacerbated during the Covid pandemic when the tourism industry, a major job and revenue provider, was badly hit. It is also attempting to win over government employees by promising a return to the old pension scheme, a populist proposal that can hurt state finances. The BJP, on the other hand, appears to be falling back on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his slogan of “double-engine ki sarkar” rather than on its local leadership, a strategy that paid it dividends in Uttarakhand. Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, who was pitchforked into office because Prem Kumar Dhumal lost his seat, has been non-controversial but low-profile.
The Himachal election will be an important test for both the BJP and Congress ahead of the parliamentary face-off in 2024. The result will be keenly watched and will lay the ground for the political competition to follow.
