After winning the Liberal Party leadership race, Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s new Prime Minister on March 14. This has opened the possibility of improvements in India-Canada relations. Carney has replaced Justin Trudeau, who resigned this January amidst Trump’s tariff threats and his claims to make Canada the 51st state of the US.
Carney is holding this position as an unelected candidate. He will soon, almost certainly, call an early federal election, which is otherwise due in October.
Carney’s victory has increased the chances of the Liberal Party coming back to power in the upcoming elections, which was otherwise trailing far behind the Conservative Party in various surveys and polls. While the US tariff threats were a central issue in the Liberal leadership race, clean energy, climate policies, and economic prosperity for Canada were also the major tenets of Carney’s leadership campaign. These are some fronts where India and Canada can have convergences. Addressing the press a couple of days before his victory, Carney said that he would diversify Canada’s trade relationships by mending ties with “like-minded partners” like India. This is a good sign for India. By visiting France and then the UK (instead of the US) on his first foreign visit after taking office, Carney has exhibited a will to go beyond the traditional norms in the challenging times that Canada is in.
However, even if the Liberal Party under Carney loses the election, Canadian leaders across the board most likely recognise that rebuilding relations with India is crucial for Canada, especially when their greatest ally and neighbour is exhibiting economic, strategic, and political belligerence. The Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is also expected to take a pragmatic approach towards India should he win the federal elections.
Neither Canadians nor Indians want the bilateral ties to deteriorate. This is evident from the fact that despite the diplomatic fallout over the last year, the bilateral trade volume has continued to grow, and so has the number of migrants from India to Canada. The only factor blocking the flourishing of India-Canada relations was Trudeau’s foreign policy towards India, which was heavily informed by domestic politics wherein Sikh extremists hold significant influence. Not only was Trudeau influenced by an anti-India Khalistani lobby in his government, but his last term in the government depended on the support from Jagmeet Singh’s National Democratic Party.
With Trudeau out of office, there is hope that the influence of extremist Sikh elements in the India-Canada relations will dissipate. The upcoming administration in Canada is likely to focus on cooperation based on mutual interests. Sources suggest that the Ministry of External Affairs is already considering restoring the Indian High Commissioner to Canada. However, since the foreign policy of any country is a culmination of continuity and change, India cannot expect a radical shift in the Liberal Party’s foreign policy towards India. Carney, who is untested in politics, will rely on much of the same party machinery that worked behind the Trudeau administration. Given his background in economics, he might focus more on prioritising the Canadian economy before focusing on foreign policy.
If the upcoming administration achieves a stable and forward-looking government, India and Canada can restart the negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) which can take bilateral economic relations to new heights. Besides having immense trade potential in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, agri-tech, and energy, India and Canada are crucial for each other’s security dynamics as well. In 2022, Canada listed India as a critical partner in the region in its Indo-Pacific Policy document. Both share a common view of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific and recognise China as an increasingly disruptive global player. They can collaborate, in the region and beyond, bilaterally and multilaterally, on international issues such as climate change mitigation, green energy transition, maritime domain awareness, development finance, etc. India and Canada, therefore,
can build on these strengths to shape a
long-lasting relationship.
The writer is assistant professor, Centre for Canadian, US & Latin American Studies, School of International Studies, JNU.
