At the Hiroshima Summit 2023, the G7 nations stressed that the peak for global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions should be reached by 2025. They also committed to an “Acceleration Agenda” for G7 countries to reach net-zero emissions by around 2040 and urged emerging economies to do so by around 2050. China has committed to net zero by 2060 and India by 2070.
However, emerging trends in climate change may not give humanity the luxury of being too late. Severe costs are likely to be inflicted in terms of human lives and livelihoods, especially for those working in the agriculture sector, with every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature compared to pre-industrial levels. India has the largest workforce (45.6 per cent in 2021-22) engaged in agriculture amongst G20 countries. The impact of climate change may be disproportionate for India.
There is renewed urgency in this matter as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that global near-surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1°C to 1.8°C annually from 2023 to 2027. It also anticipates that temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year within this period. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India experienced its fifth hottest year on record in 2022..
Against this backdrop, that Indian agriculture faces a double whammy. Not only does it have to feed the largest population (1.42 billion in 2023 and likely to be 1.67 billion by 2050), it has to do so while contending with the increasing vagaries of nature. While India’s grain production (330MT in 2022-23) gives some comfort, the nutritional challenge remains.
What can Indian policymakers do? The probable answer lies in focusing on agricultural research, development, education and extension (ARDE). Research at ICRIER indicates that investing in agri-R&D yields much greater returns (11.2) compared to every rupee spent on say the fertiliser subsidy (0.88), power subsidy (0.79), education (0.97), or roads (1.10). Thus, increased emphasis on ARDE can help achieve higher agricultural production even in the face of climate change.
ARDE is critical for improving resource use efficiency, especially for natural resources such as soil, water, and air. The development of seeds that are more heat resistant is already a reality. Precision agriculture, such as drip irrigation, can result in large water savings. Implementing sensor-based irrigation systems, for example, enables automated control, improving resource use efficiency. Fertigation and development of nano-fertilisers can not only save on the fertiliser subsidy but also reduce its carbon footprint. Implementing such innovative farming practices and/or products will help more efficient use of water and other natural resources, resulting in higher output with fewer inputs, while lowering GHG emissions. Research at the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) shows that mulching not only contributes to higher soil organic carbon (SOC) but also saves on water and reduces GHG emissions.
Scaling up such experiments is critical and that’s where one needs larger allocations of funds. Our analysis of ARDE since 2005-06 reveals that although in absolute terms, the total expenditure has increased from Rs 39.6 billion ($0.91 billion) in the triennium ending (TE) in 2008 to Rs 163 billion ($2.2 billion) in the TE 2020, the research intensity (RI) (ARDE as a percentage of agri-GDP) has experienced an upswing from 0.55 per cent in 2005-06 to its peak of 0.70 per cent in 2010-11, before declining to 0.48 per cent in 2019-20.
When examining the allocation of ARDE by sector, it becomes evident that there is a skewed distribution towards the crop husbandry sector, whose relative share has marginally increased from 75 per cent to 76 per cent between TE 2008 and TE 2020. In contrast, the shares for soil, water conservation, and forestry have declined from 5 per cent to 2 per cent. The shares for animal husbandry, dairy development, and fisheries sectors have decreased from 11 per cent to 8 per cent, despite the value of livestock having substantially increased in the overall value of agri-produce. This imbalance needs urgent correction, especially because much (54 per cent) of the GHG emissions within agriculture come from the livestock sector.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge that despite the expenditure on ARDE, the overall RI in agriculture falls short of the target of “1 per cent of the agricultural gross value added (AGVA)” recommended by the Government of India’s as well as the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). To accomplish this, India needs to almost double its budgetary allocations for ARDE. In this context, if the Union government can reduce its fertiliser subsidy, and state governments their power subsidy, and redirect those savings to agri-R&D, ensuring research intensity to be at least 1 per cent, the results would be much better in terms of food and nutritional security in the face of climate change. But this requires political courage and innovative policies that ensure farmers incomes go up during this re-alignment phase.
Along with the substantial increase in the budgets for ARDE, one needs to realign not just expenditures but also policies (such as fertiliser subsidy, power subsidy, etc) towards meeting the climate change challenge. Livestock has been growing at more than double the rate of the cereal sector, as is horticulture. But our policies and programmes are stuck with the legacy of basic staples like rice and wheat. This needs to change to give us better nutrition and less GHG emissions.
Gulati is Distinguished Professor and Thangaraj a Research Associate at ICRIER. Views are personal
