Why the nuclear deal is in danger

Why the two are seemingly irreconcilable

What and when are the next steps in the deal

• Negotiations for a safeguards agreement with IAEA must end before November 22 meeting of the IAEA’s board of governors

• With Board approval, before year-end, US goes to 46-member NSG on India’s behalf seeking unconditional exemption

• After NSG waiver, between Jan and Feb, Bush sends 123 agreement back to US Congress for up and down vote

In other words: If current tension hadn’t been there, deal signed, sealed anytime between Jan and March 2008

If Left withdraws support but allows Govt to stay as minority

• PM can continue with the process (explained above); dilemma moral and political: unlikely that UPA will be at Left’s mercy every day

• Also, weak govt in Delhi gives leverage to those NSG members, like China, who are not warm to the deal

If UPA falls

Election mode, caretaker govt unlikely to push deal which goes in cold storage

Can the deal be revived after elections?

Yes, but UPA has to come back to power with enough numbers minus the Left, Bush has to take agreement back to his Congress. New Hampshire primary, which signals start of US poll process, scheduled for Jan 8-Jan 15.

If non-UPA govt comes to power, given the stated position of each party, nuclear deal will be re-opened.Which means India will tell US that Hyde Act is unacceptable. Given the opposition Bush has had to face to get this deal through, any “better deal” means the US President has to be a very very special friend