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‘India’s savings in equity to cross $50 bn’

India's savings in shares and debentures are expected to exceed $50 bn by 2020 from $13 bn in 2008...

India’s savings in shares and debentures are expected to exceed USD 50 billion by 2020 from USD 13 billion in 2008,a research study said.

“The country’s savings in equities are expected to touch USD 25 billion in 2015 and USD 54 billion in 2020 from a mere USD 13 billion in 2008,” Enam Securities Institutional Equity Research Managing Director Nandan Chakraborty said during a media interaction on its “India 2015” report.

The pool of financial savings is also expected to double to USD 273 billion in 2015 and USD 539 billion in 2020,Chakraborty said,adding that the GDP is expected to grow to USD 2.9 trillion in 2015 and USD 5.8 trillion in 2020.

Following the implementation of Direct Taxes Code (DTC) and GST,the government’s revenue is expected to go up by USD 87 billion by 2015. DTC and GST are expected to add USD 35 billion and removal of other exemptions to add USD 29 billion to the government’s revenue kitty,Chakraborty said.

The non-tax revenue of the government is estimated at USD 23 billion. The divestment in FY’11 will generate USD 9 billion and another USD 3 billion would be generated through divestment in subsequent years. The coal auctions would be potentially much larger than USD 20 billion.

In 2015,India’s market cap will be at USD 2.6 trillion,making it the fifth largest in the world. Similarly,with its GDP at USD 2.9-trillion,India would be world’s eighth largest and fastest-growing economy in 2015,the report said.

It said that with private consumption at USD 1.7 trillion,India is the fastest-growing consumer market in the world. Indians buy 4.7-million cars per annum which is larger than that of Japan.

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Commenting on adverse impacts,the report said that choking infrastructure continues to remain a major issue.

Railways would remain severely choked and ports,airports and power,despite massive scaling-up will remain near choking.

The movement of commodities would remain difficult due to inadequate rail infrastructure,the report said.

On energy security,the report pointed out that despite KG-D6 and further blocks through New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP),India and China’s demand could lead to global crude prices sky-rocketing,rocking the country’s financial stability (balance of payments).

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“We would yet have to make significant progress in global energy acquisitions as China has and on power too,we would remain in deficit even in 2015,” it said.

Tags:
  • Direct Taxes Code DTC Indian equities NELP
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