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Journalism of Courage
The one outcome the nation does not need in March 1998 is the re-emergence of three blocs of parties none of which can form a government on its own or combine with another to form a majority in the Lok Sabha. But that looks, unfortunately, like a foregone conclusion since there has been no evidence of major shifts in voter preferences in the last 18 months. So, unless political party realignments occur, it is back to the three-cornered stalemate. India, in V P Singh’s well-worn phrase, is itself a coalition. That leaves it to political parties to find ways of coalescing. They are being exhorted from various sides to form pre-poll alliances in the hope this will impart some solidity to relationships. Although such an arrangement has worked, for example, for the BJP and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, it did not in the BJP-BSP case in UP. In any event, accretions of strength in terms of mere numbers is unlikely to be as workable as alignments based on some common interests.
All parties are more or less committed to continuing economic reforms. The issues at the election will be political: stability, secularism and corruption. It is here that the campaign stances the three blocs are groping towards could be crucial. Ayodhya continues to be a dilemma for the BJP as it searches for a stance which will allow it to moderate Hindutva and enlarge its appeal without losing core supporters. L. K. Advani has advanced what he hopes Muslims will regard as a realistic, deliverable one-shrine-for-two deal. Apparently the risk here of alienating some without winning over others is considered small. Some leaders also express confidence that the BJP’s untouchable status is a thing of the past, the proof being the 21 Congressmen who crossed sides in UP. But challenging the UF and Congress definition of secularism is not sufficient for regional alliances in the southern States where the BJP most needs them or to build bridges to the dalits everywhere. It may be left by and large with having to explore the same Congress turf as it has in the last week.
Pre-poll alliances are essential to reinforce the latter-day unity seen in the United Front. A stable government at the Centre is the need of the hour and the UF has little hope of being taken seriously as a credible option if it does not go to the polls as a stable formation. The hard work of thrashing out an acceptable common platform has already been done. The harder task of putting in place an organisational structure and a united leadership remains. Nor is there much time. For the Congress party under Sitaram Kesri, it is a crisis of identity and unless that is resolved soon it will be ripe for plunder even before the elections are underway. It cannot now expect either secularism or stability to work their charms again with voters or potential allies. Corruption is a word it dare not mention. In this bleak scenario it can turn helplessly to `Madam’ or take the sensible course and find a modus vivendi with the UF.
