Because the people want it

The spokesman must reflect on a question: does a loaded suggestion of this nature go down well with public opinion on the sub-continent? Or does it simply satisfy hawks in the Pakistani establishment and provoke those on the other side of the border? By all means be clever. But remember, the purpose of the exercise is to win hearts and minds, soften the atmosphere. Only then can discussions, even negotiations, begin on Kashmir.

Heaven knows New Delhi has made horrendous mistakes in Kashmir and Indian spokesmen too have flailed their arms. But ever since Prime Minister Vajpayee launched the peace initiative on April 18 in Srinagar, his purpose has been to work towards a harmonious sub continent, step by step, in Kashmir and on the Indo-Pak track, without ever obviating that eventual dialogue on the all important issue which Pakistan insists must happen at the very outset. Pakistan wants a composite dialogue, something New Delhi was insisting on at one stage. It is possible even now provided Pakistan demonstrably establishes that terrorism across the LoC has stopped. This certificate is not available to Islamabad even from its friendliest interlocuters in the west.

As happens in democracies, an incantation or mantra over time circumscribes the government’s capacity to act. So it becomes impossible for the prime minister (possibly against his own instincts) to resile from a stand on which public opinion has been mobilised: dialogue isn’t possible unless ‘‘cross-border terrorism” stops. Certainly not on the eve of crucial polls.

It is speculated that the Americans have exerted pressure to extract the 12 suggestions from India. The Diwali initiative has taken all diplomats completely by surprise. A senior European diplomat came closest to guessing that “something was cooking” when he knocked on all doors at the MEA and received the same response: “the officer is in a meeting”. This was October 22, the day External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha made the announcement.

Pakistani diplomats are a trifle hurt that New Delhi bypassed them and announced the proposals to the media. They may have a point but Indian officials cite Musharraf’s televised breakfast meeting with Indian editors at Agra and, more recently, his declarations during the visit of Laloo Prasad Yadav and 32 other MPs to Lahore in front of live cameras.

There is a view in New Delhi that at this stage of the Indo-Pak script there is no alternative to public diplomacy — to reach out to the establishment in full view of the people who have demonstrated overwhelming support for increased interaction at all levels. This is true of people in both countries. For evidence, just replay tapes of Laloo’s visit to Lahore, Baby Noor’s return to Pakistan, the reception for a 120 member delegation of Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and so on.

Admittedly, diplomacy in the open is risk prone. India suggested November 3 and 4 or November 10 and 11 for civil aviation talks. The dates did not suit Islamabad because of Ramadan, although arrangements for prayers and fasting are commonplace in New Delhi. New Delhi then suggested December 1 and 2. A Lahore newspaper screamed: Pakistan rejects India’s offer for air link talks. This created the impression that someone in the Pak foreign office had “leaked the rejection”. But when Pakistan accepted the December dates, the knee jerk reaction in New Delhi to the news item was found to be based on mischievous reporting. Likewise the Pakistani spokesman’s complaint that someone in authority had described the twelve proposals as a “tactical” ploy was, in effect, the spokesman reacting to an unsourced news item.

The proposals and the response must be seen against the larger backdrop. Vajpayee’s initiatives follow a series of positive developments. The strategic partnership with the US is on course. This is without prejudice to relations with Russia and Europe. Trade with China along with broad spectrum political ties have crossed milestones. The Look East policy is bearing fruit. After the SAARC summit a new economic quadrangle will envelop Myanmar. US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage’s October 28 statement paving the way for a new relationship with Iran is vindication of India’s stand: the US-Iran equation must normalise for regional security and for stabilising Iraq. Open skies with Sri Lanka are success stories.

The picture from Islamabad looks different even though the US state department softens things for Musharraf by casting him as heroic ally despite, ironically, the difficulties they heap upon him: Dawood, nuclear help to North Korea, links of Taliban remnants with the Pak Army. Add to this the Legal Framework order, Shia-Sunni divisions and his plate looks so full of problems that Americans flinch from pushing him a little harder on stopping India related terrorism.

Musharraf, of course, calculates that the Americans, upto their ears in Iraq, must show something resembling success in Afghanistan. The Loya Jirga in Kabul in December will pave the way for elections. The international community is unlikely to rock his boat until Afghanistan is sorted out. Vajpayee, meanwhile, is in a win-win situation. If his Pak initiatives succeed, his stature as a statesman grows. Alternatively, Pakistan stands out in bold relief as obstructionist.