Modi likely to be in US next month for UNGA meet, bilateral talks with Trump

However, for this to fructify, a lot of moving parts have to fall in place.

There has to be movement on two fronts — the Russia-Ukraine war and the Indo-US trade deal.

Negotiations are underway on both fronts, and the stakes for Delhi are high since it has been slapped with 50 per cent tariffs by the US — 25 per cent for its high tariffs and 25 per cent penalty for buying Russian oil.

On the Russia-Ukraine war front, Delhi is closely following the meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 to discuss a resolution to the war in Ukraine.

Modi has already spoken to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the last few days. A resolution to the conflict is in India’s interest, sources said, and this has been conveyed to both leaders.

On the trade deal front, Indian and American negotiators had been close to sealing a deal, but the US President was not happy about the deal that was agreed between the interlocutors.

So, the negotiators have to discuss the terms of the deal further, and they have to offer new terms, as red lines have been drawn. But the two sides are focused on the new goal for bilateral trade — ‘Mission 500’ — aiming to more than double total bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.

This was decided during Modi’s visit to the White House where he met Trump in February this year. They had also agreed that to realise this ambition, they would require new, fair-trade terms, and they had announced plans to negotiate the first tranche of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall this year.

And to conclude a wide-ranging BTA, the US and India had agreed to take an integrated approach to strengthen and deepen bilateral trade across the goods and services sector, and work towards increasing market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, and deepening supply chain integration.

But that has run into rough weather. And the officials and negotiators have to unlock the issues and negotiate a deal by September last week – the Prime Minister’s visit to the US is expected to “dot the i’s and cross the t’s”, sources said.

Now, to schedule the visit, as a first step, the Indian side has reached out to the UN headquarters for a speaking slot for the Prime Minister at the UN General Assembly. As of now, that has been scheduled for September 26 morning. Trump is slated to speak on September 23.

At the UNGA, permanent missions to the UN have to indicate the level of representation from each country, and the speaking slot of 15-minutes is granted accordingly.

If the PM’s visit takes place, it will give an opportunity to speak at the UNGA and hold bilateral meetings with Trump and other world leaders. Zelenskyy also indicated Monday, after his phone call with Modi, that they “agreed to plan a personal meeting in September during the UN General Assembly”.

Sources said plans are underway since the entire process of accreditation and travel arrangements to the UN needs to be completed in August.

Ties between India and the US have been impacted in recent months after Trump claimed to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan — a claim denied by Delhi. He followed it with diatribes against India on tariffs, and imposed 50 per cent tariffs.

Sources said that since the two countries are strategic partners, they have to sort out the issues, and the PM’s visit will be to smoothen the issues, so that a visit by the US President to India can take place in October for the summit of Quad leaders.