Joint polls see high GDP growth, low inflation: Kovind committee told

The high-level committee, which was set up in September last year to suggest ways to hold simultaneous elections, is likely to submit its report to President Droupadi Murmu this week, sources said.

Simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies were held in 1951-52, 1957,1962, and 1967. However, macroeconomic data for before the 1960s was not easily available, it is learnt. The report looked at elections post 1962 and included election cycles where 40 per cent or more states went to the polls as “simultaneous” election years.

Asaduddin Owaisi presents AIMIM’s submissions to One Nation, One Election panel chairperson Ram Nath Kovind in the presence of members N K Singh and Rajiv Mani. (File photo)

Taking data of the election years — 1962, 1967, 1977, 1980, and 1984-85 — and the period of two years before and after the election year, the report found that GDP growth increased by 1.5 percentage points more from pre-election to post-election period in a simultaneous year compared to the corresponding period around a non-simultaneous year.

On the other hand, growth rates fell by about a percentage point from the period before to after non-simultaneous election years, it found.

Sources said some outside experts and economists who were consulted said a sharp increase in growth and a lowering of inflation were “bold conclusions” drawn in the report. Inflation, for instance, depends much on food prices, which do not depend on election cycles, they said. Similarly, the impact of external events may not have been taken into account while concluding that simultaneous elections was followed by a growth boost.

The report also found that public spending after simultaneous elections was higher after simultaneous elections. Capital expenditure, too, increased in the period. This could be because spending before elections, including on freebies, is higher during non-simultaneous elections, it said.

The report is believed to have found higher investments in the period around simultaneous election years compared to non-simultaneous years. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation, as a fraction of GDP, was half a percentage point higher on average of simultaneous election periods compared to non-simultaneous cycles, pointing to a less interruption in economic activity owing to multiple polls and Model Code of Conduct.

Apart from economic factors, the report also looked at the impact on educational outcomes and crime rate, since school teachers and police are deployed for election duty. In non-simultaneous election periods, enrolment in primary schools was lower by about half a percentage point compared to simultaneous election years. Using National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data from 1980 onwards, the report also found the increase in crime rate in simultaneous elections periods to be less compared to the non-simultaneous years.