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Journalism of Courage
With just about a year left for the 2024 US Presidential elections, a recent survey has said that former US President Donald Trump is leading current President Joe Biden as the choice for voters in five out of six ‘swing’ states.
These states are seen as crucial for candidates to secure a victory. In 2020, Biden won all six of them – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What explains the turn away from Biden and towards Trump, and how seriously should such polls be taken? We explain.
The Siena College and The New York Times conducted the survey among more than 3,662 voters from six states.
Around 48 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump in the next elections, while 44 per cent said they supported Biden’s re-election bid. When asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?”, 59 per cent said they disapproved and 38 per cent approved.
Further, 67 per cent of respondents said the current is headed in the wrong direction and is not on the right track. At the same time, 56 per cent of voters held an unfavourable view of Trump while 42 per cent favoured him.
When asked about the issues that are important when deciding on a candidate, a majority of the participants cited economic issues, such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living (57 per cent), over “Societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy” (29 per cent).
Around 52 per cent of voters also described the present US economy’s condition as “poor”. This is in spite of the fact that the US economy has made strong attempts to regain its pre-pandemic era growth levels and has done well on many counts. However, the relatively lower growth of middle-class incomes has been slower and inflation has persisted. Biden’s policy of government subsidies in a few industries has also come under some criticism.
Despite a less-than-flattering opinion of Trump, with significant sections of people believing that Trump poses threats to democracy and is bad for it, voters believed he could do a better job than Biden when it comes to the economy, immigration, national security, and the Israel-Palestine issue.
Similarly, while 59 per cent of people believed that the 77-year-old Trump was too old to be an effective President, 71 per cent thought this to be true for the 80-year-old Biden.
The New York Times also noted how the Biden-led Democratic Party’s traditional voting base, consisting of women, younger people, people of colour, etc., seemed to no longer be as supportive in the six states. “In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six,” it said.
To understand why a few states are noteworthy, it is important to understand how the US President is elected.
First, each state’s voters choose among various parties’ candidates on voting day. If voters of a particular state vote for, say, a Republican candidate, that translates into members of that state’s ‘electoral college’ voting for that person.
The Electoral College refers to a body that has members of both the major American parties – the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. It has 538 voters across the US, divided among states according to the number of seats each state has in the US Congress. Crossing the halfway mark — 270 — means winning the presidency.
Once it becomes clear which candidate has won the popular vote in a state, that candidate’s slate of potential electors is appointed as the State’s electors. They are then to vote for their own party’s candidate.
In general, it is known whether a state is likely to vote for Democrats or Republicans, based on past trends, demographics, etc. But some states can go either way – hence likely to ‘swing’. They are seen as key determinants behind choosing a winner.
But despite the polls, could results turn out differently?
Pre-election polling has often gotten its predictions wrong in elections across the world. But when it comes to Biden and Trump, another indicator has been of worry for the Democrats and Biden.
Approval rating, or the percentage of a population that approves of a leader, has been a popular means of measuring a President’s perception in the US for decades. From an approval rating of 53 per cent in January 2021, when Biden was sworn in as President, it stands at around 38 per cent. This is also despite the vocal opposition to Trump even during his presidency and his four convictions since in different cases – ranging from sexual abuse to hush money payments.
However, Democrats have defended their record, saying that even before the 2022 midterm elections – held for the federal US legislative bodies – the polls showed low approval levels for Biden. Despite this, the party did better than expected, retaining the US Senate and only allowing Republicans a slim majority in the House of Representatives.
